I believe the concept of being "Statistically Overdue" is simply marketing hype from Cantore. If I flip a coin five times and it comes up tails every time, what are the odds it will be heads the next time? It's still 50 percent. It's not any greater or less due to prior events. He wasn't talking about storm probabilities increasing due to climate change, which would be a different argument.
In any year there is a certain probability the gulf coast will be hit with a major storm (hence it could certainly happen and then Cantore can claim his "due" theory was right), but prior year storms or lack of them don't make that any more (or any less likely).
I realize my Dr. Master's quote was just short term. I quoted it as an example of his no non-sense style, not a long-term prediction. If Cantore wrote it, I think it would have been something along the lines of "All quiet in the tropics. We're not going to die .... yet."
I absolutely agree everyone should stay vigilant and have a hurricane plan, regardless of what happened previously.
In any year there is a certain probability the gulf coast will be hit with a major storm (hence it could certainly happen and then Cantore can claim his "due" theory was right), but prior year storms or lack of them don't make that any more (or any less likely).
I realize my Dr. Master's quote was just short term. I quoted it as an example of his no non-sense style, not a long-term prediction. If Cantore wrote it, I think it would have been something along the lines of "All quiet in the tropics. We're not going to die .... yet."
I absolutely agree everyone should stay vigilant and have a hurricane plan, regardless of what happened previously.
