Area Foreclosures

[ClintClint]

I'm sorry but I don't agree with the End of Days scenarios. We are going into an era of realigning of the risk with the reward. Every bubble has speculators (buyers) and sources of funds (lenders). As long as the buyers believe in the bigger fool theory and the lenders can take a cut for providing the funds while perceiving to offload all the risk, a potential bubble will develop.
The artificial wealth creation in the real estate creates artificial wealth creation in other asset classes thru the use of home equity loan funds pushing artificial values even higher (i.e. stocks, collectibles, gold etc.)
Just like the creation and destruction of matter, this is in fact a zero sum game. The destruction of atrificial equity in real estate has resulted in the destruction of equity in most all asset classes. Even the pschological benefits of increased sense of well being and sense of financial security, are being counter-balanced now with duress.
Those who benefited are those who should pay. But as a society, we have chosen to try to mitigate the effects instead of letting assets come to an equilibrium. Apparently, we as a society are willing to accept lifestyle changes and inevitable regulatory constraints, along with Gawd knows what unintended consequences in the future. All from a sense of compassion for the financial "victims".
I'm not saying this compassion is misplaced. On the contrary, my view of the free market system with a dogma of greed and ultimate unaccountability, has been turned on it's head. This dogma is never preached or professed but is almost always practiced.
We must understand and accept the fact that we as a society are the ultimate collective losers in the zero sum game voluntarily, by decree, by confiscation, and changes in priorities and lifestyles. I am confident this will ultimately result in a better way for all. To believe otherwise robs me of optimism--and I won't allow that.

 

[AAbsolute]

...at present I envision a "bottom" more as matter of time than a matter of price. (Timewise I think at least another year and then flat for several more.) To even predict a price point would be to assume that the "vacation/second home/building lot" market was a "real market" to begin with and not just another speculative bubble like tech stocks and beanie babies. Last time I looked, JDS Uniphase (bubble price: $1,000) was $4-and-change; and Princess the Beanie Bear (bubble price: $700) could be had on Ebay for $3.99. Granted, RE is more tangible than the other two (although the Beanie Bear is pretty close), but it is not only more risky and expensive to carry, but also a depreciating asset that's not an "everyman's" investment--like so many investulators are now finding out.

The economic meltdown; global recession; RE Crash; Credit Crunch; Stock Market/Hedge Fund Collapse; Trillion-Dollar Bailout-a-Palooza; and Madoff-like schemes will totally change the dynamics of investment going forward. All the rules have been tossed away and we're entering uncharted economic waters. When the smoke clears, I think a high-priced "second/vacation home or investment lot" is the last thing the public-at-large will be seeking (or able) to acquire.

The RE-Free Money Frenzy has produced an over-abundance of vacation property all around the world. I know that many who live and vacation here think that this is the "only and most pristine" property worth buying on the face of the earth--truth be told, it isn't.

Please oblige me by plugging your thesis into mine:

Real Estate markets are local.
There is such a thing as micro-economics.
We have entered the Psychozoic Era, or Age of the Mind.
Internet Technologies will permit 1,000,000's of people to work from virtual offices.
The majority of people from the colder climates prefer mild winters.
If a family can be shown that they can earn an equal living and increase their quality of life with little effort they will choose the latter.
SoWal has young and adaptable infrastructure.
SoWal can only accommodate a population of 130,000 with it's future land use and developable land area.
History shows that a population of 130,000 is probable in places with geography and weather like SoWal's.
That beach is not easy to manufacture.

 

[AAbsolute]

I forgot one thing: People from the North who will be thinking about moving here don't have any idea that some people from the South are still thinking about the Civil War.

 

[scooterbug44]

Real estate markets may be specialized, but they are still affected by events outside their geographic area. Sowal is a different kind of market, but is still tied into the overall economy.

Yes, people from colder climates often prefer milder winters, but are also appalled by the summer's heat & humidity and hurricanes. Every discussion with my Northern relatives requires me to explain once again WHY this area's busy season is in the summer (as they consider the summer weather hellish) and my cell phone goes nuts w/ calls from all over the country every time a hurricane or tropical storm hits the national news.

