Are we headed for an epic bear market?

[TooFarTampa]

I agree mikecatadjuster. Great -- as in epic, not funn -- thread.

Cool.

That's my kneejerk reaction to terrible, but believable, news.

On the upside, the only thing that can really fix this whole conundrum is the realizing and taking ownership of these losses.

I totally get this. I had strep throat a couple of weeks ago, and it hurt like freaking hell. I got the diagnosis and immediately said "Oh good." The doc was surprised. It's easier, I told him, once you know what you are dealing with. I had to take ownership. It still took longer than I thought it would to get better.

This is like an adult getting strep throat on a global scale. But worse.

Robert Shiller is saying the Dow could fall by half still. I doubt it, but it's clear that we were long overdue for a hard reset.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/3.html

 

[30ashopper]

This is all so thick with thought. Very interesting. Sad really how History repeats itself and we allow it to. It's a pyrimid scheme and some people who do the rape of the economy profit and seldom do they pay for there crime because the crime is not easily proven.

I believe it will result in terrific wars. I hope I am wrong. I have two children who I love with all of my heart. But countries with leaders who watch their citizenry becoming more disgruntled will have to do something. Desperation will result in aquisition by power. One little battle will draw in bigger guns and it will spill over into adjacent territories, bringing in more power and more players until the mightiest of leaders are drawn in. Oil and other energy resources will be at a premium. I think we've increased our reserves fairly substantially for this reason. I know Pelosi wanted Bush to tap into the reserve, but I think there were reasons we did not.

I don't want to bring politics into this, I'm just saying that the economy per se scares me less than what consequences many don't recognize. It does suck not having a high standard of living, but that will pale in comparison if the downward spiral results in crop shortages and lack of food availability worldwide and that kind of turmoil.

I have been thinking of buying real estate of late. I am still watching though. I have many thoughts and factors to weigh including those mentioned here. Great thread.

This brings to mind the current riots in greece. If anything like this happens, it'll start in western or more likely, eastern europe. The emerging markets in the eastern block countries are in a complete economic meltdown. Somebody might try to take advantage of the situation. (e.g. Russia)

re: crop shortages - I'd say the bigger risk is a total devaluation of any particular vulnerable currency in an emerging market.

 

[TooFarTampa]

This brings to mind the current riots in greece. If anything like this happens, it'll start in western or more likely, eastern europe. The emerging markets in the eastern block countries are in a complete economic meltdown. Somebody might try to take advantage of the situation. (e.g. Russia)

re: crop shortages - I'd say the bigger risk is a total devaluation of any particular vulnerable currency in an emerging market.

Or peak oil, but I guess that's not happening now since supply has mysteriously increased.

Still, my 89 year old next door neighbor is growing broccoli, and I am kinda jealous.

 

[TNJed]

This is all so thick with thought. Very interesting. Sad really how History repeats itself and we allow it to. It's a pyrimid scheme and some people who do the rape of the economy profit and seldom do they pay for there crime because the crime is not easily proven.

I believe it will result in terrific wars. I hope I am wrong. I have two children who I love with all of my heart. But countries with leaders who watch their citizenry becoming more disgruntled will have to do something. Desperation will result in aquisition by power. One little battle will draw in bigger guns and it will spill over into adjacent territories, bringing in more power and more players until the mightiest of leaders are drawn in. Oil and other energy resources will be at a premium. I think we've increased our reserves fairly substantially for this reason. I know Pelosi wanted Bush to tap into the reserve, but I think there were reasons we did not.

I don't want to bring politics into this, I'm just saying that the economy per se scares me less than what consequences many don't recognize. It does suck not having a high standard of living, but that will pale in comparison if the downward spiral results in crop shortages and lack of food availability worldwide and that kind of turmoil.

I have been thinking of buying real estate of late. I am still watching though. I have many thoughts and factors to weigh including those mentioned here. Great thread.

