people will continue to take vacations, and more will likely select drive-to destinations, rather than flying, so SoWal should continue to have it's share of visitors. The average visitor to SoWal is coming from a 500mi radius, so for math purposes, let's give them a 1000 mile, round trip to get to SoWal and back home. Gas prices last year were around $2.50 per gallon, and we will use your $4 per gallon for this year. The average SUV gets around 15 mpg, so 1000miles divided by 15mpg gives us a total fuel usage of 66 gallons for the round trip. Last summer, that would cost $165. This year, $266. I don't think $100 difference for a family of four will stop visitors. To help offset that $100, I have seen the price of rental units falling slightly as there is now more competition.
If gas prices were the only problem.....
I think overall inflation and rising unemployment are going to be the driving forces. Increases in not only fuel but also food, education, medical care, utilities, financial services, etc., are now just starting to be felt by consumers.
I think people will still come down for vacations, but I predict the vacations will be shorter and folks will economize more by eating in the condo rather than going out every day for one or two meals. Additionally, I think short-stay hotels and motels will do much better than condos and houses that require a full 7-day stay.
Moreover, I believe more people will be holding out for last-minute booking for four reasons
(1) To ensure they don't 'waste' a deposit if the weather happens to suck;
(2) to hopefully snag a last-minute cut-rate deal from desperate condo owners;
(3) to ensure they're still employed when vacation time rolls around;
(4) to ensure they've got money to cover the costs since credit is getting tighter and more expensive and HELOCs are being shut down.