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Paula

Beach Fanatic
Jan 25, 2005
3,747
442
Michigan but someday in SoWal as well
I'm interested in this question too, and would consider myself on the low end of price interest. That's why I think just as an example those Bungalows of Seagrove houses are of interest to me, if they get even a bit cheaper. I think they're for sale now for 195k or so, so figure you could probably get one for 185k. If things get worse this year, I'm thinking this fall a bank might take a check for 160k on one of those, and I hope to be the guy writing said check, as that's a price at which I won't worry about the properties value, but simply use it and rent it as much as possible and let the chips fall where they may on valuation.


I agree about the Bungalows. I'm not in the market for anything (already got my happy place on 30A, not at the Bungalows). But I like the Bungalows. Wish they had bigger porches (and I think they're 2 bedroom), but if I were getting one there, I'd get one that was near some of the greener areas of the Bungalows so I'd have a sense of green space around me. I'd ask what the homeowner dues are each month because those never go away (though they sure make it easier to maintain the place from from away). And I'd check to make sure the association is really invested in keeping the place nice. If I were looking for something in the relatively inexpensive price range, the Bungalows would be on my list.
 

Uncle Timmy

Beach Fanatic
Nov 15, 2004
1,013
32
Blue Mountain Beach
I think what we're going to see in 2010 is that prices head back up much quicker than the 30ashoppers are currently anticipating. Buyers won't have months and months to sop up still low priced desperation inventory. Due to the lightning quick flow of information, the twittering effect, boards like this, plugged in sellers, plugged in agents, and the fact that no one really wants to retire in Montgomery or Atlanta - my prediction is for a 20% across the board spike in 2010 from current realistic REO values today.

robertsondavies,

Almost a year has gone by since you originally posted -so I am curious as to what your current prediction would be.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
robertsondavies,

Almost a year has gone by since you originally posted -so I am curious as to what your current prediction would be.[/QUOT


Hi there!! Yeah, I have no significant change to my prediction. I stand by it generally with minor adjustments. I have a slightly higher degree of confidence in the chance for a positive 20% surge in 2010, I stil stand behind that prediction. Since last April (2009) , the stock market has surged 60% (the biggest surge higher in 80 years), and real estate in South Walton has probably gone nowhere yet, as it goes through a consolidation, shake out phase with the majority of transactions continuing to be non arms length (REO/Short/etc)

Right now as opposed to 6 months ago, there is a dearth of available bank owned property for sale, mortgage rates are ridiculously low, baby boomers 401K's have swelled as compared to April 09, and SoWal is as pretty as ever. No one wants to retire in Atlanta, or Montgomery - that has not changed either. There is a tidal wave of people wanting to retire on 30A, and negativity has probably gotten way out of hand among the natives on 30A, as there are too many reasons to focus on the negative.

What sayeth you ?
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,644
1,773
I think SWGB was referring to Uncle Timmy being back, since he has been MIA for a while. Welcome back, Uncle Timmy!

I hear people talk about inventory, and I continue to point out that much of that so-called inventory isn't really property which is for sale. So much is so over-priced, that we may as well put every property in existance on the market, because everything is for sale for the right price, isn't it?

When there are 100 homesites for sale in a subdivision, and four are priced at $50,000, and recent REO sales for similar lots is $45,000, and the remaining 96 of those homesites are priced at $175,000 +, "REAL inventory" is 4, not 100. If you look at the median price of pendings and solds, vs median price of actively listed and expired listings, you will see quite a difference in price. Actively listed and expired listings are pretty close, and they are typically about 20% higher than the median price of the pendings, which is fairly close to the median selling prices. If sellers become realistic with the amount buyers are willing to pay, we will see many sales. If not, I suspect many of those properties will go back to the banks and the banks will have to get realistic with their prices, enough to spark buyers. Either way, (and this is no prediction, just a EWAG) I think we will continue to see strong sales and price stabilization of lots.

As others mention, only time will tell. Today, one can buy a Gulf front lot for $850,000 which would have cost about $3 million in 2006. For the end-user buyer or long term investor, today's ready-to-sell properties look like a steal.
 
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