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SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,770
802
I think you are a little behind as well. There are already front page stories about sales down and inventories up. There are already stories of double digit declines (see my point about usatoday above). There are already stories of broken contracts and foreclosures (not to mention projects that are not going to get off the ground now). No perp walks yet, however.

The papers have been woefully slow at reporting and are lagging indicators of what's really happening out on the street. While it is true we are now just starting to see front page stories in the publications like the WSJ and NYT, they are usually only about the sagging sales and the soaring inventories--and most always contain a "feel good" quote from a hired gun at the NAR stating "Now is the best time to buy....it's a buyer's market!" (Which has been said every month on cue for the past year). Other stories about the bust have been tucked away in the Personal Finance, Marketplace or Real Estate sections.

This thing has just only begun to unwind. Stories are starting to come to light about shoddy construction of houses and condos thrown up during the boom. Projects being cancelled, developers filing for bankruptcy, layoffs, fraud and collusion--still not front page news.

H&R Block just announced it will take a charge of $61.3 million to reflect an increase in the number of its subprime mortgage customers falling behind on their loan payments. If this doesn't make a headline in the WSJ's Saturday edition, we're still not at the starting point just yet.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,770
802
Compliments of Shelly's crystal ball...
That means you could have your grand kids also cash in on the cold RE market.:clap_1:

The grandkids will need the money to buy $29.95 Value Meals at McDonalds, pay $1500 per month cellphone bills and pay for their medicine and retirement (since Medicare is history and they haven't saved a dime in their 401K).
 

PTWizard

Beach Lover
Jan 17, 2005
80
0
Columbus, OH
And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

A couple of generations?! Really?! I guess my grandfather shouldn't have bought all that land on the coast of FL during the depression! And here I always thought he was a visionary!
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,770
802
A couple of generations?! Really?! I guess my grandfather shouldn't have bought all that land on the coast of FL during the depression! And here I always thought he was a visionary!

And if we go into another Depression and you scoop up all the Florida land you can buy for your grandchildren, they'll think you're a visionary too--unless of course they say, "Why the hell did grandpappy sink all his money into a place lined with concrete seawalls and oil globs all over the beach?"
 

PTWizard

Beach Lover
Jan 17, 2005
80
0
Columbus, OH
And if we go into another Depression and you scoop up all the Florida land you can buy for your grandchildren, they'll think you're a visionary too--unless of course they say, "Why the hell did grandpappy sink all his money into a place lined with concrete seawalls and oil globs all over the beach?"

Shelly,

Over the past year I have generally agree with your analysis of the real estate market and admit that you were correct in predicting the problems that have occurred. I just think it's unfortunate that you never seem to write a positive thought on this forum, and even worse, you can't seem to tolerate anyone else that does.

Barring absolute economic and/or environmental disaster on a scale never before seen by man, land purchased on the coast of FL now will be incredibly precious in 40 years (2 generations). I realize that there are those who truly believe that economic and/or environmental disasters are inevitable. For example, the communists thought democracy and capitalism would ultimately collaspe in disaster. Funny how that worked out, huh? I just happen to believe that humanity will find solutions to our problems and ultimately implement them in ways that work. I'm scared sometimes but I do believe in our desire to survive in a world that is better for ourselves and our children.

We always need bell ringers to sound the alarm, but frankly, your 2 generations statement came off sounding like the homeless man on the street yelling "Repent! the end is near!". Even if you're right, you sound crazy and are therefore ineffective in making your point. It's simply tiring to keep reading your predictably negative opinions. We all know you believe the opposite of ANYTHING positive posted on this forum. What I would like to read is your insight into how you think we can fix the problems we face now and in the future. Convince me you are more than just gloom and doom.
 
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nmosley

Beach Comber
May 9, 2006
48
0
Dear Shelley -
Ok, This is my first post ever - not even sure if I am doing it correctly, but I totally agree with Paradise Sea on this one. I have been reading these posts for months now and taking in all of the opinions. Shelley, though you may be correct now and again, your pessimism diminishes most of the value of your comments. I am not trying to belittle you, rather, I am just agreeing that if you have a point, and you seem to have many, they can be made without the sarcastic edge - just as readily. That would allow those of us who enjoy your insights to be able to appreciate them without the discounting applied because of the ongoing doom. Just some feedback...remember all feedback is good... Now I am going back in my shell to hide and watch! By the way, all of this Real estate stuff may be moot anyway if the bird flu or scalar weaponry warfare ever begins - not to mention the weather control underway at the HAARP center in Alaska (now that is real doom and gloom for you guys). Have an excellent weekend :roll:
 
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