What all encompassing factors convince you that the economy is and will continue to improve?
If you've posted all this before and I missed it, I apologize.
The American Dream
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What all encompassing factors convince you that the economy is and will continue to improve?
If you've posted all this before and I missed it, I apologize.
Economic factors indicate mediocre growth this year. Check out the link in http://www.sowal.com/bb/politics-current-events/53056-ten-economic-predictions-2011-a.html. There's a lot of data there that indicates this. Granted we'll be stuck with crummy growth for a while, but growth none the less. I think there'll be a constant stream of moderately positive economic news across the year, and it's not an election year so, I think this is the year everybody finally starts to relax a little. That won't be good for gold, IMHO. That of course is just my opinion, I'm not an expert, and I've been wrong before.
It is quite the conundrum. IF you had bought gold 2 years ago around $600-$700 you would be selling today you say. That means you think the fundamental reasons you would have bought at $700 have now changed. But, you don't have gold. I'm sure it looks expensive. Probably as expensive as $700/gold looked when it was $700 coming from $300. Now, $700 looks like a "good buy" as you said from today's point of view. Sure $700 looks good KNOWING it's over $1300, but when it was $700 it looked expensive. That is normalcy bias.
You don't have any so you think it will come down. I have some and think it may come down, but not as far as some believe. This is a global crisis because of the dollars reserve status. The world is a bit bigger today than the USofA. If PM prices fall too far they will be bought quickly and the price will rise faster than you expect or can plan.
Central Banks around the world are trying to get out of the dollar and are buying gold. Follow the money.
Full disclosure: I haven't bought gold since $1000 or silver since $24.50 except for some Christmas presents bought at $28. The rapid rise in silver over the past 3 months has shocked me personally. A correction was needed. But PM bull runs are decades long. We are just starting phase II. Phase III is when it will run parabolic. I was begging for it to come down as it topped $31. And it has! I want it to come down because I want as much as I can get in the mid 20s. I seriously doubt it will drop below $25.
I have my fill for the time being so it is easy for me to relax. My money comes seasonally and I will buy at whatever price it is when I have FRNs to get rid of. I have enough cash to pay bills and living expensive. I do not store my effort in fiat currency.
The historic GSR (gold/silver ratio) is 16:1. Divide gold price by silver price. The GSR in the last 20 years has been about 60:1 and a few years ago was as high as 100:1. I started buying silver at 62:1 and today it is 46:1. If I were to trade my silver in for gold today I would have arbitraged and gained 16 ozs. silver for every oz of gold had I bought gold instead. I plan to slowly trade my silver for gold around 40:1 with a final target of 20:1. I don't think this is exactly the final GSR, it's just my personal target. Gold is the end goal for me. Playing the GSR is just a way for me to increase my stack while never being without PMs of some sort.
That being said, if I didn't have any today I would at least start a position. We'll never pick a bottom or top.
It sounds like you view the gold price as rising and falling instead of the dollar rising and falling. At this point it's just a mental exercise if you don't have gold. It is a much different experience if you actually hold it in your hands. Then you start to ask yourself, "do I want to buy dollars with my gold?" No.
I say all this with the utmost respect for you guys. You all are some smart cookies and I appreciate this space for me to have my say as well. Always welcome different perspectives. Thank you for reading!
The United States Stuck in 2011 Catch 22
The United States Stuck in 2011 Catch 22 - International Business Times
One last reading recommendation for now...
Amazon.com: The Creature from Jekyll Island : A Second Look at the Federal Reserve (9780912986210): G. Edward Griffin: Books@@AMEPARAM@@http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/516P995FZTL.@@AMEPARAM@@516P995FZTL
And a review by Stephen McCarthy. Just a regular reviewer but his description is spot on and wanted to give him due credit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"What is The Creature From Jekyll Island? Well, first of all, it's uglier than The Creature from the Black Lagoon; it's more densely wrapped in deception than the Mummy is in cloth; it sucks the lifeblood of America more ravenously than Dracula does his victims; it reeks worse than the Werewolf; and it's stronger and more dangerous than Doctor Frankenstein's miscreation!
