i didn't realize you have a 3 year time horizon with your trades. With that in mind, I don't think your strategy is too unreasonable at all... I try to call tops and bottoms in stocks, and don't always get it right. I shorted JOE at 81 and covered nervously only 4 points lower, so I left a lot on the table there..
I shorted again at 60, added to short position yesterday before earnings in the mid 50's and added the 3rd leg of this trade today in the $52 range...
So in a sense, we're both scaling into our positions. If I had a crystal ball, i would have put my entire acct. short on JOE months ago but I don't.
Seems that all we disagree about is the direction of the stock... and I can't say I will be right, just looking at 138 months of inventory now on the books in South Walton, and I feel that the next move in St. Joe will be down, but I realize that there is a valuation buffer which is somewhere north of the timber value of their land, so probably not as low as I have previosly cited...
I think your $48 target as a bottom, is probably closer than my previous target of $30 to what actually forms as a bottom on the name - I was just probably cheerleading due to my short position vested interest. My best honest guess is that it goes down another 15%, and hence why I am risking even more capital on that bet today.
I shorted again at 60, added to short position yesterday before earnings in the mid 50's and added the 3rd leg of this trade today in the $52 range...
So in a sense, we're both scaling into our positions. If I had a crystal ball, i would have put my entire acct. short on JOE months ago but I don't.
Seems that all we disagree about is the direction of the stock... and I can't say I will be right, just looking at 138 months of inventory now on the books in South Walton, and I feel that the next move in St. Joe will be down, but I realize that there is a valuation buffer which is somewhere north of the timber value of their land, so probably not as low as I have previosly cited...
I think your $48 target as a bottom, is probably closer than my previous target of $30 to what actually forms as a bottom on the name - I was just probably cheerleading due to my short position vested interest. My best honest guess is that it goes down another 15%, and hence why I am risking even more capital on that bet today.
