Unfortunately it appears the real estate boom, called for by ecopal's linked article from a tallahasee real estate conference, missed the direction of their call.
Smiling Joe has posted the October real trends #'s for Sowal, and it really looks like to me the y-o-y trends are worse than they even look like on paper (and on paper they look bad) and November it can be taken as a given, will surely be even worse.
Why do I say they look even worse then the data bears out on paper??? Let's look at dollar value of sales year over year.. Oct. 2004 520M, vs. 347M for Oct. 2005. Residential lots sales - $226M in Oct. 2004, vs. 82M in 2005. Contrast these substantial declines, with the part anecdotal, part emperical fact that listings of lots and residential homes for sale in Oct. 2005 is much much more than was for sale in 2004 on a total dollar basis, and we have the makings of a downswing that has only started, not a boom starting. It will take months and months to bear itself out, as sellers of real estate historically do not aggressively reduce their asking prices, until it's much too late. Some don't have to sell at all, particularly in South Walton. Then there are another group that probably should sell, but hang on anyway, and weather the storm. Then, unfortunately, even in South Walton you have speculators and people who stretched, who have to sell if they bought in 2004-05, because they can't afford a prospectively large capital loss, can't afford to carry the dramtically higher insurance and tax rates, in the face of rents that have been VIRTUALLY stagnant for 6 years, compared to valuations. It is these marginal buyers, who will become the marginally aggressive sellers - and there is no way around it, even in South Walton where the beaches are beautiful. To be sure, some sellers never "have" to sell and this is true of This will be doubly problematic in an area like SOWAL, where much of the activity from 2000 to 2005 has been purchases by speculators, who don't have to live there: i.e. it's an investment.
It is clear when the bulls on SoWal real estate now use phrases like "longer term" and cite the wonderful qualities of SoWal that attracted them to the place in the first instance, that the writing is on the wall.
However, having said all that, although I expect real estate values to resume a normalized annual appreciation rate of 7-9 % per year, after the next 12-18 month downturn, which I would ballpark at roughly 15-25% depending on the kind of property and location.
For those looking to hedge their exposure to South Walton real estate, but don't want to compete with all of the listings that are growing dramatically, by owner, by broker, unofficially and otherwise, the only liquid mechanism available to do so at this time is public trading equity of St. Joe Company, JOE. The perfect time to start shorting JOE however was about 4 months ago in June or July, which was as one might expect 2-4 months after the cognisenti in South Walton had realized the real estate values had stopped rising. Yes folks real estate peaked in SouthWalton somewhere between Thanksgiving of 2004 and March of 2005. It didn't go down, but it didn't continue to rise. Dentists in Birmingham, and Proctoligists in Atlanta starting reading magazine articles this spring about a pending potential real estate bubble, and they were the marginal buyers/speculators. It took the cognisenti on Wall Street, who don't have their finger on the pulse of South Walton real estate as closely as you all do, several weeks, maybe 12 weeks, to figure this out and start selling their holdings down, but there is much more downside to go, should valuations plumet an additional 20% in the area, as I expect is a good possibility and not extreme at all, given the multiple 100% increase in valuations over the past few years...
If you're someone who truly has a 25 year time horizon and have a bunch of cash, get ready to be a buyer, but don't be silly and buy the first significant dip we're about to see born out by the data soon... hold your powder until you see significantly large scales of foreclosures, probably not for 18 months or more, when interest rates on Adjustable Mortgages are back to normalized levels of between 7.5-8.5% - and payments on those mortgages rise 60% as a result, putting the final squeeze on the unfortunate marginal segment of owners.
Replies
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directionally challenged
Get the popcorn out Joe. 
Tyler, There's no intent to attack anyone as you are doing. First point was that using list prices is not the indicia that value is based on. Do you disagree with that point?
The article that Shelly linked was interesting and certainly a consideration but it relates to the overall market in the US and one investor moving his holdings to casinos which are still real estate holdings. I never said that the market is booming in the US and wouldn't because frankly I don't know that much about every market in the US.