The Creature from Jekyll Island is the PRIVATE Federal Reserve that holds America and Her People hostage with an astoundingly perverse and "criminal" economic system that is an evil beyond your worst monster-infested nightmare. But the Creature comes in a guise to mislead the people, like a Wolfman in sheep's clothing.
Why is the system "criminal"? Because the U.S. Constitution proclaims itself to be the "supreme Law of the Land" (see Article VI), and Article I, Section VIII of the Constitution states that "The Congress shall (Constitutionally speaking, "shall" has been legally defined as "must")...coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures." Why Congress? Because it is answerable to the People it represents! Remember, our Constitutional Republic was meant to be representational government! We're a long way from that now! The Federal Reserve is NOT Congress; it is unelected, meaning nonrepresentational, and being therefore unconstitutional, it is illegal, hence "criminal."
I first read G. Edwrd Griffin's magnificent study, 'The Creature From Jekyll Island' eight years ago. I had read plenty of political books prior to this one, and countless since, but Mr. Griffin's tour de force has yet to be equaled when it comes to educating the reader in wide-ranging topics that coalesce most of the geopolitical mysteries of our time into the diabolical scheme known as the Federal Reserve System.
Don't make the mistake of letting the sophisticated subject matter drive you away as forcefully as the intriguing title beckons you. Despite the complexity of the topic, G. Edward Griffin masterfully organizes the material and lays it out, not only in a very readable manner, but he actually fashions a carefully researched, extensively footnoted nonfiction tome into a spellbinding journey that reads nearly like a page-turning mystery novel.
In the process of explaining and demystifying the history, the stated goals of the Federal Reserve, and the real agenda behind it, Mr. Griffin necessarily enlightens the reader about myriad conspirators who occupy positions in a variety of social engineering organizations. Without this understanding, one could not possibly grasp the full scope of the problem, nor fathom how such a demonstrably evil entity could have remained cloaked and in power since 1913. (Indeed the thirteenth year of the Twentieth Century represented an unlucky number for America and eventually the world.)
You will find some reviewers here complaining that Mr. Griffin has unfortunately polluted his 600+ page study with John Birch Society style conspiracy theories. What you WON'T find is where any of those same reviewers have proven any errors in fact committed by Mr. Griffin. They challenge the idea of a conspiracy, but not any of the abundant and overt evidence that clearly points to it. I myself don't like little yapping dogs, but I'm not prepared to say that they don't exist simply because I'd prefer not to even think about them. And I can hear those yapping quadrupeds as clearly as I can see the indisputable evidence of underhanded collusion in high and influential places when it comes to this country's monetary system.
"You are a den of vipers!" President Andrew Jackson thundered at a delegation of supporters of the central Bank of the United States in 1834. "I intend to rout you out, and by the Eternal God I will rout you out!" Jackson succeeded in ridding this country of the inherent perniciousness that a central bank levels on a nation. But President Jackson's hard-earned victory for his countrymen was sadly overturned in 1913, when a corrupt privately owned central bank was again foisted on the sleeping people of this once free nation in the form of The Federal Reserve cartel. As Griffin states on page 573, "The Federal Reserve is the world's largest and most successful scam."
I will tell you plainly that regardless of what you think you know about the political spectrum, Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, civil rights and corporate greed, socialism and capitalism -- regardless of how well informed you may think you are by reading mainstream news magazines and newspapers, listening to NPR and talk radio programs and watching political debates on nightly news TV shows -- until you have read and digested G. Edward Griffin's, 'THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND', you will never really understand contemporary American and global politics. But afterwards, the political puzzle will come together before your eyes, and never again will you follow the red herring into the brainwashing house of mirrors which is our current political milieu.
