St Joe stock plunges over 20% in two days

Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by coondog, Oct 14, 2010.

  1. Lynnie

    Lynnie SoWal Insider

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    It's at 17.95 this morning. What are their earnings reports revealing ....and, how much cash do they have?
     
  2. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    The "earnings" reports are revealing YTD 2010, they've lost $33.2M ($0.36 per share). 196.4M in cash and cash equivalents.

    I'll let ROBERTSONDAVIES fill you in on the other details.

    .
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2010
  3. robertsondavies

    robertsondavies Beach Fanatic

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    I suggested shorting JOE in 2005 to people on this board, as an alternative to selling their south walton home. I choose to sell my south walton home, as it was a 2nd home.

    A few days ago, near the market peak, with Joe trading between 19 and 20 a share all day, a wide range, I suggested that you should buy JOE and put it away for 50 years. Since that time, the market has gone down 8 straight days in a row, and Joe has gone from the 19 range, to the 17 range. YAWN.

    RE: Einhorn, yes he's smart, but he was also browbeating people in 2004 who nailed the short thesis on Subprime Mortgage lenders. Do you want to guess what he thought? He thought people like Accredited Home Lenders and New Century had bulletproof business models, and chastised young analysts in my office who had done some work and presented a thesis that there may be a problem developing. So from my experience, Einhorn is an arrogant often way wrong little douche bag... feel free to short now, he'l probably be buying to cover whatever you borrow to sell.
     
  4. coondog

    coondog Beach Lover

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    Dow Jones is up 5.5% year-to-date while Joe is down 39.6% year to date.
     
  5. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    ....and CROX is up 180% YTD...is this a crazy world or what?

    The question is: Will CROX stock price beat JOE's before years's end? Currently CROX is $16.20; JOE is $17.90.

    With Einhorn and his buddies playing with JOE like a yo-yo it's entirely possible. He said the stock is worth $7-$10, so he' still has room to play.
     
  6. robertsondavies

    robertsondavies Beach Fanatic

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    ummmm.... I suggested JOE a few days ago. In that time frame, it is down like 7% while the DOW is down 5%. negligible difference, and what I'd expect from a heaviy shorted stock. JOE is to be bought here, not sold.
     
  7. robertsondavies

    robertsondavies Beach Fanatic

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    Yeah, he's going to be completely honest with his publicly stated downside target as a short seller.

    If JOE is not worthless, there are only a few people on the planet who NEED to buy JOE at some point, and that would include Einhorn, and perhaps anybody who took my advice 5 years ago and shorted JOE.

    :cool:
     
  8. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    Welcome back to the playground.

    Just for the fun, on the day I proposed the JOE/INTC throwdown, I made a Fantasy Portfolio (FP) of the two stocks.

    I put $2K in each stock at the closing price on Nov 4th (the day you named as the start date matching JOE against a list of nose-bleeding high-flyers).

    You turned down my proposal to pit INTC against JOE, instead wanting to offer JOE against SPY, (which I declined--because apparently in some parallel universe--I upgraded JOE to a buy :roll:) I added $2K of SPY to the FP (also using the Nov 4 closing price).

    The FP results as of closing today:

    STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

    INTC/$2015.73/+0.79%

    SPY/$1,967.78/-1.61%

    JOE/1,776.89/-11.16%
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2010
  9. robertsondavies

    robertsondavies Beach Fanatic

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    So you've become one of those high frequency traders shell?

    Anyhow, the fantasy account idea is great.. let's track how these do.

    The JOE will outperform the SPY bigtime over the next year or 10. INTC is also a great pick from its depressed level, especially with the 10 year treasury trading at 37 X 2020 earnings... i like INTC too.

    JOE and IINTC,

    going on a cruise I'll check back in 10 days... a watched pot never boils
     
  10. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    Ahoy!

    If I think of it, I'll post a weekly update on the portfolio...I'll be reinvesting the dividends back into the stocks.

    Planned on tracking them at least until the date mentioned in the wager thread--end of May 2011. 10 years? Maybe. 50 years?...no can do--I'll be out touring in my brass-handled Cadillac.

    Bon Voyage!

    Enjoy your cruise & turkey day.

    Shel.
     
  11. Busta Hustle

    Busta Hustle Beach Fanatic

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    there is an ogoing interesting bit of "reasearch" being done by the justice department on insider trading and other wall street activities and guess whose name keeps on popping up?
     
  12. beachFool

    beachFool Beach Fanatic

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    Plus the Dow pays these nice little things called dividends.
     
  13. beachFool

    beachFool Beach Fanatic

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    One individual stock can outperform an index like the S&P 500 because owning an individual stock has more risk than owning a basket of 500 stocks.

    Will an investor be rewarded for taking that additional risk?

    Most of the time-no.

    It's your money if you like giving it away be my guest.:wave:
     
  14. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    ...that's why I own both--individual (high-quality mostly dividend-paying) stocks & market indexes (foreign & domestic).

    Not everyone could or should own individual stocks. I personally like having individual stocks because they add some pizazz (and dividends) to the portfolio and I have a pretty well-diversified bunch, so I sleep soundly.

    Now, when one speaks of JOE--then that's a whole other thing entirely.

    .
     
  15. Busta Hustle

    Busta Hustle Beach Fanatic

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    also once you know how the bubble "system" works it is easy to swoop in after the crash and pick up individual stocks that are favored by the ibanks and thusly guaranteed profits with their relationships with the fed. Plus you can pick up a few other honest companies that just happen to loose stock price when the whole market crashes. It does not take alot of smarts just a stomach for being a part of the game.
     
  16. Lynnie

    Lynnie SoWal Insider

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    Busta hustle, is Joe under investigation for insider trading? Is this what you're implying?
     
  17. Busta Hustle

    Busta Hustle Beach Fanatic

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    no Lynnie but the hedge funds that are shorting Joe heavily are.
     
  18. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    ...so, the insiders at JOE are telling the hedgies that the company is a piece of crap worth shorting?

    .
     
  19. BeachTrader

    BeachTrader Beach Crab

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    All the debate about whether or not the 'insiders' are manipulating St. Joe's stock is pointless to us 'outsiders'. Instead, why not focus only on the price action? Some of the top traders in the world are trend followers. This method is time-tested and proven to work equally well on for stocks, currencies, commodities, etc. One does not need to know anything about the fundamentals of the underlying markets being traded.
     
  20. Smiling JOe

    Smiling JOe SoWal Expert

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    Shelly, you are starting to sound like people who looked at their home value every day. I thought it was supposed to be about time in the market, not timing the market.
     

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