A quick search on the same magazine produced other articles related specifically to the Florida market and more specifically the Florida Panhandle.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/10/17/8358067/index.htm
All realtors are worried and sales have fallen dramatically. I know and am close friends with several reputable realtors who have seen their commissions plummet - decline by triple digits over the same time last year.
No Tyler, you don't know. Not all realtors are worried. Being reputable doesn't equate to success in today's world. Many reputable realtors believe that they can be sucessful using yesterday's approaches. The fact is that the internet has forever changed their profession beyond their ability to comprehend. The last couple of years when they were making triple digits, customers were basically flopping into their laps. Now they have to work harder. The average realtor's lack of technological acumen severely impacts their ability to be successful today. While 86% of realtors have websites, only 12% of them get 25% or more of their business from it. The average realtor is at the mercy of a bevy of webmasters, software distibutors, marketing services and even the search engines promising an effective internet presence and it's just not that easy. The cost of internet promotion will become cost prohibited for many realtors as the online competition gets stiffer and with the number of sales as low as they are, they are going to continue to have a very difficult time.
right now and at least several, several months and possible a few years to come, there's little money or return to be made here.
If you expect to make money in several months, that's why people are in trouble. If you read my post carefully, you will note that I sited the ability to be flexible and adapt to the environment as an important factor to success in investing. Regarding South Walton, I have maintained on many threads that many people can no longer afford 30A and despite many peoples' hope that it will become affordable again, I think those days are gone forever. When you say there's little money to be made "here", if you are speaking of the Beaches of South Walton, I would tend to agree with you. If you read my post in the manner in which it was intended, you will also note that I said that I'm looking towards affordable housing on longterm rentals - that's not 30A.
Today I was working with a client who purchased about 9 acres in Callaway slightly over a year ago for $495K which is surrounded by 5000 acres owned by JOE . There have been 11 sales in the last year along a 3-5 mile stretch that comp it out at about $1.1-$1.2 million. We're also looking into whether he'd be wiser to put in streets and parcel it out into the 15 units/acre allowed and sell them for $100K-200K each depending on the amenities he'd put in. That's $13 -27 million dollars less expenses on a $495K investment just about a year ago. Open minded and flexible people are making money in this market. They didn't get stars in their eyes about Watercolor or Alys beach. They make sound business decisions based on what they saw, not what they were told.
You can't spin the facts,
There are no spins here. Only people that have their minds made up. Maybe they own, maybe they don't even own here. You're assaulting me and telling me to forget what I see and trust someone that I don't even know, that apparently isn't making money (perhaps losing it), or possibly hasn't even invested in this market?
Tony Robbins, (a very positive person) and mentor to many successful people says that if you continue to do the same things you've been doing, expect to get the same results. And yes, Paula, isn't it great to feel good.
Tyler, There's no intent to attack anyone as you are doing. First point was that using list prices is not the indicia that value is based on. Do you disagree with that point?
The article that Shelly linked was interesting and certainly a consideration but it relates to the overall market in the US and one investor moving his holdings to casinos which are still real estate holdings. I never said that the market is booming in the US and wouldn't because frankly I don't know that much about every market in the US.
A quick search on the same magazine produced other articles related specifically to the Florida market and more specifically the Florida Panhandle.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/10/17/8358067/index.htm
All realtors are worried and sales have fallen dramatically. I know and am close friends with several reputable realtors who have seen their commissions plummet - decline by triple digits over the same time last year.
No Tyler, you don't know. Not all realtors are worried. Being reputable doesn't equate to success in today's world. Many reputable realtors believe that they can be sucessful using yesterday's approaches. The fact is that the internet has forever changed their profession beyond their ability to comprehend. The last couple of years when they were making triple digits, customers were basically flopping into their laps. Now they have to work harder. The average realtor's lack of technological acumen severely impacts their ability to be successful today. While 86% of realtors have websites, only 12% of them get 25% or more of their business from it. The average realtor is at the mercy of a bevy of webmasters, software distibutors, marketing services and even the search engines promising an effective internet presence and it's just not that easy. The cost of internet promotion will become cost prohibited for many realtors as the online competition gets stiffer and with the number of sales as low as they are, they are going to continue to have a very difficult time.
right now and at least several, several months and possible a few years to come, there's little money or return to be made here.
