Climate change is much likelier to pass than immigration reform. For one thing, it's already passed the House. For another, Graham, Kerry, Lieberman and others have spent an extraordinary amount of time sounding out key legislators, business groups, advocacy organizations and pretty much everyone else with a loud voice or an important vote. This is going to be a hard bill to move, but they've spent months doing the hard work necessary to have a chance. (Whether the bill is a good bill worth moving is, I should say, another story entirely.)
The same cannot be said for immigration reform. The House has not considered legislation on the subject. There have not been endless stakeholder meetings or sessions with key legislators. Indeed, when I talk to people about the two issues, the difference is this: When people talk about climate change, they talk about passing a bill. When they talk about immigration reform, they talk about the electoral usefulness of bringing up the issue. In fact, I don't know of anyone who is not paid to be optimistic about an immigration bill passing who thinks that an immigration bill will pass.
And this is why Graham is angry: He's taken a huge risk to be the lone Republican on climate change. Patrick Creighton, a flack for the conservative Institute for Energy Research, says that Graham's involvement makes him "part of one of the most economically devastating pieces of legislation this country has ever seen, no more, no less." And now it looks like Democrats are going to leave that hanging there, moving to an immigration reform effort that won't pass but might split the Republican Party -- creating massive problems for pro-reform Republicans like, well, Lindsey Graham.
