WSJ article (07 Dec 2005)

[kirstenOn30A]

I'll find out some more information and then I will post it for you.

 

[SHELLY]

The fact that folks are auctioning off properties and condos (or using E-bay) is proof-positive that property owners have lost faith in the real estate profession's ability to get what they "think" or were "led to believe" their investments are worth. These investors are now forced to cast out a larger net to catch the dwindling supply of "greater fools."

 

[monty]

to monty:

So you would not buy anything now?
How much lower do you predict prices will be in a year?
Have you heard how those auctions worked out-did anyone show up ?

No, I would not buy now.

I predict prices will be 50% lower than the peak in 2004/early 2005 within the next two years. That will take price in the big developments back to $400 to $500 per square foot for near ocean properties. Oceanfront will fall even further due to the hurricane risk to levels similar to 2000/2001.

No clue on how the auctions went, but if the lots sold, I bet it wasn't a pretty picture. There are already lots in many of those areas for prices well below market highs. So, the auction lots, if sold, will be way, way below the high water mark. You have a couple of lots in Watercolor listed under $500k and they aren't selling, several in Watersound under or just over $500k, Alys Beach lots aren't selling by the developer, developer lots still available in Watercolor and Watersound that didn't sell in lotteries, and prices falling in Rosemary too. A real problem development is Cypress Dunes. Without beach access, the prices in this development will fall drastically.

 

[Just_In_Thyme]

No, I would not buy now.

I predict prices will be 50% lower than the peak in 2004/early 2005 within the next two years. That will take price in the big developments back to $400 to $500 per square foot for near ocean properties. Oceanfront will fall even further due to the hurricane risk to levels similar to 2000/2001.

No clue on how the auctions went, but if the lots sold, I bet it wasn't a pretty picture. There are already lots in many of those areas for prices well below market highs. So, the auction lots, if sold, will be way, way below the high water mark. You have a couple of lots in Watercolor listed under $500k and they aren't selling, several in Watersound under or just over $500k, Alys Beach lots aren't selling by the developer, developer lots still available in Watercolor and Watersound that didn't sell in lotteries, and prices falling in Rosemary too. A real problem development is Cypress Dunes. Without beach access, the prices in this development will fall drastically.

We sold our place on Hilton Head, because we found that at the time, the price per s/f was much cheaper here in SoWal. We bought a fantastic brand new house w/ocean views. You couldn't find anything like that back on HHI for the price. On top of that we fell in love with the beaches and the area in general. Now the prices here are comparable to what you find back on Hilton Head, or Kiawah Island. The friends I have there aren't freaking out about prices, or predicting a crash in real estate. So why is it such an obsession here?

I believe that prices here in SoWal were lagging because it was still relativley unknown. As it became more popular, prices started to skyrocket to catch up with everyone else. Now that it has caught up, prices are steadying and settling down to more reasonable levels. But falling 50% lower? I don't see it.

Talk about traffic on 30-A? Try getting on or off HHI during rush hour, it makes driving through Seaside in July a picnic.

 

[Camp Creek Kid]

We sold our place on Hilton Head, because we found that at the time, the price per s/f was much cheaper here in SoWal. We bought a fantastic brand new house w/ocean views. You couldn't find anything like that back on HHI for the price. On top of that we fell in love with the beaches and the area in general. Now the prices here are comparable to what you find back on Hilton Head, or Kiawah Island. The friends I have there aren't freaking out about prices, or predicting a crash in real estate. So why is it such an obsession here?

I believe that prices here in SoWal were lagging because it was still relativley unknown. As it became more popular, prices started to skyrocket to catch up with everyone else. Now that it has caught up, prices are steadying and settling down to more reasonable levels. But falling 50% lower? I don't see it.

Talk about traffic on 30-A? Try getting on or off HHI during rush hour, it makes driving through Seaside in July a picnic.

Here's my take--we had a REALLY bad summer starting with Allison, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita. Mix in a shark bite fatality, red tide, and a terrible year for yellow flies, well, SoWal just couldn't recover. This is in contrast to summer 2004 where prices and sales were way up even with Ivan. There wasn't a slow deceleration of the RE market over a few years--it came to a screaching halt within a few months. Everybody is a little freaked out.

 

[GreenWaveDave]

No, I would not buy now.

I predict prices will be 50% lower than the peak in 2004/early 2005 within the next two years. That will take price in the big developments back to $400 to $500 per square foot for near ocean properties. Oceanfront will fall even further due to the hurricane risk to levels similar to 2000/2001.

50% price decrease????? Now that's craaaaaaazy talk man!