If you expect to make money in several months, that's why people are in trouble. If you read my post carefully, you will note that I sited the ability to be flexible and adapt to the environment as an important factor to success in investing. Regarding South Walton, I have maintained on many threads that many people can no longer afford 30A and despite many peoples' hope that it will become affordable again, I think those days are gone forever. When you say there's little money to be made "here", if you are speaking of the Beaches of South Walton, I would tend to agree with you. If you read my post in the manner in which it was intended, you will also note that I said that I'm looking towards affordable housing on longterm rentals - that's not 30A.
Today I was working with a client who purchased about 9 acres in Callaway slightly over a year ago for $495K which is surrounded by 5000 acres owned by JOE . There have been 11 sales in the last year along a 3-5 mile stretch that comp it out at about $1.1-$1.2 million. We're also looking into whether he'd be wiser to put in streets and parcel it out into the 15 units/acre allowed and sell them for $100K-200K each depending on the amenities he'd put in. That's $13 -27 million dollars less expenses on a $495K investment just about a year ago. Open minded and flexible people are making money in this market. They didn't get stars in their eyes about Watercolor or Alys beach. They make sound business decisions based on what they saw, not what they were told.
You can't spin the facts,
There are no spins here. Only people that have their minds made up. Maybe they own, maybe they don't even own here. You're assaulting me and telling me to forget what I see and trust someone that I don't even know, that apparently isn't making money (perhaps losing it), or possibly hasn't even invested in this market?
Tony Robbins, (a very positive person) and mentor to many successful people says that if you continue to do the same things you've been doing, expect to get the same results. And yes, Paula, isn't it great to feel good.
SoWal Expert
Never to early for some popcorn.
Beach Fanatic
Make it chocolate truffles and I'm in...
Beach Fanatic
Why the World's Best Real Estate Investor is Cashing Out
The problem is that there are too many prognosticators on this board!!
You can spin things any way you want, or buy casinos instead of residential real estate, or cry chicken all day long, but the fact is NONE of you really know what the market will be like tomorrow or next year. You can guess, but guessing requires you to consider so many variables that no human mind can crunch them all and make real sense.
Shelly is a prime example of this. Her ability to collect skewed variables that make sense to her, crunch them and spit out an opinion is flawed.
Show me a prediction model that uses ALL the market variables..positive and negative...the fact that the baby boomer crowd is just starting to retire en masse, geographic market price differential, the long history of real estate returns, and all of Shelly's negative variables, and those of Cork's and you will then begin to come close to some kind of prediction of what the real estate market will do in SoWal..just my humble opinion.
Market mechanics are what they are..a giant wave we are all riding. Its your skill that will keep you on top of that wave all the way in or if you don?t know what you are doing, its WIPE OUT time.
Me..my Florida investments are all paid for..carrying costs are a small gamble.
Beach Lover
Today the St. Louis Fed President, William Poole said there is no housing bubble and the market should remain strong in 2006.
Poole said it's nearly impossible to forecast a price bubble.
"Indeed, given that bubbles always burst - if there is no burst there was no bubble - clear advance evidence of a bubble can never exist," Pool said. "If the evidence was clear, then everyone would know about the bubble and forthcoming burst, but then the buying that created the bubble would never occur in the first place," Poole said.
"So if you have an academic interest in house prices, I recommend that you wait a few years. If you have a direct financial interest, I can't help much - you're on your own," he said.
Poole said he did expect "some slowing in the growth of average home price nationally."
But Poole dismissed fears of a nationwide housing bubble.
You can go to www.marketwatch.com for more
Poole said it's nearly impossible to forecast a price bubble.
"Indeed, given that bubbles always burst - if there is no burst there was no bubble - clear advance evidence of a bubble can never exist," Pool said. "If the evidence was clear, then everyone would know about the bubble and forthcoming burst, but then the buying that created the bubble would never occur in the first place," Poole said.
"So if you have an academic interest in house prices, I recommend that you wait a few years. If you have a direct financial interest, I can't help much - you're on your own," he said.
Poole said he did expect "some slowing in the growth of average home price nationally."
But Poole dismissed fears of a nationwide housing bubble.
You can go to www.marketwatch.com for more
Beach Lover
I have several homes here in South Walton. One was bought last summer in a neighborhood of 50 homes, at the end of the great run up in appreciation, so people say. Several months ago a home with the same floor plan sold for $100,000.00 more than I paid. Another home with a slightly smaller floor plan just went on the market for $200,000.00 more than I paid 8 months ago, (which represents about a 45% jump from what I paid), and I believe there was an offer made within several % of the asking price.
I realize this information is only anecdotal, but it is what is happening to some people besides me, such as all of my neighbors who are seeing their values continue to soar.
Personally, I feel bad for someone trying to buy here now. So many people love this area, but are probably confused and unsure about what is going to happen. When people look for real estate, even when there is a huge amount of inventory, they usually find only one or two properties they really, really want. When the emotions kick in and you're ready to make an offer, do you low ball it? That would be the temptation now I guess. Problem is you may be lowballing someone who isn't motivated to sell low. Then what do you do? Wait? How long?
To anyone wanting to buy because you love the area, good luck. Maybe waiting is the answer. Maybe not.
I realize this information is only anecdotal, but it is what is happening to some people besides me, such as all of my neighbors who are seeing their values continue to soar.
Personally, I feel bad for someone trying to buy here now. So many people love this area, but are probably confused and unsure about what is going to happen. When people look for real estate, even when there is a huge amount of inventory, they usually find only one or two properties they really, really want. When the emotions kick in and you're ready to make an offer, do you low ball it? That would be the temptation now I guess. Problem is you may be lowballing someone who isn't motivated to sell low. Then what do you do? Wait? How long?
To anyone wanting to buy because you love the area, good luck. Maybe waiting is the answer. Maybe not.
Beach Fanatic
real estate investing is more of a science than an art, when compared to stock market investing. it is easier to compare relative value in real estate as opposed to relative value in stocks, imo. with stocks so much of the equation is is tied to human emotion. i realize many of you will say the same about real estate but i think because of the issue of liquidity, it is much easier to be emotional about stocks than a hard asset like real estate which is illiquid. when one sees prices of stocks dancing around EVERY DAY, it is easier to get caught up in the emotions of the moment ( example is tech bubble of 2000 ) in real estate investing one needs patience, composure, and perspective. if one does there homework and keeps their wits about them, they will invariably find a home or a lot that makes economic sense. there is ALWAYS a motivated seller in the marketplace and a patch of ground that gets overlooked.
directionally challenged
Today the St. Louis Fed President, William Poole said there is no housing bubble and the market should remain strong in 2006.
Poole said it's nearly impossible to forecast a price bubble.
"Indeed, given that bubbles always burst - if there is no burst there was no bubble - clear advance evidence of a bubble can never exist," Pool said. "If the evidence was clear, then everyone would know about the bubble and forthcoming burst, but then the buying that created the bubble would never occur in the first place," Poole said.
"So if you have an academic interest in house prices, I recommend that you wait a few years. If you have a direct financial interest, I can't help much - you're on your own," he said.
Poole said he did expect "some slowing in the growth of average home price nationally."
But Poole dismissed fears of a nationwide housing bubble.
You can go to www.marketwatch.com for more
Thanks Thyme. While I'm inherently suspicious of anything that comes from government on some things (comes from my past life of being in it
) the argument makes good sense regarding the ability to predict a bubble. Rita (I think) posted a grim reaper smiley on another thread and I'm thinking about just posting that when we see all the negative conjecture about the market. Beach Lover
one question about interest rates (besides the fact that they can only go one of two ways, and they are still impossible to predict.)
What effect will they have on real estate ARMS and R/E prices if the FED stops pushing them up after the next meeting or two as Citigroup is now predicting and feels the FED may well start REDUCING rates in the fall? Could this cause buyers to blink?
What effect will they have on real estate ARMS and R/E prices if the FED stops pushing them up after the next meeting or two as Citigroup is now predicting and feels the FED may well start REDUCING rates in the fall? Could this cause buyers to blink?
SoWal Insider
one question about interest rates (besides the fact that they can only go one of two ways, and they are still impossible to predict.)
What effect will they have on real estate ARMS and R/E prices if the FED stops pushing them up after the next meeting or two as Citigroup is now predicting and feels the FED may well start REDUCING rates in the fall? Could this cause buyers to blink?
Due to events that just happened recently, it will be a bit more tricky for the Fed to stop raising rates at this point. You see, the EU and Japan just started raising their rates. If the Fed stops raising rates when the other countries are raising theirs, that will make the US Treasuries less attractive to investors who'll stop buying them, or worse...sell them off (driving the price of the bonds down and the yield up). The US will be hard-pressed to fund our country's need for greed. The US will be stuck with tons of debt to pay and nothing with which to pay it...so the US will have to make their Treasuries more attractive relative to the rest of the world...and just how do they do that?....why raise the rates of course.
OR...Congress can raise taxes
OR...America can stop living from paycheck to paycheck and get off the credit cards. :funn:
Believe me...if this economy has a meltdown, the very last thing the baby boomers with nest eggs and pension funds tied up in US Treasuries-out-the-wahzoo will be thinking about is buying an overpriced condo on the beach.
It will be interesting to see what the Fed pulls out of its bag of tricks this time. I think Ben is going to find that Al left him holding an empty bag. (Insert Grim Reaper Here: )
Beach ComberAuthor
- Bank of Japan's decision is going to force Fed's hand.
- JOE stock off nearly 40% from its highs.... Real Estate is not a liquid/efficient market, and takes longer to adjust that stocks.... but I believe it is dialed in now.
Back to January 2004 pricing in South Walton - that is where we are headed -It will look simply like what is known as a 'retracement' on a stock chart. Real Estate in South Walton is now worth 30-40% less than it was at the very peak. No more, no less. It will only take time to bear out.
St. Joe's company stock has taken about 7 months to fall 40%. Real estate will take twice as long, let's say 14 months. By next May, real estate may stop declining. 40% folks. give or take 5 %, and depending on how high interest rates go. Last nights decision by the Bank of Japan now gives us an incredibly good tip, that rates are going to be rising more than we thought just yesterday.
If you like South Walton long term, don't buy real estate at asking prices (because as the weekend auction showed, ask and offer are a long way apart)... buy St. Joe stock (JOE) which has already taken the appropriate hit discounting what has started to happen, and what the market things is going to happen (down) already.
If you love SoWal, and are worried about "waiting" to buy real estate, that you may miss out, just simply buy some JOE stock which has already taken the hit.
It is now time to cover the short play on JOE here in the mid 50's. Consider buying JOE now instead of real estate, as JOE is reflecting the bid prices (which were not accepted for the most part) at recent So Wal real estate auction, not the ask prices.
Man this game is simple.
- JOE stock off nearly 40% from its highs.... Real Estate is not a liquid/efficient market, and takes longer to adjust that stocks.... but I believe it is dialed in now.
Back to January 2004 pricing in South Walton - that is where we are headed -It will look simply like what is known as a 'retracement' on a stock chart. Real Estate in South Walton is now worth 30-40% less than it was at the very peak. No more, no less. It will only take time to bear out.
St. Joe's company stock has taken about 7 months to fall 40%. Real estate will take twice as long, let's say 14 months. By next May, real estate may stop declining. 40% folks. give or take 5 %, and depending on how high interest rates go. Last nights decision by the Bank of Japan now gives us an incredibly good tip, that rates are going to be rising more than we thought just yesterday.
If you like South Walton long term, don't buy real estate at asking prices (because as the weekend auction showed, ask and offer are a long way apart)... buy St. Joe stock (JOE) which has already taken the appropriate hit discounting what has started to happen, and what the market things is going to happen (down) already.
If you love SoWal, and are worried about "waiting" to buy real estate, that you may miss out, just simply buy some JOE stock which has already taken the hit.
It is now time to cover the short play on JOE here in the mid 50's. Consider buying JOE now instead of real estate, as JOE is reflecting the bid prices (which were not accepted for the most part) at recent So Wal real estate auction, not the ask prices.
Man this game is simple.
SoWal Expert
"Man this game is simple."
