CBO reforcast of Obama presidency

[30ashopper]

In 2014, at which point the White House projects a deficit of $570 billion, it’s now expected that CBO will show a number in excess of $700 billion. Five years later, in 2019, Obama’s budget concedes that the deficit will have widened to $712 billion; Democrats expect CBO to put the number over $1 trillion.

The cumulative impact could be substantial. The White House has already conceded that the Obama budget will produce deficits of about $6.9 trillion over 10 years. If the CBO projections were to add in the range of $1.5 trillion more, as some Democrats expect, that would be more than a 20 percent increase and would surely affect debate in Congress.

Make that $1 trillion more - David Rogers - POLITICO.com

8.5 trillion in debt and counting. These numbers will likely be revised upward again as we progress forward in the downturn. My bet would be that after it's all said and done, Obama will likely come close to doubling the national debt in eight years, which will in tern double the size of our annual interest payments, squeezing all the federal programs that are currently in crisis even further. This will not end well.

Find your kids, give them a hug, and apologize.

 

[BeachSiO2]

Make that $1 trillion more - David Rogers - POLITICO.com

8.5 trillion in debt and counting. These numbers will likely be revised upward again as we progress forward in the downturn. My bet would be that after it's all said and done, Obama will likely come close to doubling the national debt in eight years, which will in tern double the size of our annual interest payments, squeezing all the federal programs that are currently in crisis even further. This will not end well.

Find your kids, give them a hug, and apologize.

I'll add my bet. The Obama budget request will not be honored in it's entirety just like every other budget request from every other president. The Democrats will applaud the President for being bold in his framework but then gently remind him who it is that is responsible for drafting the actual appropriations bills and that authority does not reside at 1600 Pennsylvania, at least if the want to be re-elected.

Then the President will sign the bill saying, "Ladies and gentlemen, I honored your wishes putting forth a budget request based on my campaign promises. Unfortunately, Congress made decisions on reducing and removing priorities that would have made us a stronger nation..."

A portion of the public will love Obama for trying to fulfill the promises he laid out in the campaign, and a portion of the public will say Congress was smart in passing a smaller budget. Thus politics continues as usual and so are the Days of our Lives....

 

[traderx]

I wonder if you could ever find data from two different agencies of government that agreed?

The most recent data from bea.gov which is Q3 2008 indicates a deficit of $848 billion. If we keep spending constant over the next four years - which will not happen - the deficit would be >$2 trillion given the $750 TARP and Obama's $780 billion stimulus. And more to come. Lots of sausage to make.

Now the geniuses we call the Congress have decided to slap a 90% tax on well-heeled employees of companies that received bailout funds from the feds. Let me see if I can follow this: company gets in trouble; feds give them money; company pays employees bonuses based on whatever; fed taxes individuals 90% to get part of the money back. Congress is the same body that votes itself pay raises in midnight sessions, took itself out of social security and created its own retirement and has more staffers than the number of people in SoWal. Congress runs the postal service and Amtrak at deficits yet they are going to micromanage private companies.

Now, where did I put my musket?

House passes bill taxing AIG, other bonuses - Capitol Hill- msnbc.com

The bill levies a 90 percent tax on bonuses paid to employees with family incomes above $250,000 at companies that have received at least $5 billion in government bailout money.

"We figured that the local and state governments would take care of the other 10 percent," said Charles Rangel, D-N.Y.

Mr. Rangel's math is pretty good after all. :shock:

 

[Lynnie]

I'll add my bet. The Obama budget request will not be honored in it's entirety just like every other budget request from every other president. The Democrats will applaud the President for being bold in his framework but then gently remind him who it is that is responsible for drafting the actual appropriations bills and that authority does not reside at 1600 Pennsylvania, at least if the want to be re-elected.

Then the President will sign the bill saying, "Ladies and gentlemen, I honored your wishes putting forth a budget request based on my campaign promises. Unfortunately, Congress made decisions on reducing and removing priorities that would have made us a stronger nation..."

