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It's easy to make your argument work when you assume, make-up, and basically pull numbers out of your arse. Is a short on JOE a good idea right now. Definitely with the housing market continuing to drop. However if it is a long term buy and hold why sell now?

You don't lose money in Stock unless you sell them when they are down or the company goes bankrupt.

I remember somebody on Sowal breaking out JOE's landholdings int the same format as the Peter Rummell link I attached. I just can't remember who said it. In retrospect it seems spot on.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
You don't lose money in Stock unless you sell them when they are down or the company goes bankrupt.

You can "lose" money if it is "dead" money sitting in a non-dividend paying stock for years and years and years while granny's cash will make 0.25% in her checking account.

JOE stock is trading at -862 times earnings!! What a dog!!

Why would someone want to pay $25 for a share of JOE when they can take that same $25 and buy a share of, say Microsoft, and a Starbuck's Frappucino? Even if Microsoft goes down, they'll collect a 2.5% dividend each year. :dunno:
 
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YoungFT

Beach Lover
Aug 1, 2006
66
22
JOE stock is not about buying earnings or dividends - that should be obvious because they have neither.

You need to believe that management can add value to the 685K acres they own (I may be off a few acres). They add value by increasing the value of the acres over many years. Personally, I have a high level of confidence that JOE creates something unique in an area where they are the largest land owner giving them a sustainable competitive advantage. There are very few companies that can say they have as strong a position in their local market as JOE does in the future development of what I believe is some of the most beautiful land in the US.

You can run and crunch the numbers all you want. Here's one way you may want to think about it as an investment. JOE issues 92.2 million shares of stock priced at around $25 per share giving it a market value of $2.3B. They own 685K acres of Florida land, some of which is Grade A, beachfront, some is Grade B, retail / commercial and some if Grade C, mostly rural.

At a share price of $25 you get to buy a piece of JOE at an average price per acre of $3,365 per acre. ($2.3B divided by 685K shares). They pay no dividend and you hope they reinvest the proceeds of any sale into their communities, resorts, future developments, etc.

You need to be in for the long-term and you need to be able to forego the income, but I like this as a long-term position in my portfolio. This will also be a great stock to track to get a sense for the direction of the NW Florida real estate market.

My $0.02.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
At a share price of $25 you get to buy a piece of JOE at an average price per acre of $3,365 per acre. ($2.3B divided by 685K shares). They pay no dividend and you hope they reinvest the proceeds of any sale into their communities, resorts, future developments, etc.

You don't need to "hope" that they reinvest proceeds of sales...you can look at their financials.

For example, in the last quarter (in thousands):

EARNINGS: 32,836
OP EXP: 54,094
OP INC: (21,258)
NET INC: (19,198)

There were no proceeds to reinvest.

http://ir.joe.com/annuals.cfm
.
 

fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
JOE stock is not about buying earnings or dividends - that should be obvious because they have neither.

You need to believe that management can add value to the 685K acres they own (I may be off a few acres). They add value by increasing the value of the acres over many years. Personally, I have a high level of confidence that JOE creates something unique in an area where they are the largest land owner giving them a sustainable competitive advantage. There are very few companies that can say they have as strong a position in their local market as JOE does in the future development of what I believe is some of the most beautiful land in the US.

You can run and crunch the numbers all you want. Here's one way you may want to think about it as an investment. JOE issues 92.2 million shares of stock priced at around $25 per share giving it a market value of $2.3B. They own 685K acres of Florida land, some of which is Grade A, beachfront, some is Grade B, retail / commercial and some if Grade C, mostly rural.

At a share price of $25 you get to buy a piece of JOE at an average price per acre of $3,365 per acre. ($2.3B divided by 685K shares). They pay no dividend and you hope they reinvest the proceeds of any sale into their communities, resorts, future developments, etc.

You need to be in for the long-term and you need to be able to forego the income, but I like this as a long-term position in my portfolio. This will also be a great stock to track to get a sense for the direction of the NW Florida real estate market.

My $0.02.

Considering that the VAST MAJORITY of the acreage is RURAL and that the most recent transactions (that actually did not close) were for less than $1500 per RURAL acre, your $3400 per acre number is a real stretch--especially considering the carrying cost of the land for the next umpteen years. In addition, you did not consider the cost of running the company until that land is sold. Expenses are running at $60 million plus per year. Nor did you consider the taxation on the proceeds from the land sales or additional taxation on the shareholders in the event any of these proceeds actually make it back into the hands of the shareholders. JOE is a bust.
 
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YoungFT

Beach Lover
Aug 1, 2006
66
22
"There were no proceeds to reinvest"

Thanks Dr. Obvious. If you're an investor who assumes they will NEVER have proceeds to reinvest, than no one would buy the stock. Give a guy more credit than that.

As for the $3400 per acre being a stretch - that's the bet isn't it. The land they sold recently which was all rural in the worst real estate market in anyone's memory tells me that there's a floor to JOE stock - and that in and of itself is something more than 95% of the stocks traded can offer.

Time will tell if buying stock in JOE in the 20's was a good investment.
 
"There were no proceeds to reinvest"

Thanks Dr. Obvious. If you're an investor who assumes they will NEVER have proceeds to reinvest, than no one would buy the stock. Give a guy more credit than that.

As for the $3400 per acre being a stretch - that's the bet isn't it. The land they sold recently which was all rural in the worst real estate market in anyone's memory tells me that there's a floor to JOE stock - and that in and of itself is something more than 95% of the stocks traded can offer.

Time will tell if buying stock in JOE in the 20's was a good investment.

You seem to be a proponent of JOE. I respect your opinion. I've seen some good stuff from you in the past.

I have been asking so many people who seem to know JOE this question;

JOE seems to be selling off their holdings with know visible signs of expansion. That looks like an orderly shut down. Do they have any plans beyond entitling their strategic holdings and liquidating them?

I am taking my show on the road on this issue. Maybe somebody in the bigger media has some insight. This affects all of us in Northwest Florida as JOE is the steward of holdings with regional impact.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
ph wizardly one, how is your 'bet' been working out since you wagered it last february. is crox worth a look on the long side again? short deckers now, all else equal


Bob,

You must have been on vacation during Oct/Nov:

http://sowal.com/bb/showpost.php?p=311381&postcount=18

I've been out :cool:

Looks like a JOE vs CROX horserace is sizing up. I'd bet on CROX, but that's history now and I've moved on.

.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
hey Elgordo boy, i think you've missed your point, in referring back to your beloved Shel's disdain for JOE, vs. his love for CROX.... JOE is down 25% in that time frame, but do you care to inform us what CROX is down - I wish you were a consultant - would you give me praise for such relative woeful underperformance if I were a PM? sloppy work elgordo, i expect better out of you, but I understand you're desire to lick shelley's popsicle


Wonder what he'll refer to you as now...from time to time.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
ph wizardly one, how is your 'bet' been working out since you wagered it last february. is crox worth a look on the long side again? short deckers now, all else equal

Both CROX and JOE are dogs and fodder for the shorts (although the Short Interest Ratio of JOE is almost twice that of CROX)...but like I said in February (having taken my profits off the table months pervious), "I've moved on"
 
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