Area Foreclosures

[goofer]

LOLOLOL

The bull needs the aluminum foil hat !!

 

[JoshMclean]

You guys should just meet behind the playground after school.

 

[30ashopper]

Those people have long been flushed down the toilet or are on the cusp of same. It is going to take a good 2 or 3 more years for real estate to turn, imho. As far as the stock mkt, well you know........I am a bull. Worst is behind us. Too much money on the sideline waiting to get in again. Everyone knows 4th qtr of 2008 was terrible and that the first half of 2009 will suck also. Unemployment will still go higher but that is a lagging indicator. If the second half gets better the stock mkt will go up 40% from here in the next 24 months.

Then you assume that this market downturn and corresponding recession will be the shortest of say the last 7 recessions? I was looking at lengths of bottoms recently, if this is an average market downturn, we've barly scratched the surface on bottom treading. If this is a really really bad downturn, all things point to much lower numbers. Another thing to consider, in terms of valuations based on earnings, the S&P is currently very overpriced. I'm not trying to poop on your bull attitude, just voicing my take. You can count me as one who is still very very defensive with all cash on the sidelines and purely doing short term spot trades.

 

[30ashopper]

Hi Goofer!

...I have no problem with "muddling," (I've positioned myself for the present scenario); it's the "I'm gonna get rich quick and retire in luxury at 35 by daytrading and flipping preconstruction condo contracts with zero percent down and absolutely no risk" and those who earn their living supporting that crowd that will be in for the shock of their lives.

.

Care to talk some markets? What are you putting money in these days Shelly?

 

[SHELLY]

Care to talk some markets? What are you putting money in these days Shelly?

Blue chip + Tangible Products + International Exposure + Good Balance Sheets + Dividends

...and a good backup in cash.

.

 

[30ashopper]

Blue chip + Tangible Products + International Exposure + Good Balance Sheets + Dividends

...and a good backup in cash.

.

So I take it you're long long on anything you own?

 

[SHELLY]

So I take it you're long long on anything you own?

..not "long-long" just long.

.

 

[goofer]

Blue chip + Tangible Products + International Exposure + Good Balance Sheets + Dividends

...and a good backup in cash.

.

Well shel, we are on the same page. Blue chip dividend payers like Pepsi Coca-Cola Johnson and Johnson Conoco Phillips Chevron MMM General Mills Microsoft Proctor and Gamble Pfizer Merck General Electric Boeing JP Morgan etc. Just started a position in Heinz today. I am not worried about the names in my portfolio. I don't own any individual foreign stocks, I have a Vanguard total foreign fund in my IRA. Always have some cash to deploy when the right opty comes along. I am bidding for more Pepsi under 50 and also Conoco Phillips under 48. Conoco should raise their dividend in early Feb to about $2.08 which will raise the yield to slightly over 4%. Pepsi will raise their dividend in May. One of my themes is to buy companies that raise the dividend every year but alas this year GE only committed to keeping the dividend intact throughout 2009 and did not raise it. BTW, Coke should also raise their dividend for the March 2009 payout.

 

[salidaco]

All this talk of "Long tangible products" and "international exposure" is gettin me hot!

 

[goofer]

Then you assume that this market downturn and corresponding recession will be the shortest of say the last 7 recessions? I was looking at lengths of bottoms recently, if this is an average market downturn, we've barly scratched the surface on bottom treading. If this is a really really bad downturn, all things point to much lower numbers. Another thing to consider, in terms of valuations based on earnings, the S&P is currently very overpriced. I'm not trying to poop on your bull attitude, just voicing my take. You can count me as one who is still very very defensive with all cash on the sidelines and purely doing short term spot trades.

The recession started in December 2007 according to the NBER......so if the recession ends in the 2nd half of 2009 it will be one of the longest of the post war era. The djii peaked in Oct of 2007 so this bear is no longer a cub. I appreciate your insight. The S&P trough earning should be about $55 to $60
in 2009 and those numbers are low estimates. Forward p/e's are very reasonable . I pick stocks and don't try to trade the mkt. If I can buy the stocks I mentioned at the levels I have bought them at in October and November , I am very pleased. Many of them yield over 5% and are the bluest of the blue. I believe the Oct/Nov lows will hold. Strictly my opinion and I an not pontificating to anyone else. I can live with my strategy.