State of SoWal Real Estate - Spring 2009

[30ashopper]

You can also keep track of comps yourself (with a one month or so lag time) on the walton county appraisers site.

Walton County Parcel Maps

Also tracke the lot sheets:

http://hotlist.sellingdestinfl.com/Lots&LandHotlist.htm

Currently looks like there's one in there for around $180K. (..and dropping fast! )

 

[Lynnie]

Josh, for grins and giggles, can you retrieve the numbers back to 2001?

Thanks!

 

[traderx]

Josh, for grins and giggles, can you retrieve the numbers back to 2001?

Thanks!

Below is a link to a bunch of Josh's graphs. Depicts nicely what is going on since several years ago.

Real Estate Blog - Destin Market Statistics and Charts

 

[Smiling JOe]

You can also keep track of comps yourself (with a one month or so lag time) on the walton county appraisers site.

Walton County Parcel Maps

Also tracke the lot sheets:

DESTIN FL REAL ESTATE: Condominium Hotlist

Currently looks like there's one in there for around $180K. (..and dropping fast! )

Be careful when using solely the Walton County Parcel Maps for sales prices. As I've noted in the past, there is a FL state law which requires the doc stamps on foreclosed properties to be at the amount of the default or the value at the time of the foreclosure, whichever is highest. Walton County PA's site doesn't necessarily show the true purchase price. Their purchase price shown is the actually not the purchase price, but the supposed price, based on the doc stamps paid, so in the cases where they actually follow the law, that calculation of "purchase price" may be extremely high, as it should be calculated based on the amount of the default.

eg- Buyer X purchases a home in 2005 for $900,000. Buyer X later defaults on payments to lender in 2009, and the lender forecloses, taking back the property. Buyer X defaulted on $800,000 note. Current value of home is now $485,000. Doc stamps paid by the bank are to be based on the $800,000 (because of that State Law), and the Property Appraiser's site should (though often doesn't) show the "sold amount" as $800,000 because that number is an estimated value based on the amount of Doc Stamps paid.

Hope that isn't confusing. Just be aware that if the County is getting those Doc Stamps correct, we should see more and more prices in the Walton County PA's site, which look way out of whack. Currently, based on the law, I think they are missing the collections of many Doc Stamps from lenders.

 

[melscuba]

You can also keep track of comps yourself (with a one month or so lag time) on the walton county appraisers site.

Walton County Parcel Maps

Also tracke the lot sheets:

DESTIN FL REAL ESTATE: Condominium Hotlist

Currently looks like there's one in there for around $180K. (..and dropping fast! )

From what I can tell there are currently 6 lots in Phase II for under $200,000 list. It is my hope that the other sellers, who really want to sell, are watching this trend and adjust accordingly. I'm very anxious to see what really happens.

 

[fisher]

I'm new to this so I apologize if I've done something wrong! I have a question regarding lot values. My husband and I have been watching the real estate market on 30-A since 2005. We love the area and are looking to make a long term investment there... more specifically in Watercolor. We are currently looking at lots in Phase II... WOW what a range of pricing! The prices are all over the place. In reading this thread I noticed a discussion on this very topic in a different development. How do I know what to offer the seller? Yes, all the lots we are considering are in either short sale or foreclosure. That being said the price spread is still $135,000. The lots are similar enough in size and two of them are right across the street from one another. Can we (being you guys and myself) begin a discussion? I do have an experienced realtor I'm working with, but as with any major decision, I would prefer to hear from more than one professional. Thanks for your help.

A couple of questions/suggestions--

Are you desperate to buy now? If not, you might want to wait until the summer selling season is over. You will more than likely get a better buy next fall or winter. I've watched prices drop for several years now and fall/winter seems to be the time prices start dipping after the sellers once again missed the summer selling season. Also, waiting until after hurricane season is a good idea.

Why Phase II? Phase III seems much more appealing. The pool in Phase III is less crowded, no through streets, better access to the beach by crossing the bridge into Phase I, better lake access, etc.



Given the current market conditions including the HUGE amount of inventory on the market, I wouldn't pay more than $100k to $120k for an average sized lot in Ph II or Ph III. That would put you in the range of 2000 level pricing. Prices are already headed toward 2000-2001 levels may go lower still.

In 2000, some lots in Ph I were selling for under $200k meaning Ph II and III would likely have been in the low $100's had they been selling those lots in 2000. Many of the lots originally sold in PH II in 2002 were sold at $150k to $180k.

Prices in some places have already fallen below 2000 prices. It appears WC prices are headed there too.

A recent lot sale (feb 2009) listed on the Walton Cty website in Ph IV was at $48k --it appears to be a foreclosure and there may be something weird with the sale, but that is how it is listed on the county website. A lot in PH II sold in Feb for $225k or 12% below the original 2003 purchase price of $261k and a lot in PH III sold for $250k. However, there are now numerous listings for under $200k-AND they are not selling. That should tell you something about future price trends.

Remember, it never hurts to put a lowball offer on the table. The worst that can happen is a NO Thanks.



Good luck.

 

[melscuba]

A couple of questions/suggestions--

Are you desperate to buy now? If not, you might want to wait until the summer selling season is over. You will more than likely get a better buy next fall or winter. I've watched prices drop for several years now and fall/winter seems to be the time prices start dipping after the sellers once again missed the summer selling season. Also, waiting until after hurricane season is a good idea.

Why Phase II? Phase III seems much more appealing. The pool in Phase III is less crowded, no through streets, better access to the beach by crossing the bridge into Phase I, better lake access, etc.



Given the current market conditions including the HUGE amount of inventory on the market, I wouldn't pay more than $100k to $120k for an average sized lot in Ph II or Ph III. That would put you in the range of 2000 level pricing. Prices are already headed toward 2000-2001 levels may go lower still.

In 2000, some lots in Ph I were selling for under $200k meaning Ph II and III would likely have been in the low $100's had they been selling those lots in 2000. Many of the lots originally sold in PH II in 2002 were sold at $150k to $180k.

Prices in some places have already fallen below 2000 prices. It appears WC prices are headed there too.

A recent lot sale (feb 2009) listed on the Walton Cty website in Ph IV was at $48k --it appears to be a foreclosure and there may be something weird with the sale, but that is how it is listed on the county website. A lot in PH II sold in Feb for $225k or 12% below the original 2003 purchase price of $261k and a lot in PH III sold for $250k. However, there are now numerous listings for under $200k-AND they are not selling. That should tell you something about future price trends.

Remember, it never hurts to put a lowball offer on the table. The worst that can happen is a NO Thanks.



Good luck.

We see the appeal of Phase III too. Phase II is a personal choice because of the Camp. We have young children and the Camp just has tons to offer them. I think it would appeal to other families as well (for rental purposes). We do love the easy bridge access from Phase III, so it's really just a personal choice. We are in no hurry, as we've been watching the 30-A market since 2005. I'm happy to wait. In the mean time we will, hopefully, see the prices stabilize and get geared up to buy! Glad to have found a place get opinions and stay connected to what is happening along 30-A... one of the most beautiful places I've ever seen! Thks!

 

[30ashopper]

Be careful when using solely the Walton County Parcel Maps for sales prices. As I've noted in the past, there is a FL state law which requires the doc stamps on foreclosed properties to be at the amount of the default or the value at the time of the foreclosure, whichever is highest. Walton County PA's site doesn't necessarily show the true purchase price. Their purchase price shown is the actually not the purchase price, but the supposed price, based on the doc stamps paid, so in the cases where they actually follow the law, that calculation of "purchase price" may be extremely high, as it should be calculated based on the amount of the default.

eg- Buyer X purchases a home in 2005 for $900,000. Buyer X later defaults on payments to lender in 2009, and the lender forecloses, taking back the property. Buyer X defaulted on $800,000 note. Current value of home is now $485,000. Doc stamps paid by the bank are to be based on the $800,000 (because of that State Law), and the Property Appraiser's site should (though often doesn't) show the "sold amount" as $800,000 because that number is an estimated value based on the amount of Doc Stamps paid.

Hope that isn't confusing. Just be aware that if the County is getting those Doc Stamps correct, we should see more and more prices in the Walton County PA's site, which look way out of whack. Currently, based on the law, I think they are missing the collections of many Doc Stamps from lenders.

AFAICT, foreclosed sale prices of this kind are marked as unqualified. (A 'U' vs. a 'Q' for Qual type)

 

[Busta Hustle]

AFAICT, foreclosed sale prices of this kind are marked as unqualified. (A 'U' vs. a 'Q' for Qual type)

This is true that the foreclosure on the mortgage is not considered qualified or "arms lenght". Neither or short sales.
But when the bank/lender now owns the property /REO, and the`sale of the` reo resulted from listing with a`real estate broker in a`Multiple Listing Service at a listing price based on typical marketing times and conditions, the sale is considered arms lenght and qualified.