You mention that if you are an end-user you would go ahead and buy, but if you are a flipper/investor... you should wait...
How do you come to this logic that a end user should sign up to lose money, but yet a flipper/investor should stay away...
I just don't get the logic of telling an end user he should sign up today when all market indications point to a major correction of prices over the next few years...
Not to put words into anyone's mouth but I don't think that anyone was implying that you will lose money if you are an end user. I think the point was that the current market is not conducive to short term returns (AKA flippers). The market being cyclical, right now we are in a low and if you aren't looking for the quick return and can sit until the market comes up again, you'll make money whether you're an end user or a traditional investor. "Buy low and sell high" is axiomatic to any investor seeking a profit. I didn't really see in your post if your question is related to a short term or long term investment goal. Maybe it's just.... I love Sowal, have always wanted a place there and maybe now I can afford it?
It's clear that it's a buyer's market. If you want a place, throw out offers with a good negotiator and somebody will bite at a below market price. They've been doing it all summer. We closed on a place yesterday that was asking $1.695 mil. The sold price was $1.275 mil. That's 75% of asking. It took some negotiation but the point is that there are many motivated sellers out there. The seller had paid $1.3mil in early 2004.
As to your question, is it a good time to wait: Nobody knows when the prices will turn upward. The odd thing is that when we look at overall AVERAGE Price, it isn't really going down, just the opposite. I think that's still the case, isn't it SJ? NUMBER of sales are what is dropping so bad so if the AVERAGE price of a home isn't going down, the question becomes should I try to grab one by a desperate seller now or gamble on the overall cost of a home to start going down in the sowal area?
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The Haas Center at the University of West Florida has released there 2007 predictions. They produce a plethora of data which is specifically geared towards the Northwest Florida market as opposed to national data.
You will note the upswing prediction for 1st quarter 2007 which places us above Jan 2003 but still below Jan 2004. Also, note that the data provided is the "number" of sales, not the average sale price. To answer you question related to lower prices: Yes, you are seeing asking prices that are lower as many sellers have lowered prices but the bulk have not lowered below SOLD comps. Prices were much higher in late 2004 and early 2005 but most didn't sell. This doesn't mean that the price of buying a home has gone down, it just means that the "asking" price has gone down. This is why the average prices are holding because the "sold" price is what determines statistical sales, not asking.
The entire article on Northwest Florida Real Estate Activity is at:
http://haas.uwf.edu/article.asp?articleID=232
More good stuff at:
http://haas.uwf.edu/
