Hurricane Katrina - I

[Excalibur]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

WWW.WGTX.COM

This Really STINKS - THE LATEST FROM NHC

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.

GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS. :shock:



FORECASTER STEWART



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT

12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT

24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT

36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT

48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT

72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT :nono1:

96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

WGTX1280AM,
I tried tuning in to you this morning but mostly received static. Are there any areas that you know pick up better reception than others?

 

[JB]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

The Nogaps And Gfdn Models Have Made A
Large Jump To The West Over Louisiana...

While I am not taking much comfort in this, NOGAPS and GFDN have historically been the most accurate models. Right now, it looks as if there is no way the stom will hit east of us, so we need to pray it hits as far west of us as possible. South Louisiana would be the best scenario, as it is a largely unpopulated area.

 

[Beach Runner]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

Some people never took them down.

We didn't have a choice. We had renters coming in, and obviously they wouldn't want their views obstructed by plywood. We'd like to get permanent shutters, but with 73 windows/doors to cover, it's just too expensive.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

We didn't have a choice. We had renters coming in, and obviously they wouldn't want their views obstructed by plywood. We'd like to get permanent shutters, but with 73 windows/doors to cover, it's just too expensive.

SIMPLIFY

Hurricane Katrina taken Aug 26 2005

 

[Miss Kitty]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

73!!!! WOW...how long does it take to board them up? I am now counting the windows in my house here....that must be one heck of a house!!!

 

[Tenn.Guy]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

While I am not taking much comfort in this, NOGAPS and GFDN have historically been the most accurate models. Right now, it looks as if there is no way the stom will hit east of us, so we need to pray it hits as far west of us as possible. South Louisiana would be the best scenario, as it is a largely unpopulated area.

I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.

 

[Kurt]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

Wanting it to hit here or there is a pointless pursuit.

New Orleans will get a big one someday and it will be horrible.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.

Good Points. No one want it to hit anywhere, but we should hope for the least damage possible, even if it means taking one here in Walton Co.

 

[JB]

Re: Hurricane Katrina

I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.

Perhaps you need to read more closely before replying. I did not say I wanted it to hit New Orleans. You are correct in that a direct hit by a Cat 3 or 4 on New Orleans would be a disaster of biblical proportions. I have many friends there.

I said SOUTH Louisiana. There is no good place for a hurricane to hit. No matter where it does hit, there will be damage. I understand the wetlands issue there - perhaps better than you do. But the area IS largely unpopulated. That is an undisputible fact.

Sorry, but it is someone's else's turn to get one of these storms. Maybe it will continue due west into Mexico. Maybe it will peter out. Who knows?