Tropical Storm OPHELIA

[Smiling JOe]

Looks like Ophelia still has an equal probability of going any direction.:shock: It is just sitting there.

 

[Dave Rauschkolb]

Any surf reports Dave?

Mostly continuing northeast winds; perhaps the Yucatan Peninsula will be going off!


GMZ750-770-081430-
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN OUT TO 20 NM-
330 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2005

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION

TODAY
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

TONIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS SMOOTH TO A LIGHT CHOP.

FRIDAY
NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS SMOOTH TO A LIGHT CHOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS SMOOTH.

SATURDAY
NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY
NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

 

[aquaticbiology]

wind from the north - break out the vinegar!

 

[wetwilly]

wind from the north - break out the vinegar!

Yep. White vinegar is the way to go with the dog flies!!! We used it all of last weekend and it worked great but does require frequent reapplication. The smell was not too bad and was more tolerable than the biting. :clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1:

 

[SlowMovin]

I have a theory about tropical storm and hurricane forecasts. I would really like to hear from someone more knowledgable about the meteorology bidness as to whether this is accurate.

First, there are a handful of computer models--BAM, GFDL, GFS, etc.--that are run throughout the day. They use data from Hurricane Hunter airplanes and weather satellites to simulate a computer-predicted track for the storm. This are shown in pictures that SJ & Kurt posted, above.

Second, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) looks at the results of these models as well as the raw data and then issues their predicted track. Typically, their track is a consensus, or "average", of all the models' tracks (although they may sometimes give a little more weight to one or the other). They do this four times every 24 hours (4:00 and 10:00 Central Time). Shown in the picture that SJ posted near the top.

Finally, EVERYTHING else you hear (Weather Channel, CNN, FoxNews, the guy on local TV with the bad hair, etc.) is nothing more than a re-hash of what the NHC said in its most recent update. So constant monitoring of those guys really gives you no further information (although if the storm is right on top of you, and they are monitoring via radar, they can give you warning of tornados or other immediate dangers).

Having said all that, is there any reason to look at anything other than NHC and/or the raw results of the models (which can be found at Crown Weather Services and WeatherUnderground among other places)?

 

[Kurt]

Having said all that, is there any reason to look at anything other than NHC and/or the raw results of the models (which can be found at Crown Weather Services and WeatherUnderground among other places)?

I don't think so. Although I like to watch the sat loops.

 

[wintersbk]

More weird weather:

NOAA ISSUES SPACE WEATHER WARNING;
POWERFUL SOLAR FLARE ERUPTS
KATRINA COMMUNICATIONS MAY HAVE BEEN AFFECTED
Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., Wednesday observed one of the largest solar flares on record at 1:40 p.m. EDT. The forecasters are predicting significant solar eruptions in the coming days. Agencies impacted by space weather storms may experience disruptions over the next two weeks. These include spacecraft operations, electric power systems, high frequency communications and low-frequency navigation systems.

 

[RiverOtter]

I didn't realize Hurricanes could move that extreme SW :?:

 

[Smiling JOe]

I have a theory about tropical storm and hurricane forecasts. I would really like to hear from someone more knowledgable about the meteorology bidness as to whether this is accurate.

First, there are a handful of computer models--BAM, GFDL, GFS, etc.--that are run throughout the day. They use data from Hurricane Hunter airplanes and weather satellites to simulate a computer-predicted track for the storm. This are shown in pictures that SJ & Kurt posted, above.

Second, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) looks at the results of these models as well as the raw data and then issues their predicted track. Typically, their track is a consensus, or "average", of all the models' tracks (although they may sometimes give a little more weight to one or the other). They do this four times every 24 hours (4:00 and 10:00 Central Time). Shown in the picture that SJ posted near the top.

Finally, EVERYTHING else you hear (Weather Channel, CNN, FoxNews, the guy on local TV with the bad hair, etc.) is nothing more than a re-hash of what the NHC said in its most recent update. So constant monitoring of those guys really gives you no further information (although if the storm is right on top of you, and they are monitoring via radar, they can give you warning of tornados or other immediate dangers).

Having said all that, is there any reason to look at anything other than NHC and/or the raw results of the models (which can be found at Crown Weather Services and WeatherUnderground among other places)?

I go right to the source, NOAA's NHC and I also like to gander at the models, but they are all over the place for most storms. Currently, all tracking models, except for the yellow one which has it going south around the pen. of FL and into the Gulf, show Opelia moving NE somewhat, before looping back around into FL. :shock:

 

[Beachlover2]

Ophelia is now slated to head towards S. Carolina over the next few days.