Tropical Storm Fay

[TreeFrog]

Notice the latest jogs back to the west for four of the models which at one time were showing a north progression up the east coast.

Those all happened on last night's 2AM EDT model runs. They should post the 8AM model runs shortly.

Jeff Masters has been commenting that an upper level low has been stuck over the Eastern US for weeks, and has resulted in the jet stream recurving systems northward quite early in their travels to the west. But he's repeatedly said that an upper level high is expected to replace the low, probably by tomorrow. That is expected to delay recurvature by pushing systems to the south and allowing them to continue their westward travels. He's been specific that this means systems are more likely to get into the gulf. See his 8/13 blog at www.wunderground.com/blogs.

So, it looks to me like the 2AM model runs now expect the arrival of the high pressure ridge and the resulting shift in the jet stream. Not what we'd like to see.

 

[beachmouse]

The sooner a system organizes, the sooner it gets pulled poleward. And since 92L isn't organizing as quickly as a lot of people expected, the models trended westward overnight.

Interesting position of the blob right now- Hispanola and the mountains of eastern Cuba are coming up, and they're high enough to tear apart many an existing storm or prevent other storms from forming.

 

[Smiling JOe]

The model map in post 6, above, has been updated to show the 8am (eastern) models. Looks like beachsio2's peeps might be worth keeping around. BeachSi02, you should chime in with that advanced data more often.

 

[daytripper]

 

[BeachSiO2]

The model map in post 6, above, has been updated to show the 8am (eastern) models. Looks like beachsio2's peeps might be worth keeping around. BeachSi02, you should chime in with that advanced data more often.

Thanks! I will and have a few times in the past. To be honest with you, I always check the storm threads on here, but usually don't have much to add since the other projections are pretty similar to the one I get. I will throw in my "buffalo nickel" when I see something that is different.

 

[Alicia Leonard]

Thanks! I will and have a few times in the past. To be honest with you, I always check the storm threads on here, but usually don't have much to add since the other projections are pretty similar to the one I get. I will throw in my "buffalo nickel" when I see something that is different.

Since I kinda know you, does that mean I know people, who know people, who know people?

 

[BeachSiO2]

Since I kinda know you, does that mean I know people, who know people, who know people?

I don't know who I know that you may know. But by kinda knowing you, I think we both know a few people who know us and know people. The real question is did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

 

[Alicia Leonard]

I don't know who I know that you may know. But by kinda knowing you, I think we both know a few people who know us and know people. The real question is did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

I don't know

People knowing people.
Buy water and beanie weenies they say.
Cantore appears.

 

[ASH]

If the Weather Channel Hurricane model is accurate, the center of the cone goes right over the Keys and possibly up the Western coast. They state that there are too many unknowns this early in the development as well.

 

[BeachSiO2]

I don't know

People knowing people.
Buy water and beanie weenies they say.
Cantore appears.

Although I appreciate creativity, was that supposed to be an haiku? If so your cup runneth over by a few syllables. How about this.

Drama increasing
Lights, Camera, Action, Go
Stormtracker appears

or

Stay away Ms. Faye
No vacancy in Sowal
Unwelcome tourist