A portion of the public will love Obama for trying to fulfill the promises he laid out in the campaign, and a portion of the public will say Congress was smart in passing a smaller budget. Thus politics continues as usual and so are the Days of our Lives....

I agree 11 trillion percent.

 

[30ashopper]

I guess I'm still trying to get my head around how supporters can accept his projections of 8.4 trillion in added debt for all his programs. At the very least you would think they would damand a more balanced budget through higher taxes. Regardless of what Congress does, (and I doubt seriously this congress will curtail Obama's spending by much if at all) it seems odd that after 8 years and 4 trillion under Bush, the country is willing to accept another 8 trillion under Obama, especially considering all the financial problems the federal government faces.

 

[BeachSiO2]

I guess I'm still trying to get my head around how supporters can accept his projections of 8.4 trillion in added debt for all his programs. At the very least you would think they would damand a more balanced budget through higher taxes. Regardless of what Congress does, (and I doubt seriously this congress will curtail Obama's spending by much if at all) it seems odd that after 8 years and 4 trillion under Bush, the country is willing to accept another 8 trillion under Obama, especially considering all the financial problems the federal government faces.

Let me answer the with the response that is growing as old for me as the words "Maverick" and "Joe the Plumber" did during the election cycle. Well it grew 4 trillion under Bush and no one was screaming while he was funding some war that no one likes, and now everyone is jumping up and down. It's unfair, stupid, childish [insert appropriate word here].

Somehow we miss the lesson from our parents that two wrongs don't make a right.

"Barry, just because little Georgie thought it was a good idea to make us go 4 trillion in the whole do you thank it's ok for you to keep us at $4 trillion?"

"No ma'am, I am shooting for $8"

Needless to say I am not a fan of the 4 or the 8 and believe that the current budget proposal is not going to survive as it is currently written, at least I hope not. Then again, I have been railing from the beginning and will once again echo that they have us focused on the stupid 1% of earmarks while Rome is burning our other 99%.

 

[30ashopper]

Let me answer the with the response that is growing as old for me as the words "Maverick" and "Joe the Plumber" did during the election cycle. Well it grew 4 trillion under Bush and no one was screaming while he was funding some war that no one likes, and now everyone is jumping up and down. It's unfair, stupid, childish [insert appropriate word here].

Somehow we miss the lesson from our parents that two wrongs don't make a right.

"Barry, just because little Georgie thought it was a good idea to make us go 4 trillion in the whole do you thank it's ok for you to keep us at $4 trillion?"

"No ma'am, I am shooting for $8"

Needless to say I am not a fan of the 4 or the 8 and believe that the current budget proposal is not going to survive as it is currently written, at least I hope not. Then again, I have been railing from the beginning and will once again echo that they have us focused on the stupid 1% of earmarks while Rome is burning our other 99%.

I read an interesting article today by some folks who have a very good record at predicting our current events, they were saying that they felt at some point the U.S. will fail to sell debt. Considering the Chinese and other holders are already trimming their holdings, the U.N. is discussing dumping the dollar as a reserve currency, and now we are officially into reflation - it seems all the more likely to me this may happen. In which case, Obama and the country hit a brick wall as our economy spins down into never never land. Yet, there's our fearless leader, giving big speeches convincing the country everything will be ok, and that healthcare must be fixed, and don't worry about those big debt numbers the experts are moaning about.

I agree with you completely. It's like we have not learned a thing - we've been duped into believing the best way to get out of the hole we dug is to dig deeper so we'll pop out in China and take a boat back or something. Plus, to make matters worse, the news is all about what Geitner knew and when, and hey yeah the stimulus will save us, and how soon can we expect a recovery? Which is just Iraq all over again - no analysis of what we are doing, just coverage of what we are doing. The country is completely oblivious. We rely entirely on government to tell the truth and to know best, so we can go hit the local Starbucks and ignore what our 401Ks are telling us.