If that were true, we would all be retired, living at the beach, including you! ;-)
If that were true, we would all be retired, living at the beach, including you! ;-)
Beach Lover
If that were true, we would all be retired, living at the beach, including you!
Most of you on this board ARE living at the beach, so I guess he's right!
OK, maybe not retired, but you are one up on all us dreamers....
SoWal Expert
Most of you on this board ARE living at the beach, so I guess he's right!Correct, living at the beach is only half of it. Having enough money to retire is another another ballgame, which most of us are not in at the moment.
OK, maybe not retired, but you are one up on all us dreamers....
Perhaps GaltsGulch is the only one for whom this is "easy." As someone wrote yesterday or the day before, there is way too much info out there for a human to accurately comprehend and process regarding the real estate market. He who says it is easy, is one to take with a note of caution. ;-)
Beach ComberAuthor
I know its not easy.... just seems like it in hindsight. It's not. How do I know it has not been easy? Because 6-10 months ago, when there were two or three posters to these boards basically screaming "sell now", the vast and overwhelming majority of people thought that was the wrong call, and let them know it. So it is tough, not easy. "Real estate goes up", "Boomers are retiring", "West Palm is more expensive", "An airport approval is coming", "
Comment was tongue in cheek.... I didn't mean to rile anyone who has a vested interest in seeing a very soft landing, instead of the kind of correction that the stock of St. Joe's has experienced (DOWN 40%!!!!). I think stocks react quicker to market changes, than does real estate.
It's not easy. People have to make their own choices, and vote with their feet. Good luck to all.
One year ago, almost to the day, my family doctor was talking about buying pre-construction condo's. Doctor's are notoriously late to parties, according to lore. http://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/stories/1997/07/28/story7.html
Comment was tongue in cheek.... I didn't mean to rile anyone who has a vested interest in seeing a very soft landing, instead of the kind of correction that the stock of St. Joe's has experienced (DOWN 40%!!!!). I think stocks react quicker to market changes, than does real estate.
It's not easy. People have to make their own choices, and vote with their feet. Good luck to all.
One year ago, almost to the day, my family doctor was talking about buying pre-construction condo's. Doctor's are notoriously late to parties, according to lore. http://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/stories/1997/07/28/story7.html
margarita brocolia
..... Believe me...if this economy has a meltdown, the very last thing the baby boomers with nest eggs and pension funds tied up in US Treasuries-out-the-wahzoo will be thinking about is buying an overpriced condo on the beach. .........
Could you clarify where you stand on baby boomers and condo sales???
I'm not sure everyone knows yet. ;-)
Meow
Could you clarify where you stand on baby boomers and condo sales???
I'm not sure everyone knows yet. ;-)
Brokeback Record! Sorry...sometimes I just cannot resist!!!
Beach Fanatic
FYI, I bought JOE at $73 and am watching it decline (and didn't sell or put a stop order on it -- and I haven't lost any sleep over it either). Some of my stocks have gone up and some have gone down over the years because my crystal ball is as cloudy as everyone else's crystal ball (though we have some posters who are very sure of their predictions and their crystal ball so they must be really wealthy by now 
).
In my view, diversification is the name of the game so JOE (or the Florida market) is not making or breaking my retirement right now. I'm still on target to be watching sunsets every winter at the beach in about 7 years. And if it doesn't work out, I'll plan on working full-time a little longer (heck, I really like my job and I'm not sure I'd want to leave it early anyway).
). In my view, diversification is the name of the game so JOE (or the Florida market) is not making or breaking my retirement right now. I'm still on target to be watching sunsets every winter at the beach in about 7 years. And if it doesn't work out, I'll plan on working full-time a little longer (heck, I really like my job and I'm not sure I'd want to leave it early anyway).
SoWal Insider
Due to events that just happened recently, it will be a bit more tricky for the Fed to stop raising rates at this point. You see, the EU and Japan just started raising their rates.
The statement above was written while the Bank of Japan was still in meetings about rate hikes. This morning BOJ announced they are not going to raise their rates just yet...but they said they are scrapping their "easy money" policy. This fires a warning shot across the bow for the US economy and money borrowers everywhere.