If you're inclined to read only one political book, be sure it's this one, as it will make sense of your world like nothing else. 'THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND' belongs in the personal library of every American who truly cares about his or her country (regardless of political party affiliation); by rousing the people of this nation from the ignorance of deep sleep, it has the potential to be the silver bullet or the stake through the heart of America's worst monster! Read it now or the Wolfman's gonna getcha! "
Amazon.com: The Creature from Jekyll Island : A Second Look at the Federal Reserve (9780912986210): G. Edward Griffin: Books@@AMEPARAM@@http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/516P995FZTL.@@AMEPARAM@@516P995FZTL
And a review by Stephen McCarthy. Just a regular reviewer but his description is spot on and wanted to give him due credit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"What is The Creature From Jekyll Island? Well, first of all, it's uglier than The Creature from the Black Lagoon; it's more densely wrapped in deception than the Mummy is in cloth; it sucks the lifeblood of America more ravenously than Dracula does his victims; it reeks worse than the Werewolf; and it's stronger and more dangerous than Doctor Frankenstein's miscreation!
The Creature from Jekyll Island is the PRIVATE Federal Reserve that holds America and Her People hostage with an astoundingly perverse and "criminal" economic system that is an evil beyond your worst monster-infested nightmare. But the Creature comes in a guise to mislead the people, like a Wolfman in sheep's clothing.
Why is the system "criminal"? Because the U.S. Constitution proclaims itself to be the "supreme Law of the Land" (see Article VI), and Article I, Section VIII of the Constitution states that "The Congress shall (Constitutionally speaking, "shall" has been legally defined as "must")...coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures." Why Congress? Because it is answerable to the People it represents! Remember, our Constitutional Republic was meant to be representational government! We're a long way from that now! The Federal Reserve is NOT Congress; it is unelected, meaning nonrepresentational, and being therefore unconstitutional, it is illegal, hence "criminal."
I first read G. Edwrd Griffin's magnificent study, 'The Creature From Jekyll Island' eight years ago. I had read plenty of political books prior to this one, and countless since, but Mr. Griffin's tour de force has yet to be equaled when it comes to educating the reader in wide-ranging topics that coalesce most of the geopolitical mysteries of our time into the diabolical scheme known as the Federal Reserve System.
Don't make the mistake of letting the sophisticated subject matter drive you away as forcefully as the intriguing title beckons you. Despite the complexity of the topic, G. Edward Griffin masterfully organizes the material and lays it out, not only in a very readable manner, but he actually fashions a carefully researched, extensively footnoted nonfiction tome into a spellbinding journey that reads nearly like a page-turning mystery novel.
In the process of explaining and demystifying the history, the stated goals of the Federal Reserve, and the real agenda behind it, Mr. Griffin necessarily enlightens the reader about myriad conspirators who occupy positions in a variety of social engineering organizations. Without this understanding, one could not possibly grasp the full scope of the problem, nor fathom how such a demonstrably evil entity could have remained cloaked and in power since 1913. (Indeed the thirteenth year of the Twentieth Century represented an unlucky number for America and eventually the world.)
You will find some reviewers here complaining that Mr. Griffin has unfortunately polluted his 600+ page study with John Birch Society style conspiracy theories. What you WON'T find is where any of those same reviewers have proven any errors in fact committed by Mr. Griffin. They challenge the idea of a conspiracy, but not any of the abundant and overt evidence that clearly points to it. I myself don't like little yapping dogs, but I'm not prepared to say that they don't exist simply because I'd prefer not to even think about them. And I can hear those yapping quadrupeds as clearly as I can see the indisputable evidence of underhanded collusion in high and influential places when it comes to this country's monetary system.
"You are a den of vipers!" President Andrew Jackson thundered at a delegation of supporters of the central Bank of the United States in 1834. "I intend to rout you out, and by the Eternal God I will rout you out!" Jackson succeeded in ridding this country of the inherent perniciousness that a central bank levels on a nation. But President Jackson's hard-earned victory for his countrymen was sadly overturned in 1913, when a corrupt privately owned central bank was again foisted on the sleeping people of this once free nation in the form of The Federal Reserve cartel. As Griffin states on page 573, "The Federal Reserve is the world's largest and most successful scam."