I stopped short of going there, but I'm there. I believe in self-sustainability for philosophical reasons but the current events are compressing my timeline. I'm almost scared to talk to people about it because the real possibilities are so unimaginable for most only seeing will be believing. Having trouble myself with some of it.

Boomers will be bottlenecking the healthcare industry(several levels of trouble there), $56 trillion debt, no production, no jobs, no consumers, still at war, dollar worthless, oil priceless, food everything.

soooo, good luck with all that. ;-)

 

[TNJed]

This brings to mind the current riots in greece. If anything like this happens, it'll start in western or more likely, eastern europe. The emerging markets in the eastern block countries are in a complete economic meltdown. Somebody might try to take advantage of the situation. (e.g. Russia)

re: crop shortages - I'd say the bigger risk is a total devaluation of any particular vulnerable currency in an emerging market.

Yes, I think riots are disgruntled citizens just looking for a spark. Add to that, the philosophy of the popular Sun Tzu who says to be patient and strike when your opponent is weakest.....ugh, I'm done for night.

Here's to hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. or somewhere in between.

 

[chanster]

i thought trader x was a day trader. i've been a professional day trader since 1991. i trade 2000-4000 times a day. i have an 8 monitor setup. i use professional level 2 software and can get off 10-20 orders ever 5 seconds.this mkt is a high vol traders dream. i've had several 6 fig days this year.i have friends who've made $30 mil this year day trading. i stick all my profits in cd's and have looked at buying something on 30a for while, my concern is the high speed connections on 30a. isn't the cable modem company mediacom? i ehard they suck. is dsl available on 30 a?

 

[scooterbug44]

Good gravy! Kvetch much?

Yes, there are tough times ahead, but we will be just fine in the long run. The stock market goes up and down - that's why we have names like bull and bear.

Even if it goes to a 2nd Great Depression we will manage. We may be eating Spam (made in the USA and stepping up production BTW) instead of Kobe beef, but we CAN feed ourselves.

 

[30ashopper]

i thought trader x was a day trader. i've been a professional day trader since 1991. i trade 2000-4000 times a day. i have an 8 monitor setup. i use professional level 2 software and can get off 10-20 orders ever 5 seconds.this mkt is a high vol traders dream. i've had several 6 fig days this year.i have friends who've made $30 mil this year day trading. i stick all my profits in cd's and have looked at buying something on 30a for while, my concern is the high speed connections on 30a. isn't the cable modem company mediacom? i ehard they suck. is dsl available on 30 a?

Well I am a 5000-8000 trade-a-day day trader. I can get off 30-40 pixie dust enhanced trades per second and have a plus five, sixteen monitor enchanted setup. I work with level five software plus a magic sorcerers vision stone. Top that, mortal.

 

[traderx]

i thought trader x was a day trader. i've been a professional day trader since 1991. i trade 2000-4000 times a day. i have an 8 monitor setup. i use professional level 2 software and can get off 10-20 orders ever 5 seconds.this mkt is a high vol traders dream. i've had several 6 fig days this year.i have friends who've made $30 mil this year day trading. i stick all my profits in cd's and have looked at buying something on 30a for while, my concern is the high speed connections on 30a. isn't the cable modem company mediacom? i ehard they suck. is dsl available on 30 a?

No, traderx is mentally too slow to daytrade at least these days. I trade a variety of setups just to spread the risk and night tremors around. I turned more short term since Nov. 2007 and stick to hourlys until I can figure something else out. Otherwise, I would trade hourlys, dailys and weeklys using different technical approaches.

But don't let the stock trading fool you, I am really in the cigar importing business. I bought all the '59 Fords in Cuba and filled those huge trunks with cigars. I have made $2 billion this year alone. Of course, I had to move offshore because the government was threatening to tax cigars. My office is nestled between a couple of former US yacht builders who fled the country after the same government imposed a yacht tax.

 

[chanster]

30a i sense a lot of sacrcasm. you obviously know little about the world of hard core day trading. go read the book electronic day traders from the 1990's and you'll understand how the hard core guys do it