The action of the housing stocks (joe, kbh, tol, bzh, dhi, hov, phm, ctx ) is telling us the Fed is finished raising rates. The market is also telling us that there will be a recovery in housing in the spring of 2007. The next major move in rates is DOWN. The Fed's work of the last 2 years raising rates has slowed the economy and tempered housing. The economic statistics will contine to deteriorate as well as the housing statistics but make no mistake about it, the recovery is coming in 2007. The Fed will begin lowering rates in the spring to generate growth. We will experience a growth rexession, which means GDP growth of 1-2%. We will NOT have a full blown recession...the FED will make sure of that. The stock market is a forecasting mechanism. The dawn is coming !!!