These experts out there who understand what's going on, they are saying really really ugly, scary, doomsday scenario stuff. Yet everywhere I turn I keep hearing about recoveries, and I think, crap, when the 'you know what' really hits the fan, this country is going to get broad sided again, and I wonder what that will do, and how it will change things.

 

[traderx]

I read an interesting article today by some folks who have a very good record at predicting our current events, they were saying that they felt at some point the U.S. will fail to sell debt. Considering the Chinese and other holders are already trimming their holdings, the U.N. is discussing dumping the dollar as a reserve currency, and now we are officially into reflation - it seems all the more likely to me this may happen. In which case, Obama and the country hit a brick wall as our economy spins down into never never land. Yet, there's our fearless leader, giving big speeches convincing the country everything will be ok, and that healthcare must be fixed, and don't worry about those big debt numbers the experts are moaning about.

I agree with you completely. It's like we have not learned a thing - we've been duped into believing the best way to get out of the hole we dug is to dig deeper so we'll pop out in China and take a boat back or something. Plus, to make matters worse, the news is all about what Geitner knew and when, and hey yeah the stimulus will save us, and how soon can we expect a recovery? Which is just Iraq all over again - no analysis of what we are doing, just coverage of what we are doing. The country is completely oblivious. We rely entirely on government to tell the truth and to know best, so we can go hit the local Starbucks and ignore what our 401Ks are telling us.

These experts out there who understand what's going on, they are saying really really ugly, scary, doomsday scenario stuff. Yet everywhere I turn I keep hearing about recoveries, and I think, crap, when the 'you know what' really hits the fan, this country is going to get broad sided again, and I wonder what that will do, and how it will change things.

Hasn't the UN wanted to dump the dollar as reserve currency for years? It may now be prodded by Russia because Putin wants a world currency. What currency would then be the world's reserve?

Does China really have any choice when it comes to buying our bonds? We are its biggest import nation accounting for approximately one-third of all its exports.

In digging up some data, I came across some interesting info. As of 2007, guess which country is the largest exporter? Guess where the US ranks? Both surprised me.

When you look at the Great Depression and all the things that went wrong, at the top of the list was the Fed draining liquidity instead of injecting. It is clear this Fed will not repeat the mistake. Sooner or later, the economy will reinflate and we will dig our way out of this. Problem is, the huge deficit stimulus package will probably get the credit.

 

[traderx]

Link is to Treasury website page that shows national debt to the penny. This is always an enlightening site to visit.

Note that since 1/2/2009, our debt has increased $400 billion.

Government - Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)

 

[30ashopper]

Hasn't the UN wanted to dump the dollar as reserve currency for years? It may now be prodded by Russia because Putin wants a world currency. What currency would then be the world's reserve?

Does China really have any choice when it comes to buying our bonds? We are its biggest import nation accounting for approximately one-third of all its exports.

Hard to say, but after nearly doubling their exposure last year, their purchases have tapered off over the last few months.

In digging up some data, I came across some interesting info. As of 2007, guess which country is the largest exporter? Guess where the US ranks? Both surprised me.

When you look at the Great Depression and all the things that went wrong, at the top of the list was the Fed draining liquidity instead of injecting. It is clear this Fed will not repeat the mistake. Sooner or later, the economy will reinflate and we will dig our way out of this. Problem is, the huge deficit stimulus package will probably get the credit.

The amount of debt and credit destruction will far exceed anything the FED can manufacture. The FED is trying to prop up a debt bubble by borrowing trillions. In the end we'll be left with the aftermath of all the failed attempts in the form of massive public debt which will have to be repaid. If there's a recovery out there, it'll be anemic at best. Obama's administration will reach a breaking point, and we'll see a myriad of higher taxes in a myriad in creative ways. Income off federal tax revenue is seriously underestimated. Estimates of how much debt we'll finally take on with this plan are also, sadly, underestimated. We?re digging a hole to China to get out of the hole we dug. It?ll likely not end with "happy days are here again".

To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve?s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets.