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Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,017
1,131
69
lollygal said:
He needs to go back and veg out this time!:rotfl:


Like the kids say...."DO OVER!" I can only imagine... he likely spent the entire "vacation" going on drive-bys comparing and analyzing properties along 30-A! Skier...I really am interested to hear your answers to my ?'s in the earlier post here. I tried to move the post to the thread dedicated to your "outlook", but failed...that's okay, my ?'s are really more real estate oriented.
 

Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,017
1,131
69
SKIER...Please go back on this thread and read post # 27 and answer the questions when time permits. Thanks.
 

ktmeadows

Beach Fanatic
Jun 21, 2005
763
24
Sueshore said:
SKIER...Please go back on this thread and read post # 27 and answer the questions when time permits. Thanks.

I've been anxiously awaiting Skier's answers to your good questions as well!
 

Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,017
1,131
69
luvthebeach said:
I've been anxiously awaiting Skier's answers to your good questions as well!


Maybe someone else can answer them! I just like to have all the "facts" and Skier has a lot of those...so maybe if we hang in there he'll answer!
 

30AOnline.com

Beach Comber
Jul 30, 2005
11
0
1st....there isn't a bubble on 30A... I know some will disagree but time will tell and 30A is not unique in regards to the real estate increased values when compared to similar areas and look at the reasons why the increases are taking place....

It's good to look at the 30A area as a whole on your statistics.
All Residental for South Walton East and West
01/01/2004-7/30/2004
# Sold 631
Total Sales $447,427,794
Average List $756,621
Average Sold $732,929
% Sold is of List 96.87%

# Sold 516
01/01/2005-07/30/2005
Total Sales $551,576,290
Average List $1,068,946
Average Sale$1,028,435
% Sold is of List 96.21%

What this tells me is that:
1) The hurricane probably slowed sales some during the heaviest sales times
2) Probably average lists pushing over $1M slowed sales some.

But, overall, that's some pretty good #s. Although the number of units sold is down by a little over 100 units, the gross sales is up over $100,000,000. The average list is way up, the comparison of list to sold is holding pretty steady.

These numbers indicate that the overall average sales and lists are higher now than it was just prior to the start of summer. So, even the hurricane didn't drop that.

Gary Fischer
 

skier

Beach Lover
Mar 7, 2005
116
0
30-A,

What is the total inventory of units today--lots, condos, and homes versus last year at this time and what is the average list price on the same comp.? Also, how many homes sold in June and July compared to last year?

In my opinion, the theory of supply and demand does play even in the real estate arena. When supply gets out of whack with demand, prices tend to fall. We seem to be a bit out of whack in the supply/demand category for the time being.

That said, I do believe (contrary to what many of you think) that the area of 30-A is an ideal place for a second home. When supply and demand get back in sync and prices hit a point where folks believe the value is there, sales will pick up again. But, I think asking prices (which are based on a relatively few recent high dollar transactions) will need to come down much further to get things hopping again.
 

skier

Beach Lover
Mar 7, 2005
116
0
Re: Let's all encourage SKIER to lighten up!!!

Sueshore said:
BTW...Skier is not the only one that could use your good advice! I must have missed some info from Skier....where/what kind/how many properties do you own? How many of those properties are for sell and what is/are the MLS #'s? You seem to really have issues with WaterColor! I am curious why. Also, how much time do you spend on analysis of the 30-A real estate market? IMHO, Skier needs a vacation!

Sueshore,

I've been in the market for a couple of years and I only own one property. It is for sale.

I don't have issues with any of the big developments, however, I do follow them because the data is easy to get for WC, WS, Seaside and Rosemary. Its also easy to get the data for these masterplanned communities off the Walton County website. The big developments are actually quite nice. I'm not a fan of Alys, the white washed architecture is just not my style. But, Rosemary is really well done. Watercolor seems to be great for families with kids. Still not sure about Watersound because they really haven't gotten very far with the construction yet--other than the condos which are quite nice. Wish I had the money to buy a 4 bedroom at Compass Point. I still dig Grayton and Seagrove due to the lack of controlled architecture and a more established feeling.

Since putting my home on the market, I have spent several hours per week analyzing the data that I can get my hands on.
 

