State of SoWal Real Estate - Spring 2009

[Matt J]

This just in on Florida Trend:

? Gov. Crist Calls Florida Real Estate a Bargain [SP Times]
A prediction: You'll be kicking yourself in two or three years if you don't buy at today's prices. "When is the last time you recall Florida real estate being a bargain?" Crist said.

Yes Charlie, it was about 6-8 years ago. Blow all you want, you can't get that bubble up again.

 

[JoshMclean]

That is interesting. Will you please define that area, "from Destin through 30A?" When I run the numbers for Destin and all of South Walton, the reports are strong, but not as you claim. Maybe you include only areas south of 30A or something very unique.

Single family home sales for areas 14 (Destin),15 (South Walton West),16 (North SRB),17 (South SRB),18 (South Walton East).

March, 2005- 159 sales
March, 2006- 64 sales
March, 2007- 61 sales
March, 2008- 65 sales
March, 2009- 72 sales

 

[30ashopper]

Actual numbers are always appreciated over innuendo. Thanks Josh.

 

[fisher]

Single family home sales for areas 14 (Destin),15 (South Walton West),16 (North SRB),17 (South SRB),18 (South Walton East).

March, 2005- 159 sales
March, 2006- 64 sales
March, 2007- 61 sales
March, 2008- 65 sales
March, 2009- 72 sales

The March 2009 numbers don't look extraordinary at all. Seems like the usual spring uptick. March 2009 is within 10% of all prior years except 2005.

What happened to median and average prices compared to prior year? Also, has inventory changed very much compared to prior years? It seems that as soon as one house sells, another takes its place on the MLS. Until we see a serious reduction in inventory, seems that the downward trend in prices will continue.

Thanks for the info.

 

[TooFarTampa]

The March 2009 numbers don't look extraordinary at all. Seems like the usual spring uptick. March 2009 is within 10% of all prior years except 2005.

What happened to median and average prices compared to prior year? Also, has inventory changed very much compared to prior years? It seems that as soon as one house sells, another takes its place on the MLS. Until we see a serious reduction in inventory, seems that the downward trend in prices will continue.

Thanks for the info.

But those are are March closings, so it's not really the spring uptick period yet (maybe just the beginning of it). A lot of the spring deals close in May or June. So the anecdotal evidence is helpful too -- we'll just have to see how it goes.

You raise a good point about inventory entering the spring season. Anyone care to elaborate? Has it stabilized or even started to decline?

 

[JoshMclean]

Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

 

[30ashopper]

But those are are March closings, so it's not really the spring uptick period yet (maybe just the beginning of it). A lot of the spring deals close in May or June. So the anecdotal evidence is helpful too -- we'll just have to see how it goes.

You raise a good point about inventory entering the spring season. Anyone care to elaborate? Has it stabilized or even started to decline?

Actually, March historically is one of the best months for the spring bump, followed by June. Those two months compete for best month overall.

Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

Lots and lots of inventory to sell. You guys are going to make a lot of money while this whole thing unwinds. We have a ways to go though, 33 months of inventory based on March sales, which is one of the best months.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Josh, why do you include area 16, which is north Santa Rosa Beach, yet you don't include Pt Washington?

Also, looking at the numbers you are posting, you seem to be looking solely at the quantity sold for March each year. Your original statement was more open, if you go back and read it. It sounded as though this was the best month since 2005.

There are many months since 2005 which have seen more quantity of closings AND higher total dollar volume.

March was indeed a great month for closings. I think it is more accurate if you can be specific in your details, including not only quantity of sales, but also including total dollar volume. "The best month yet" could mean that we saw three times the number of sales, but total volume could be down 50%, so any number alone doesn't tell us much.

Just my two cents.

 

[Busta Hustle]

SO IN SUMMARY:

realtors: blogidy blog blog, wowee short term yippee!

shelley: one man's shiete is another's shinola, you can't bs a bser, blogidy blog blog charlie tool.

seems like the more things change the more they stay the same. blogidy blog blog.

 

[TooFarTampa]

SO IN SUMMARY:

realtors: blogidy blog blog, wowee short term yippee!

shelley: one man's shiete is another's shinola, you can't bs a bser, blogidy blog blog charlie tool.

seems like the more things change the more they stay the same. blogidy blog blog.

I was just thinking the other day that we all have gotten pretty predictable. Maybe now is a great time to ... talk about something new.