Great Depression II

D2.0

If So Wal dirt has not bottomed here in 2009, then it will be because we're headed for Great Depression II - in such case we're probably headed 50-70% lower roughly speaking.

IMHO there is maybe a 1/3 chance we're headed for such a depression. (i.e. we can't fool the people into believing things are better)

Since I think there is a better chance we're headed for a surge in global growth I'd start buying early, if you like to gamble only, as I do.

I think what we're going to see in 2010 is that prices head back up much quicker than the 30ashoppers are currently anticipating. Buyers won't have months and months to sop up still low priced desperation inventory. Due to the lightning quick flow of information, the twittering effect, boards like this, plugged in sellers, plugged in agents, and the fact that no one really wants to retire in Montgomery or Atlanta - my prediction is for a 20% across the board spike in 2010 from current realistic REO values today.

South Walton real estate peaked at least 12 if not 18 months earlier than the national peak. South Walton peaked around March/April of 2005. The rest of Florida peaked very shortly thereafter, but nationally speaking, real estate in California, and the Northeastern Seaboard peaked in late 2006.

Truman Show II will be an allegory to re-educate America to feel good again about real estate. A depressed Truman's house appreciates wildly from the depths, and Truman does a cash out refi and invests in the new Bailey Savings and Loan with the surplus, after setting aside a few dollars for his wife to get an augmentation.