30-Year Mortgage rates this afternoon hit a 2 1/2 year high, 15-year rates the highest since 2003, and investulator ARMS are up too. So financing a home purchase is essentially back to the point it was before the big boom--and there are more properties (lots, homes, condos, etc.) available on the market now and at prices up to 3x higher.
If you are thinking about getting into real estate (and expect to make double-digit returns on your investment) and are unaware of this "perfect storm" brewing in the economy--there's a serious possibility you are going to lose on your investment. Of course if losing money isn't an issue (and for many on this board it isn't)...then by all means, this is becoming a great time to shop around.
Beach Fanatic
Anyone who believes that in the next six months to two years that the fed will not ease and long rates will be significantly higher needs a refresher course....
SoWal Insider
Anyone who believes that in the next six months to two years that the fed will not ease and long rates will be significantly higher needs a refresher course....
6 months to 2 years? That's a sucker's bet. They'll probably raise, lower, and raise them again during that time!
How about a shorter-term outlook? Two more rate hikes have pretty much been forecasted...now there's chatter that they may go for three...what do you think about that?
With the ECB and BOJ joining the rate hike party, the rules of the game have changed since a month ago--interesting times are ahead.
Beach Fanatic
I spy some JOE investors. For those who are contemplating, just consider their inventory and the capital outlay associated with amenities and infrastructure. The latter includes the new airport, which isn't a freebie to JOE. You will also want to consider their buildout period. A good example is Seaside (although it is not a publicly traded company, of course), where they are scrambling to reduce their maintenance costs, homeowners association dues, and support the level of amenities that are available to almost anyone living in the area. I mean, I think Seaside is a great destination, especially for families. But we stopped looking there as soon as we realized that their marketing angle would translate into some very tall costs for owners to absorb as the project reached buildout. Oh, yes...there was also a road through it.
Beach Fanatic
Shelly, you may be the sucker...its taken since the middle '04 to raise-prior to that "Al" -as you so disrespectfully refer to him- had not lowered in 4 years...I'm not sure you know your economics...snowflake melting in the hand and all that...
Beach Fanatic
Of course if losing money isn't an issue (and for many on this board it isn't)...then by all means, this is becoming a great time to shop around.
I definitely agree that people who are just starting out or who don't have a financial cushion will make their decisions based on different criteria (and comfort with risk) than people who have been investing a while and have created more of a cushion. People should make wise choices based on a lot of different perspectives (positive and negative; short-term and long-term), as well as their current (and desired future) situation. They also have to be willing to change their plans if things don't turn out as planned (work more years before retiring, live a simpler life, etc.).
Much as we hope our planning (and risk-taking or lack of risk-taking) will pay off, anything could happen to change our best laid plans. And frankly, changes in real estate markets is just one of many unknowns in our lives and it's by far not the most important thing. A very wise woman once told me when I was just a teenager that if you (and the people you love) have good health then that's worth more than anything money could buy.
Beach Fanatic
paula, i love your down to earth reasoning. you are a calming person in a port of storm !!! to address the short term forecast of interest rates, 2 rate hikes are baked into the bond mkt and probably a third. watch the fed funds futures market. the new fed chairman is a very smart and saavy person. he is not about to destroy the entire economy by going crazy raising rates. japan's rates have been about zero for 5 years, so there starting to raise rates is by no means surprising. the biggest fallout from japan raising rates and continuing the same, is that investors were borrowing money in japan for nothing and investing the proceeds in u.s. treasuries(arbitrage). it will take many many rate hikes by the boj to alter that strategy. i am more concerned about the hurricane season being as devastating as sj's post foretells. but i will stick to my prediction that late this year the bottom is hit in sowal real estate. a derivation of an old wall street adage: sell in anticipation, buy on the news. by this fall all the bad news will have been acted upon !! speculators, adjustable rates holders, people that bought at the top and can't hang on, people effected by buildouts, will all be flushed. i also think st. joe will alter there ridiculous extension policy and buy those lots back from people that are past build out, for the ORIGINAL release price. they will then come up with a new scheme to market those lots WITH PLANS for a relative bargain, with the catch being the new buyers must start building within 60 days. real estate agents out there be prepared for blast email !!
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