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bdc63

Beach Fanatic
Jun 12, 2006
303
22
Md for now, but dreaming of SoWal
I was looking for some info on a mortgage lender that I heard went under, when I stumbled onto this website.

http://ml-implode.com/ The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter

The site identifies the 12 lenders that have "imploded" since Dec '06, as well as at-risk lenders. They also have links to what they call "The Top Mortgage Banking Bust News and Commentary", as well as links to blogs on the Housing and Credit Busts.

Thought some of you might find it interesting.
 

bdc63

Beach Fanatic
Jun 12, 2006
303
22
Md for now, but dreaming of SoWal
New subprime implosion story. HSBC (this planet's 3rd largest bank) has just announced that 'loans-gone-bad' is much worse than thought just 2 months ago. They're upping their estimate by 20%. This is expected to be market-moving today (both in Europe and US).

Update: the implode-o-meter is now up to 18.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ar.WRLz45vtA&refer=home

HSBC Says Bad-Loan Charges to Exceed Analysts' Estimates by 20%

By Christine Harper
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, said it's increasing loan-loss provisions for 2006 because mortgages to risky borrowers in the U.S. are going bad faster than the company expected only two months ago.
Provisions will be 20 percent higher than the $8.8 billion that analysts now estimate, London-based HSBC said in an e-mailed statement.
``It is clear that the level of loan-impairment provisions to be accounted for as at the end of 2006 in respect of Mortgage Services operations will be higher than is reflected in current market estimates,'' the bank said in the statement.
HSBC, the world's No. 3 bank by market value after New York- based Citigroup Inc. and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp., bought Household International Inc. for $15.5 billion in 2003. The purchase of the Prospect Heights, Illinois- based company, a lender to consumers with lower-than-average credit ratings, left HSBC more vulnerable a slowdown in house price growth.
To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net .
 
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Mango

SoWal Insider
Apr 7, 2006
9,712
1,360
New York/ Santa Rosa Beach
I was looking for some info on a mortgage lender that I heard went under, when I stumbled onto this website.

http://ml-implode.com/ The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter

The site identifies the 12 lenders that have "imploded" since Dec '06, as well as at-risk lenders. They also have links to what they call "The Top Mortgage Banking Bust News and Commentary", as well as links to blogs on the Housing and Credit Busts.

Thought some of you might find it interesting.

That site is put up by someone who isn't making it selling mortgages or lead generation, so now looking to get advertisers on that site. :roll:
 

bdc63

Beach Fanatic
Jun 12, 2006
303
22
Md for now, but dreaming of SoWal
That site is put up by someone who isn't making it selling mortgages or lead generation, so now looking to get advertisers on that site. :roll:

I've been reading Aaron's blogs and posts on various sites for some time now. I seriously doubt he has ever tried to "make it selling mortgages or lead generation." (there is a link to his profile on the site).

He's been looking for the tipping point, and has identified this subprime implosion as "it". It certainly is possible, and many of the more extreme 'housing-led-financial-apocalypse' people beleive the same thing. I for one am going to watch closely.

By the way, since I posted this HSBC update a few hours ago, another subprime lender has gone "kaput", so now we're up to 19.
 
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bdc63

Beach Fanatic
Jun 12, 2006
303
22
Md for now, but dreaming of SoWal
when it rains, it pours ...

New Century Financial's stock is down 30% today on this news:

http://www.latimes.com/business/inv...64488.story?coll=la-headlines-business-invest

New Century to restate earnings

The 'sub-prime' lender says it failed to properly record losses when it was forced to buy back mortgages last year.
By E. Scott Reckard, Times Staff Writer
February 8, 2007


In another big mortgage-industry setback, New Century Financial Corp. said Wednesday that it would reduce the profit it had reported for the first nine months of 2006 and record a surprise loss for the final quarter because it had understated the damage caused by a recent rash of soured loans.

Irvine-based New Century is the second-largest lender after Wells Fargo & Co. in the so-called sub-prime mortgage market, for borrowers with credit flaws or other high-risk characteristics. It postponed release of its fourth-quarter earnings, which had been scheduled for today, to an "undetermined future date" and didn't estimate how big its loss would be.

New Century put out the news after the stock market closed. Its shares gained 13 cents to end at $30.16 in regular trading. After hours, the stock plunged nearly 16% to $25.46.

The company said it had failed to account properly for losses sustained when loan buyers forced it to buy back mortgages that quickly went into default. The rising volume of such repurchases has plagued the sub-prime industry recently and drove Ownit Mortgage Solutions Inc. of Agoura Hills, another large sub-prime lender, into bankruptcy proceedings.

New Century said it also would write down the value of the residual interests it retains in loans that have been used to create the mortgage-backed securities that have found eager buyers around the world.

As the housing market cooled over the last year and competition intensified for a shrinking number of mortgage borrowers, some lenders provided loans on overly easy terms to unqualified buyers, analysts have said. Some of these buyers, particularly those who purchased homes for the first time with low or no down payments, are believed to have stopped paying their mortgages when housing prices declined.

For the first three quarters last year, New Century had reported earnings of $268 million, or $4.72 a share, down from $297 million, or $5.10, in the comparable period of 2005. It said it hoped to file amended reports by March 1.

Wall Street analysts had expected a profit of 34 cents to $1.64 a share for the fourth quarter, with an average of $1.08, down from $2 a share a year earlier.
 

hi n dry

Beach Lover
Sep 12, 2005
201
27
Does anyone know the proportion of sub prime mortgages we have on 30A in comparison the the national average?
 

destinsm

Beach Lover
May 23, 2006
92
1
Does anyone know the proportion of sub prime mortgages we have on 30A in comparison the the national average?


This article may give you some related data, but not exactly what you are looking for... I know it is a bit dated, but it shows how speculative this market from Pcola to Panama City is and has been...

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/06/06/Columns/New_rage_in_mortgages.shtml

From the article:

"In other parts of Florida, the boom in interest-only mortgages is even more intense. In Fort Lauderdale, a third of home buyers used interest-only mortgages last year, while 6.7 percent used them in 2001. In Panama City, 60 percent of home buyers chose interest-only loans in 2004, up from just 5 percent in 2001.
And in what may be Florida's most speculative area for real estate investing - Fort Walton Beach, located between Pensacola and Panama City - 71 percent of mortgage borrowers tapped interest-only loans in 2004. In 2001, only 1.9 percent chose them.
That's the highest percentage of interest-only loans in any market nationwide tracked by LoanPerformance."
 

bdc63

Beach Fanatic
Jun 12, 2006
303
22
Md for now, but dreaming of SoWal
And the point to all of this? :dunno:

Everybody has been trying to figure out if we are having a hard or soft landing in real estate ... have we bottomed out or is there another leg down yet to come? Important questions to ponder, whether you are a buyer or a seller (or a good RE agent wanting to provide sound information to his/her clients).

Maybe a subprime collapse has little or no direct impact in the South Walton area ... I don't know. But it is certainly a piece in the puzzle of the bigger questions ...

... will we have a recession? ... will the consumer stop spending? ... will housing prices decline in '07? ... will liquidity dry up? ... is unemployment going to rise? ... will loan standards change? ... will loan problems seep into areas other than subprime? ... is the Fed's next move to raise or lower? ... what's going to happen to the US$?

I spend a lot of time trying to connect these dots. (I know, "get a life", right?)
 
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SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
Maybe a subprime collapse has little or no direct impact in the South Walton area ... I don't know. But it is certainly a piece in the puzzle of the bigger questions ...

Brings to mind an old rhyme:

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
 
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