I will tell you plainly that regardless of what you think you know about the political spectrum, Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, civil rights and corporate greed, socialism and capitalism -- regardless of how well informed you may think you are by reading mainstream news magazines and newspapers, listening to NPR and talk radio programs and watching political debates on nightly news TV shows -- until you have read and digested G. Edward Griffin's, 'THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND', you will never really understand contemporary American and global politics. But afterwards, the political puzzle will come together before your eyes, and never again will you follow the red herring into the brainwashing house of mirrors which is our current political milieu.
If you're inclined to read only one political book, be sure it's this one, as it will make sense of your world like nothing else. 'THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND' belongs in the personal library of every American who truly cares about his or her country (regardless of political party affiliation); by rousing the people of this nation from the ignorance of deep sleep, it has the potential to be the silver bullet or the stake through the heart of America's worst monster! Read it now or the Wolfman's gonna getcha! "
Hmm, I just don't see it as being very predicable. Gold for example yielded a 75% return over the last couple years, while Apple yielded 200%+ return. I don't know how you predict what the value of gold will be a year from now, but I have a lot of information on how valuable Apple's stock will be. I guess it's just too risky for me. To each his own I guess.
I bought AAPL @ $85. Sold @ $135 I'm conservative like that.
If you hold AAPL now and have a realized 200% gain then buying gold after a mere 75% rise would be a great time to arb, no? I bet, literally, gold will double from here to $2700 before AAPL will see $672.
Let's revisit this in another 2 years ;-)
If you hold AAPL now and have a realized 200% gain then buying gold after a mere 75% rise would be a great time to arb, no? I bet, literally, gold will double from here to $2700 before AAPL will see $672.
Let's revisit this in another 2 years ;-)
I agree that the stock market is due for a dip.
I agree that Wall Street and private closed door concerns (that may be redundant) are manipulating the markets and finances of our country and just like the housing market, it's going to be an ankle grabber.
I agree it's about to hit the fan if we don't make some changes.
I don't agree that switching to a gold standard and abolishing the Fed solves those problems.
A currency based on faith in the US government, backed by debt, and that varies based on political whims and global events is variable whether it's paper or gold.
And all the same people will have all the same puppet strings and fingers in the pot unless we change THAT. And THAT is a much bigger issue IMO.
I agree that Wall Street and private closed door concerns (that may be redundant) are manipulating the markets and finances of our country and just like the housing market, it's going to be an ankle grabber.
I agree it's about to hit the fan if we don't make some changes.
I don't agree that switching to a gold standard and abolishing the Fed solves those problems.
A currency based on faith in the US government, backed by debt, and that varies based on political whims and global events is variable whether it's paper or gold.
And all the same people will have all the same puppet strings and fingers in the pot unless we change THAT. And THAT is a much bigger issue IMO.
Agree.
But the only way this will happen is if we abolish the Fed and allow, LOL, ourselves to print our own debt-free sovereign money. That's all it takes. Easier said than done. We don't NEED gold to back sovereign money as long as the money supply is maintained by Congress, who represents and is answerable to we the people. Like it says in the Constitution.
We will be forced into a gold backed dollar if we don't voluntarily abolish the Fed and issue our own money. Those are the choices.
If we stop printing now the we can't afford the interest alone. If we continue printing we will have to raise the debt ceiling. That is happening now. Default now or raise the debt ceiling. This will not end well.
How do we print debt free money? Either the debt still exists or we magically pay it all off.
And if we magically pay it all off, doesn't that strengthen our paper currency?
Inflation at less than 5% is part of my portfolio.
And if one is truly worried about the devaluation of the US dollar, take a trip outside the US. As Papa Scooterbug says of the dollar versus other currencies "the price was 1 milllion something, so I gave then $20 and told them to keep the change."
And if we magically pay it all off, doesn't that strengthen our paper currency?
Inflation at less than 5% is part of my portfolio.
And if one is truly worried about the devaluation of the US dollar, take a trip outside the US. As Papa Scooterbug says of the dollar versus other currencies "the price was 1 milllion something, so I gave then $20 and told them to keep the change."