30AOnline.com

Beach Comber
Jul 30, 2005
11
0
Skier, you're absolutely on track in my opinion. Supply and demand deifnitely has an impact. The second/vacation home market in my opinion is not as volatile to temporary supply and demand changes. Most people don't come out and say I have to buy a vacation home today. Likewise, most owners don't say I have to sell today either. When they do, you can get a good deal. There just don't seem to be many distressed sales. I've been watching foreclosures in Walton county as well as the normal market here. Foreclosures very rarely happen in South Walton. The farther north you go the more you'll see. I haven't been religously watching the forclosures but from time to time look and see what's entering foreclosure. Most of the time they are properties I wouldn't really want to have to deal with.

All said, let me pull some statistics and lay them out in some kind of meaningful format and I'll post a little later today.
 

Cork On the Ocean

directionally challenged
To answer Skier's questions regarding the data. The data posted below is of properties that went pending during the time frame (not of all pending properties). While I agree that closed data is important, IMHO closed data doesn't accurately reflect "current" sales demand because properties may close today that went under contract 8 months ago which was a different environment. If it went under contract today, it tells me todays demand.

I'm working on some new data comparing June 04 to June 05, separating sold data for homes, condos and land in Destin, 30A and Panama City Beach. The trend remains the same: The number of sales are significantly lower. The only property type that actually had a slight increase in the number of units sold this year was 30A condos from 27 closed last June to 30 closed this June. As mentioned above, since this is "sold" data, some of these sales will reflect the closings of preconstruction condos that went under contract last year.

One thing that is clear is that the average sales price is significantly higher than last year in ALL areas. This is great for those of us who are holding or living in our properties. The property "flippers" will find that they may have to hold their investments a little longer than last year.

I also agree with the demand vs supply comments. While supply is high right now on 30A (approx 1140 lots listed), I believe that our growth restrictions and the quantity of preserve land will inevitably keep our supply low. Increased exposure of and in-migration to our area will increase the demand over time and 3 years from now, those of us who own and held our property will be very glad we did.

I would be very interested in forclosure data because I have several clients who MUST sell. They bought speculatively, they are over-extended because they got greedy and I have true concern for them. They made a bundle last year and thought they'd do the same this year. I think this is a big factor in why we're seeing so many price decreases. We simply had too many speculative buyers who had no intention of putting their properties on the rental market or holding them for any period and they can't comfortably afford them. I agree with Shelly, all of those freaking about the "bubble" are top heavy and perhaps got greedy.

When you compare our prices to many other comparable areas, I think we're still less expensive. Maybe some on the board could make comparisons for us. Are there still places in Florida where you can buy a new home 5 minutes to comparable beaches for 300K (such as those in north Santa Rosa)? Are there great bayfront lots so close to high end beaches, shopping, restaurants etc. for 600K? One of my realtors is from Palm Beach Gardens and she says prices here are much lower. I also have property in Tampa Bay which has not appreciated nearly as much as my property here but it's still more expensive.

I'm not afraid of a bubble because I'm not over-extended. From an investment standpoint, when people dump their properties, smart investors will pick them up - the old adage "buy low". How low they will go will be interesting. I don't think we're gonna see prices plummet. The bulk of owners on 30A are affluent and have the means to pay for what they've got, even if they don't want to, so I don't think we're gonna see many fire sales. I think most will just have to wait till they sell to buy that new Mercedes.

Right now, prices could drop 30% and we'd be at last year's prices. If 3 story homes ever get to $640K in Seacrest Beach again which is what I paid last June, I'm gonna beg borrow and steal to get another.
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
Unless FL foreclosure process is radically different, foreclosure data were rarely be telling on a recent market transition, since it takes significant time for a property to reach the foreclosure stage. Loan has to go into default, the rules complied with (which can add on years in some states), etc. Foreclosure is generally indicative of a years-long economic crisis in a region. The farm crisis, the commercial real estate bust in the early 1990s, or a regionally-specific crisis (factory closes, whatever).

In addition, a property has to be compeletely underwater, that is, for loan outstanding to be greater than equity for foreclosure to be a rational route. Not always the case in fact, with poor or uneducated borrowers. Even if so, deeds in lieu would be a common alternative to foreclosure, particularly in the 30A area, thus circumventing entirely the process.

Even if the property is underwater, a likely case for a complete speculator in this market, the property wouldn't get to foreclosure until a long series of events had occurred, assuming a well-informed borrower and lender, subject of course to FL's specificities.

Must hop a plane for Budapest. No further explanations to follow.
 
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