I also believe that the next FED move will be down, and I?ve lost my fair share by ?sticking with Cramer.? I?m watching TMA. If we see a dividend cut this fall and the yield curve begins to return to normal, I?ll pick some up ? just a little.;-)
The Message of the Stock Market.......
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bdc63
No where, no how, no way did I say Fed Funds are going back to 1% !!! They will not see that level again unless there is an exogenous event similiar or worse than 9/11. You are confusing the price of real estate (lots,houses ) with the price of equities when YOU talk about asset bubbles !!! My entire thesis is related to stock prices NOT house prices. The next cycle in real estate prices will revert to the mean and NOT duplicate the exagerated increases of the last 5 years because of the historically low rates. I expect a 50% return on housing stocks over the next 3 years or 4 years.....not an excessive return if my thesis materializes.
No where, no how, no way did I say Fed Funds are going back to 1% !!! They will not see that level again unless there is an exogenous event similiar or worse than 9/11. You are confusing the price of real estate (lots,houses ) with the price of equities when YOU talk about asset bubbles !!! My entire thesis is related to stock prices NOT house prices. The next cycle in real estate prices will revert to the mean and NOT duplicate the exagerated increases of the last 5 years because of the historically low rates. I expect a 50% return on housing stocks over the next 3 years or 4 years.....not an excessive return if my thesis materializes.
Your original post (#33) said "the stocks have all traded up recently. They are washed out. Worst case is dead money for six months. Best case 50% gain, or more, in 18months when the Fed starts lowering 1"st qtr 2007." I engaged you because I thought that was an absurd statement (and still do). Then in post 38 you extended your timeframe to 2 to 4 years, and in post 42, to 3 to 4 years. I don't have any opinion about what will be happening to builder stocks in Sept of 2010, so I'll leave this debate to others at this point that have similar inventment windows as you.
Again, good luck with this.
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I'd be interested in hearing your thesis that's going to produce a 50% return in home builders over 3-4 years. The builders are busy unloading their land options and taking losses and trying to lure in buyers with GCT, cars and shiny beads--there goes, at the very least, 1 year of your returns. (I'm well aware that existing homes are no competition for the builders--but even so, there's a heck of a lot of inventory out there to clear and spec buyers who snapped up contracts by dozen in the past are cowering in the corner licking their wounds.) And home builders don't seem too happy lately either: Housing Market Index
I know you like to buy straw hats in the winter, but IMO there's still too much "upbeat" talk about the housing market to expect double-digit y-o-y returns on big builders over the next 3 years. Having said that, little builders who are ripe for acquisition may be a better play, albeit a pretty risky play should they decide to ride the slippery slope down to bankruptcy.
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I think we have beaten this theme into a dead horse. I have placed some bets and publicly posted them ( while others only talk about what they have done with the benefit of hindsight ). Check in 18 months from now and see the results. BDC63....We are only expressing opinions here, no need to be nasty. Opinions are just that....opinions not absurdities. My time frame is 3 years, to make 50% or more on my original entry points. my 3 bets (joe,dhi,hov) are up 10% from my cost basis posted on Aug. 10. That could change tomorrow....that is the nature of the stock market. It is not everyone's cup of tea. Good luck to all with your investments.
I have an idea. Similiar to the Chess games at the Cerulean, why don't some of us meet to discuss investment ideas and theories. This seems to be a very impassioned and intelligent group on this thread and who knows, we all may learn a thing or two. Anyway, it could be fun and profitable. I will be in Grayton Sept 19 thru Oct 19. What do you think ???
Sounds like funn, but my cover would be blown :shock: . Of course I can show up in disguise -- maybe "The Loan Ranger"
For the record....took my profits today in my housing stocks. After the huge run up in housing stocks in last 6 weeks, I decided to book my profits. Averaged 15%-20% on the individual trades. They ran up too far too fast. Still holding my buy write in JOE until late October. If the stocks come back down I will consider doing it again.
For the record....took my profits today in my housing stocks. After the huge run up in housing stocks in the last 6 weeks, I decided to book my profits. Averaged 15%-20% on the individual trades. They ran up too far too fast. Still holding my buy write in JOE until late October. If the stocks come back down I will consider doing it again.