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spinDrAtl

Beach Fanatic
Jul 11, 2005
368
2
A couple days ago I happened to be reading an article in the Atlanta Journal regarding the market in Panama City. There was a quote from Janet Roan, a local (PC, not Atl) real estate agent - "Now is the time to buy. It's a buyer's market." But she says, "If you are looking to buy something to flip it, don't even try it right now."

The catch? That article was from April 16, 2006.

There was another guy who had put contracts on 3 units in Panama City towers, pre-construction, each in the low 200k range. The article says the prices had tripled and then fell back but were still above his contract price. He said at the time he still expected to be able to sell at a comfortable profit although they were not yet completed. He was worried at the time that they may be overdeveloping the Panama City Beach area.

I'd like to see the AJC or some other organization do some follow up stories and talk to some of the same people interviewed previously. What does that agent think now? Did that guy close on his 3 properties and sell them or did he walk from his deposits? Is he stuck in 3 condos, eating a monthly mortgage while taking in some little bit of rent?
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
You have to remember that the Realtor was comparing the prices in 2006, to the recent historical highs of 2005. A Realtor cannot compare today's prices to the potential future prices. So was she wrong? Only in hind sight we know such things. If we could predict the future, we wouldn't be working.
 

Rambunkscious

Beach Lover
Jan 17, 2007
136
3
Thats why a grain of salt mixed in with investment advice is prudent.
The realtor thought she was right but history usually proves us all wrong.
A lot of realtors will just give you the facts, and let you decide, and I think this method is preferred.
 

spinDrAtl

Beach Fanatic
Jul 11, 2005
368
2
You have to remember that the Realtor was comparing the prices in 2006, to the recent historical highs of 2005. A Realtor cannot compare today's prices to the potential future prices. So was she wrong? Only in hind sight we know such things. If we could predict the future, we wouldn't be working.

Of course you can only compare to the past prices. I think I would have preferred someone to say 'Prices are down x% from the highs of 2005', not a definitive statement such as the one above. 'Now is the time to buy' seems to give an entirely different piece of information, intentionally or unintentionally. By making that statement, she actually seems to be comparing 'now' to some point in the future that she thinks she has foreseen, IMHO.
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
Of course you can only compare to the past prices. I think I would have preferred someone to say 'Prices are down x% from the highs of 2005', not a definitive statement such as the one above. 'Now is the time to buy' seems to give an entirely different piece of information, intentionally or unintentionally. By making that statement, she actually seems to be comparing 'now' to some point in the future that she thinks she has foreseen, IMHO.
You make a very good point.
 

trying2makeabuc

Beach Comber
Mar 25, 2007
29
0
Calling the bottom!

Enough Negativity. I am predicting we will hit the bottom of the market either this quarter or next! Definition -The total amount of totals sales of DSF homes will increase starting next qtr or the qtr after. That doesn't mean that house prices our at their lowest. Ex. If 3 homes sell in a qtr for $320 that's $960k in total sales. If next qtr 10 homes sell @ $300 each that is $3,000,000 in sales. And I am only talking about DSF homes. I think the condo market will take longer and the land market longer still.

Why? 1) prices are more realistic. After many months of lower prices and few sales, prices are acceptable- slightly above 2003 prices with a modest inflation rate. True vacationers think they can get a deal but aren't expecting a firesale 2) demand hasn't gone away, people are still renting like crazy here 3) the recession/ economy is only affecting certain segments. People have assessed their personal situations and have determined if they'll remain unscathed or not. I am seeing people look at making investments and other financial decisions 4) lower interest rates gets people thinking 5) I'm a contrarian - the negative news is so over the top it'll fade soon as a new news story takes over. It been taken account of in the US economy.

Let the arguing begin!
 
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