Great Depression II

[Smiling JOe]

now that would be funny!

 

[robertsondavies]

I think SWGB was referring to Uncle Timmy being back, since he has been MIA for a while. Welcome back, Uncle Timmy!

I hear people talk about inventory, and I continue to point out that much of that so-called inventory isn't really property which is for sale. So much is so over-priced, that we may as well put every property in existance on the market, because everything is for sale for the right price, isn't it?

When there are 100 homesites for sale in a subdivision, and four are priced at $50,000, and recent REO sales for similar lots is $45,000, and the remaining 96 of those homesites are priced at $175,000 +, "REAL inventory" is 4, not 100. If you look at the median price of pendings and solds, vs median price of actively listed and expired listings, you will see quite a difference in price. Actively listed and expired listings are pretty close, and they are typically about 20% higher than the median price of the pendings, which is fairly close to the median selling prices. If sellers become realistic with the amount buyers are willing to pay, we will see many sales. If not, I suspect many of those properties will go back to the banks and the banks will have to get realistic with their prices, enough to spark buyers. Either way, (and this is no prediction, just a EWAG) I think we will continue to see strong sales and price stabilization of lots.

As others mention, only time will tell. Today, one can buy a Gulf front lot for $850,000 which would have cost about $3 million in 2006. For the end-user buyer or long term investor, today's ready-to-sell properties look like a steal.

anecdotaly, I know an astute investment manager, who normally has just invested in stocks/bonds in his personal portfolio, just bought a REO lot for investment purposes in South Walton last month, and his reasoning was one I agree with wholeheartedly, and was actually phrased in the form of an open question. He said "where else in the world" can I buy an attractive asset that's off 80% from its peak, in nominal terms, and adjusted for the decline of the US Dollar, is off closer to 90% in global value terms?" Time will tell... we'll see how the place looks in 15 years.

 

[Smiling JOe]

The investment side is indeed about having a place to park money. I think long-term, if you buy at the right price, South Walton will be a great place to park money. 15 years may not seem like a long time in some respects, but when you think about Seaside being founded only 28 years ago, there is much that can change in 15 years. I watched Destin grow from not having any restaurants back in 1985, to having almost every store imaginable today. We don't yet know what growth will be in South Walton. If you look at the long-term plans of the extension of Hwy 388 (I think) from the new airport to WaterSound, St Joe's plans for commercial development at hwy 98/WaterSound, and all of the other potential developments on hwy 98, you will see that there is much potential for growth in the future. SoWal is basically a baby, and PCB and Destin are only pre-teens.

 

[Uncle Timmy]

What sayeth you ?

Not sure I have a firm take on this market right now so just seeing what other's opinions are. It's hard to get a read -from an amateur's perspective like mine but I do agree that the local pessimism seems to have grown out of proportion to reality.

 

[scooterbug44]

I can't tell if people are being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic.

Think a lot of it has to do with one's personal situation and geographic location and how that affects your perception.

All I know is that I know a lot of people having a rough time right now - and that those ripples in the pond are continuing to spread.

 

[Uncle Timmy]

I think SWGB was referring to Uncle Timmy being back, since he has been MIA for a while. Welcome back, Uncle Timmy!

Why thank you, SJ - I have been MIA for a while. I've been trying to get a business launched in the middle of the Great Depression II, and that doesn't leave much time for Sowalling. Ha.

 

[30A Skunkape]

Why thank you, SJ - I have been MIA for a while. I've been trying to get a business launched in the middle of the Great Depression II, and that doesn't leave much time for Sowalling. Ha.

 

[Smiling JOe]

You should keep us posted on your latest business start up so that we can send you some business as it comes up.

 

[Matt J]

my bad.. i thought he was trying to say I was AAbsolute re-incarnated somehow.

While we may not disagree I would never go that low on the insult totem pole. ;-)