We think this area is paradise, but not everyone likes the same things. My father remembers that we have great parks, but that it was too hot to stand in the shade in a swimsuit and drink a beer before it got warm. My mother loves the Seaside Rep, but thinks the ocean is too hot for swimming by May. Friends love to visit the beach, but are absolutely appalled by many of the ethnocentric or overly religious opinions on Sowal or in the papers.

Telecommuting's growth will be stunted by the lack of a good infrastructure. People who CAN live/work anywhere will chose a place w/ the exact benefits and amenities they want. Crappy internet & cell service, a high cost of living, and a lack of employment options will not effectively draw people as residents.

 

[AAbsolute]

Real estate markets may be specialized, but they are still affected by events outside their geographic area. Sowal is a different kind of market, but is still tied into the overall economy.

Yes, people from colder climates often prefer milder winters, but are also appalled by the summer's heat & humidity and hurricanes. Every discussion with my Northern relatives requires me to explain once again WHY this area's busy season is in the summer (as they consider the summer weather hellish) and my cell phone goes nuts w/ calls from all over the country every time a hurricane or tropical storm hits the national news.

We think this area is paradise, but not everyone likes the same things. My father remembers that we have great parks, but that it was too hot to stand in the shade in a swimsuit and drink a beer before it got warm. My mother loves the Seaside Rep, but thinks the ocean is too hot for swimming by May. Friends love to visit the beach, but are absolutely appalled by many of the ethnocentric or overly religious opinions on Sowal or in the papers.

Telecommuting's growth will be stunted by the lack of a good infrastructure. People who CAN live/work anywhere will chose a place w/ the exact benefits and amenities they want. Crappy internet & cell service, a high cost of living, and a lack of employment options will not effectively draw people as residents.

Sounds like we've identified what is in our control to improve on. Those things that are outside of our control are what they are. I'd say that over the coming 15 years we will see popoulation of 130,000 in SoWal.

 

[goofer]

"The economic meltdown; global recession; RE Crash; Credit Crunch; Stock Market/Hedge Fund Collapse; Trillion-Dollar Bailout-a-Palooza; and Madoff-like schemes will totally change the dynamics of investment going forward. All the rules have been tossed away and we're entering uncharted economic waters"

Shelly

Read your history of economics and the business cycle. All of the above has happened before and undoubtedly will happen again in the next 25 years. History always repeats itself but with different players. We have always muddled through and we will muddle through again.

 

[SHELLY]

"The economic meltdown; global recession; RE Crash; Credit Crunch; Stock Market/Hedge Fund Collapse; Trillion-Dollar Bailout-a-Palooza; and Madoff-like schemes will totally change the dynamics of investment going forward. All the rules have been tossed away and we're entering uncharted economic waters"

Shelly

Read your history of economics and the business cycle. All of the above has happened before and undoubtedly will happen again in the next 25 years. History always repeats itself but with different players. We have always muddled through and we will muddle through again.

Hi Goofer!

...I have no problem with "muddling," (I've positioned myself for the present scenario); it's the "I'm gonna get rich quick and retire in luxury at 35 by daytrading and flipping preconstruction condo contracts with zero percent down and absolutely no risk" and those who earn their living supporting that crowd that will be in for the shock of their lives.

.

 

[goofer]

Hi Goofer!

...I have no problem with "muddling," (I've positioned myself for the present scenario); it's the "I'm gonna get rich quick and retire in luxury at 35 by daytrading and flipping preconstruction condo contracts with zero percent down and absolutely no risk" and those who earn their living supporting that crowd that will be in for the shock of their lives.

.

Those people have long been flushed down the toilet or are on the cusp of same. It is going to take a good 2 or 3 more years for real estate to turn, imho. As far as the stock mkt, well you know........I am a bull. Worst is behind us. Too much money on the sideline waiting to get in again. Everyone knows 4th qtr of 2008 was terrible and that the first half of 2009 will suck also. Unemployment will still go higher but that is a lagging indicator. If the second half gets better the stock mkt will go up 40% from here in the next 24 months.

 

[SHELLY]

........I am a bull.

...there was never a doubt over all these years.

 

[goofer]

Lololol