Sambuca, that is a little more helpful information, but still not nearly enough to be able to give you good info. You seem to be caring only about upside potential. Nothing wrong with that, it just isn't the norm for my buyers. Here goes my brief thought (at least I hope that I can keep it brief) based only on upside potential for those three communitites. WaterColor is probably the least expensive of the three, and there are plenty of ammenities and parks, and pools. Because there are already many existing homes in there, and many of those are currently on the market, sellers may be more willing to offer some good prices. Some are spec homes with the builders still holding on to the deed. If the builder bought the lot prior to 2004 he may not have as much in it and can underprice the competition. St Joe is undercutting the people who have already bought in order to get more cash in the bank. Personally, I like many things that WaterColor has to offer, and for me, it would feel a little more like home to me with much more land used as trails, Western Lake access, Publix down the street and close to Seaside, and centrally located east/west along 30A. I couldn't live year round, because of the numerous reasons summed up as, it is a second home and rental community. I think WaterColor has many more natural features than the other two, and it may be more bang for your buck if you can shop around and find someone who desparately needs to sell.
Which brings me to Alys Beach thoughts. Being that it is so new, there are not desparate builders and owners in there who are trying to sell, so you won't be finding those sales contracts covered in blood. You will pay a substantial price. It is IMO, the most distinct development in Walton County. The buildings are concrete, and may withstand a major storm better. I am not a structural engineer, but I would rather be in one of those houses when the mother storm hit rather than a stick frame home in WaterColor. The homes in Alys look more similar to me than the homes in WaterColor and Rosemary. Probably because they are all white. I like the feeling when inside the homes and courtyards because of the white walls bringing in so much light, but when outside without sunglasses, I have a very different opinion for the same reason of the enhanced light reflection. I think Alys Beach may become the place in SoWal where the who's who end up buying because of the privacy provided by the courtyards. I can easily see international buyers buying up Alys Beach. You said that it has been a year since you have seen it. It is growing rapidly. The pool is not like any other I have seen in the US resorts. It is not complete but coming together quickly. Personally, if I were buying in Alys Beach, I would buy one of the larger "compound" lots toward the northern part of the development. It is easier to escape the crowds, but still fairly close to everything. Go take a look at the house which is under construction on the compound lot. It is not your typical home, and I like it more than most homes I have been in down here. You need to think outside of the box when exploring it.
Rosemary Beach -- Where else have architects had the freedom to design some dream homes? This is one of the most architectural diverse communities I have ever seen. The thing I most dislike is that overly-crowded feeling I get when driving or walking through there. I love to look at the houses, but I find the tight lots make it difficult to see all of the beauty of the designs. Unless I am in a house overlooking an open courtyard, I just couldn't live there, and even then, I would still find it challenging. That community and general area are growing quite a bit and feels much better than it did two years ago. Expect strong prices, and there will be some upside potential on the right properties.
My personal order of preference would be WC followed by Alys Beach, then Rosemary Beach, if these were the only three I considered.