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Here4Good

Beach Fanatic
Jul 10, 2006
1,264
529
Point Washington

passin thru

Beach Fanatic
Jun 12, 2007
343
126
from the excellent www.crownweather.com [bold emphasis added]:

Radar and satellite imagery over the last 12 to 18 hours indicate that the disturbance in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has become much better organized and is now considered a Tropical Depression.

The excellent radar presentation and deep convection seen on satellite imagery indicates to me that this will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette probably as early as late this morning. Overall wind shear is quite low and the intensity guidance from SHIPS, LGEM, HWRF and GFDL all indicate that this storm will make landfall as a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm this evening on the Florida Panhandle between Destin and Panama City.

With that said, I am concerned that with the low shear and downright hot Gulf of Mexico waters that more rapid strengthening is possible than what is being forecast. So, folks along the Florida Panhandle should keep very close tabs on this system and in my opinion make preparations for a high end Tropical Storm or a low end Category 1 Hurricane. (65 to 80 mph).
 

beachmouse

Beach Fanatic
Dec 5, 2004
3,499
741
Bluewater Bay, FL
While the NHC never officially downplays a storm, if there's a lack of the phrase ' PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.' in the public advisories, it's usually a sign that they expect a storm to be more messy than dangerous. And no signs of that message in the first advisory for this one.

My guess is that it'll be maybe slightly more intense than TD 10 in 2007, and he big question about that one was whether the night's high school football games should be cancelled/postponed. (About half the games went off as scheduled even though there was a tropical storm warning up)
 
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