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futurebeachbum

Beach Fanatic
Jul 11, 2005
1,100
375
69
Snellsburg, GA
www.myfloridacottage.com
Its too early to worry, yet, but ECMWF is showing something ugly headed our way in early Oct.

Check out this sequence which starts next Monday (Sept 27)

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010092100!!chart.gif


msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010092100!!chart.gif


msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010092100!!chart.gif


By Thursday (9/30) its looking ugly

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010092100!!chart.gif


And by Friday its headed due north!

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010092100!!chart.gif


This is 10 days out, It could go away or end up moving westward. Still, it bears watching.
 

Arkiehawg

Beach Fanatic
Jul 14, 2007
1,880
394
SoWal
Most of the models show this happening. At the present, the models are targeting a landfall around Tampa, which of course "never" happens because of the Tampa Dome.

Keep your eyes open, hurricane supplies ready and generators full.....could be an interesting October....
 

futurebeachbum

Beach Fanatic
Jul 11, 2005
1,100
375
69
Snellsburg, GA
www.myfloridacottage.com
Haven't we decided that site is whacked?

Yes, but significantly less so than any other weather site out there (Not that that is saying much.)

They nailed the non-event that was Bonnie when everyone else had them evacuating oil rigs off of the coast of La.
 

Arkiehawg

Beach Fanatic
Jul 14, 2007
1,880
394
SoWal
Haven't we decided that site is whacked?

http://www.sowal.com/bb/weather/50405-hurricane-fiona.html

Please stop scaring people. When it starts raining, let us know. :cool:

http://www.sowal.com/bb/weather/50147-ecmwf-big-storm-atlantic-later-month.html

This I do know - trying to predict the weather in Florida more than a couple of days out is a fool's game.


Well, I guess there are a lot of "fools" out there, because all of the expert meterologists including the NHC are all saying that the forecast for early October matches very well with the modeling.......

No one is "scaring people" Kurt, just providing information for those that desire. Perhaps if you or other are scared, just don't open the site....:roll:
 

happy2Bme

Beach Fanatic
Sep 24, 2007
879
1,243
Sowal
and here I sit....waiting.....waiting.....waiting....for the CAT 5 that will bring jobs for many. Bring it on! Yeah, I know, we'll lose our "stuff", but it'll be worth it....no more upside-down mortgages; no more "haves" and "have nots". Just remember to LEAVE....at least outside "the cone" (preferrably in the opposite direction of where the potential 'cane will head next). For those who wish to have a hurricane party instead, well, we just call that the "thinning of the herd".

Signed,

Hurricane Andrew Survivor
 

sisters4

Beach Lover
Jul 19, 2005
198
29
Selfish of me to read this and feel a little deflated about my trip there for 10 days the first part of October. Are y'all talking hurricane?
 

Kurt

Admin
Oct 15, 2004
2,339
5,039
SoWal
mooncreek.com
Well, I guess there are a lot of "fools" out there, because all of the expert meterologists including the NHC are all saying that the forecast for early October matches very well with the modeling.......

No one is "scaring people" Kurt, just providing information for those that desire. Perhaps if you or other are scared, just don't open the site....:roll:

Traditionally October is one of the best months of the year here for weather. Sure, there is always the threat of a hurricane but I don't think any weather forecaster has any better idea what will happen next month than they do what will happen next year, but just trying to get attention. Weather reporting has become a competition like scaremonger news outlets.

It's like starting a thread that says, "Bad traffic accidents in October." Or more to the point, "Bad weather in 2011." Might happen, might not.
 

Jdarg

SoWal Expert
Feb 15, 2005
18,039
1,984
I don't EVEN want to see anything about bad weather- Seaside yard Sale and Rosemary Beach Sidewalk Sale Oct 2 weekend, then Rosemary Beach Weekend of Giving and PATSY the Oct. 8-9 weekend. The rain better stay away!
 
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