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Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
beachlover2, if these properties were foreclosed upon, shouldn't you be assessing the lenders for those units which didn't pay, rather than the owners who did pay?
 

Miss Critter

Beach Fanatic
Mar 8, 2008
3,419
2,116
My perfect beach
This from today's Florida Trend:



Thursday's Top Stories

What You Need To Know About Florida Today

THURSDAY, JUNE 5, 2008

STATEWIDE:
Overdue Loans to Florida Banks Quadruple
If that were not enough, the state's lenders have unusually low cash reserves to protect against mortgage defaults. About 41% of Florida-chartered banks were unprofitable the first three months of this year. That's twice the number of banks that bled red ink last year. These not-so-encouraging trends emerged from reports released the past week by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Experts blame a chain reaction ignited by a two-year plunge in real estate values. It's not just problem home mortgages, but also developers defaulting on loans used to buy land and finance condominium towers. "We're still on the downside of the curve. We've not reached a bottom," Miami banking expert Ken Thomas said. [Source: St. Petersburg Times]
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,853
3,468
54
Right here!
I'm sure good realtors in the area will survive this without any major problems. There are always going to be unique situations so sales will take place. But to predict the overall direction of the market, you have to look at the aggregate of what's going on. From a buyers perspective, generally -

- most short sales are listed too high due to loans underwater
- short sales are not moving en mass off the market
- short sales are a good indicator of pre-foreclosure in the near future
- REO's are getting mixed pricing, REO listings from 3 months ago are overpriced, new REO's are coming in way under existing lists at more reasonable prices. (these have the potential of moving.)
- foreclosure activity in Walton County is rising
- a majority of homes due for foreclosure are not in the market yet
- inventory is very high (2 plus years?)
- there are a lot of white knuckle owners right now listing way above value, some are dropping price, but in small increments. (this correction will take a lot of time.)
- number of sales are still declining, both on single family homes and condos
- the spring season "happened" but was nothing compared to 2007

It's a very interesting market. :shock: :wave:

I'll go out on a limb and predict accelerated price declines overall, all across 30-A over the next year. I'll also say that IMHO, a majority of sales along the 30-A corridor that went through in March were overvalued.

I'm really interested in next spring. The number of foreclosed homes will be very large compared to what we see today, and given six months, all these small 5% price drops by individual owners should start to add up. Those owners who don't drop will go under, feeding more foreclosures into the market over the next year or so. So next spring is hard to predict, but it's success or failure will depend heavily on individual owners ability and willingness to discount prices. Considering we are in June and a majority of homes in nice communities are still way way way too high, I'm not optimistic for any sort of rebound in the near future.

For deal buyers like myself, rushing in to this doesn't make the best sense. You might find a deal here and there, but you'll probably still pay too much compared to what you might get it for in a year. Looking at the single family home sales for March, it seems a lot of buyers are seeing things the same way as I am.
 
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Beachlover2

Beach Fanatic
Jun 17, 2005
813
55
SoWal
beachlover2, if these properties were foreclosed upon, shouldn't you be assessing the lenders for those units which didn't pay, rather than the owners who did pay?


i mistyped there - they are in lis pendings - some foreclosures are taking over a year. Haven't paid us in forever but still not the final foreclosure
 

Lisa Ruby

Beach Fanatic
Jul 12, 2005
1,332
74
SoWal
www.rosemarybeachsales.com
I'm sure good realtors in the area will survive this without any major problems. There are always going to be unique situations so sales will take place. But to predict the overall direction of the market, you have to look at the aggregate of what's going on. From a buyers perspective, generally -

- most short sales are listed too high due to loans underwater
- short sales are not moving en mass off the market
- short sales are a good indicator of pre-foreclosure in the near future
- REO's are getting mixed pricing, REO listings from 3 months ago are overpriced, new REO's are coming in way under existing lists at more reasonable prices. (these have the potential of moving.)
- foreclosure activity in Walton County is rising
- a majority of homes due for foreclosure are not in the market yet
- inventory is very high (2 plus years?)
- there are a lot of white knuckle owners right now listing way above value, some are dropping price, but in small increments. (this correction will take a lot of time.)
- number of sales are still declining, both on single family homes and condos
- the spring season "happened" but was nothing compared to 2007

It's a very interesting market. :shock: :wave:

I'll go out on a limb and predict accelerated price declines overall, all across 30-A over the next year. I'll also say that IMHO, a majority of sales along the 30-A corridor that went through in March were overvalued.

I'm really interested in next spring. The number of foreclosed homes will be very large compared to what we see today, and given six months, all these small 5% price drops by individual owners should start to add up. Those owners who don't drop will go under, feeding more foreclosures into the market over the next year or so. So next spring is hard to predict, but it's success or failure will depend heavily on individual owners ability and willingness to discount prices. Considering we are in June and a majority of homes in nice communities are still way way way too high, I'm not optimistic for any sort of rebound in the near future.

For deal buyers like myself, rushing in to this doesn't make the best sense. You might find a deal here and there, but you'll probably still pay too much compared to what you might get it for in a year. Looking at the single family home sales for March, it seems a lot of buyers are seeing things the same way as I am.

Are you aware that there are only approximately 20 short sales currently listed in areas 17 and 18 which includes most of 30-A? IMO spring season hasn't just "happened" it is happening!!:D
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,853
3,468
54
Right here!
Are you aware that there are only approximately 20 short sales currently listed in areas 17 and 18 which includes most of 30-A? IMO spring season hasn't just "happened" it is happening!!:D

I'm surprised there are so few. I guess it's somewhat of a fruitless persuit for most as banks probably aren't interested in cutting the loans down as far as people need to go to sell.

On spring sales, I'm not sure I agree, at least for single family homes. Jan, Feb are historically low, March is the big spike, April and May decline off March, June has a small spike, and then a long decline into next year. Condos on the other hand tend to do well over the summer. Have to wait and see how it all turns out I guess. :wave:
 

Mango

SoWal Insider
Apr 7, 2006
9,712
1,360
New York/ Santa Rosa Beach
That is true - I am compiling a special assessment right now because of non-payment of many units in one complex where we have 10 units in foreclsoure - talk about screwing up a budget - and then this is just going to make it harder on the people that have been struggling to make their payments - most of these people live here - The 10 foreclosures were investors.......meanwhile they are collecting rent on some of these units and not paying the association fees or mortgage - but their renters are getting the benefits (that they are paying the guy in foreclosure for) It is just a vicious cycle right now.

All I have to say is if you are investor in this market, and you can not afford, or unwilling, to buy and hold, then do the other owners a favor. Step out of the playing field. I just received an e-mail from a investor who bought only 1 year ago and worked out a short sale, scheduled to close in a week. He hasn't paid his assessments for half that time, has a hefty assessment due as well, and wanted to negotiate with the Association for $600, the cost of filing a lien and interest. :blink: Did I say only one year ago? :blink:
 

fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
Are you aware that there are only approximately 20 short sales currently listed in areas 17 and 18 which includes most of 30-A? IMO spring season hasn't just "happened" it is happening!!:D

Just the tip of the iceberg as 30ashopper alluded to. The big shoe has yet to drop.
 
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