Is JOE worth buying ???

http://stocksbelowncav.blogspot.com/2007/08/david-einhorn-of-greenlight-capital.html


This was the contra case Einhorn was responding to.

Yes, the houses are sad that they were built and are now sitting empty. They yearn for the pitter patter of little feet and joyous celebration like their "friends" in other established neighborhoods have. Houses have feelings too. Maybe what the market needs is really medical help, not financial :leaving:

House Prozac?

I've been quite bearish on JOE, but lose a bit of respect for Einhorn (the vaunted Einhorn) after reading his self - interested post lowballing the valuation on JOE... Einhorn, the smartest guy in the room, was as LONG subprime mortgage lenders as anyone... and at times I'm told can be dismissive and arrogant ; I've been on conference calls with him, where in 2005 he was dismissing bearish views on New Century and Accredited H L, as so idiotic and novice as to be laughable... I'll admit he was very much the right way on that trade for a while, but i don't think that he'll admit that - in the end - it was he, D. E. the great, who absolutely called it wrong in the largest sense, despite trading it right for a while while riding mo'.

It's because of guys like Einhorn, who don't understand the panhandle, as most New Yorkers (not all of course) don't get it... that there will be an opportunity to buy JOE soon. I'm encouraged that D.E. the great is short. I like to have some healthy "built-in" covering demand for stocks I'm considering buying, and hope these New Yorkers push this JOE down real real low. sub 25 would be great, but I'll probably not wait that long to start buying.

Robert

I think you should know that I am a born and bred New yorker. I moved to Sedona in 2004 and bought my building lot in Watersound in 2002. But I will always be a New Yorker. I tell you this in the interest of full disclosure because this is one New yorker who thinks JOE is a great long term holding. I may be foolish in starting my position at 40 but I only bought 500 shares....my next buy point will be at 36 amd so on until it gets to 30, if ever. I am not smart enough to know when the bottom is in JOE or the mkt in general ,but I believe there is value now in JOE as well as the money center banks. There is so much volatility in the stock market now that some great opportunities are, and have been created...and for all anyone knows things could get worse BUT NO ONE KNOWS. But I am very comgortable buying beaten down great companies now. AIG C BAC CB COP GE HAL MO as well as other blue chips, all got clobbered in the last 10 days. I think it was because of the need of hedge funds and other entities to raise cash to meet margin calls and the big uglies are very liquid and easy to sell. You saw that on Thursday and Friday when GE finally got hit. The worst may be over BUT JOE, LOW, HD and MAS are the only housing related companies I would buy now.

Obviously, Einhorns' "analysis" is completely self-serving and what one would expect of a short. I think JOE has more long-term value than he does. But this won't be viable for some time; maybe not 'till 2010 or so. So you do need to discount back to PV. The 2001-2002 price, prior to the liquidity boom in the 23-29 range would be a good buy.

The absence of infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, power) makes huge swatches of JOE land overvalued--even before considering the current falling prices for land.

IMO some folks are still clinging to the notion that real estate is a fantastic investment--much like some thought of tech as it slid down in 2000.

Tech has a chance of clawing its way back up again in time...but when the dust after the pop settles, real estate will revert back to normal--returning just over the rate of inflation.


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Robert

I tell you this in the interest of full disclosure because this is one New yorker who thinks JOE is a great long term holding. I may be foolish in starting my position at 40 but I only bought 500 shares....my next buy point will be at 36 amd so on until it gets to 30, if ever.

Time for another Cup O' JOE at <35...<34...<33?

JOE has sold off all 17 of its office buildings (there goes that revenue down the tubes)--what are they going to sell for "income" next?

kinda reminds me of an old joke:

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A farmer walks into a bar with a three-legged pig. The bartender asks, "How come that pig's missing a leg?"

"Well," says the farmer, "there was a big fire. My house burned right down to the ground. My family and I all would have burned up with it if this pig hadn't come into the flaming, smoke-filled house and dragged each of us out, one by one."

"Wow," says the bartender, respectfully.

"Yep," says the farmer, "and you just don't eat a pig like that all at once."

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so close to buying here... JOE is 33.85.. with 90 minutes to go in trading day.

i'd like to see it at 33.50 to start buying...

we don't yet know how tropical storm Dean is looking, but not all things are knowable.

I did buy some NLY this morning around 12.50... and took a flier on some IMH on the open as well.

so I am starting to shed my bearishness on real estate finally...

close to buying JOE.... but no trigger yet.

proud owner of a wee bit of JOE now, so I'm sure it's heading significantly lower....

but I'll take some here at 33.55 and take my chances...

I know not many agree with me about buying it now, but then again, where were all the bears when JOE was at $80. it's ok being lonely...

If Dean hits, I'll be buying in the 20's...

I'm with you Robertson. I added to a small JOE position here. I bought in intially around 37 several years ago with the intent to hold long term. Should have sold at 80. But you gotta love their assets.

Time for another Cup O' JOE at <35...<34...<33?

JOE has sold off all 17 of its office buildings (there goes that revenue down the tubes)--what are they going to sell for "income" next?

kinda reminds me of an old joke:

------------------------
A farmer walks into a bar with a three-legged pig. The bartender asks, "How come that pig's missing a leg?"

"Well," says the farmer, "there was a big fire. My house burned right down to the ground. My family and I all would have burned up with it if this pig hadn't come into the flaming, smoke-filled house and dragged each of us out, one by one."

"Wow," says the bartender, respectfully.

"Yep," says the farmer, "and you just don't eat a pig like that all at once."

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i do love their assets, although I haven't always agreed with their valuation...

it'll probably be $25 soon... but this kind of lets people know where their property values have gone... JOE was up at $85, now at $33 and falling.

2008 is going to be ugly.

NO pain no gain. OUCH !! own 1000. bidding 32 for 500.

NO pain no gain. OUCH !! own 1000. bidding 32 for 500.

Goofer,

Congrats...yours are made of brass!

This one's for you: YouTube - Leadership - Glengarry Glen Ross (Warning: Strong language)

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One of my all time favorite movies !!!

Goofer...

Hey, good for you. JOE is seriously oversold here and the huge volume may be a near a short-term bottom.

I've got a buy order in at 30 and then at 26.

thanks.... g g ross... defining great dialogue...

isn't that what we have going here? a dialogue?

...at least Goofer and I have a dialogue....

JOE is down what 60% or 70% from its highs.... I say the stock is closer to being a buy than real estate in South Walton, an area that I love. I'll let the stock form a bottom in here now at 1997 levels...... i invite people to short this stock now.... I welcome the "built in" demand.

I used to be the so called built-in demand, on JOE a while back.

I know a trend when i see one.... and JOE is not going lower than 25, and may not go lower than 33 for that matter.... so its time to buy if you like South Walton, but don't own enuf of it - like me. I suspect that many own too much of the physical SoWal at this point, to partiicpate in the liquid proxy, J-O-E.

Yeeee HAWWWW... let's get this thing down a few more dollars so we can get in more substantially.

I know a trend when i see one.... and JOE is not going lower than 25, and may not go lower than 33 for that matter.... so its time to buy if you like South Walton, but don't own enuf of it - like me. I suspect that many own too much of the physical SoWal at this point, to partiicpate in the liquid proxy, J-O-E.

Yeeee HAWWWW... let's get this thing down a few more dollars so we can get in more substantially.

RD,

I'm assuming you are going long JOE. That being the case, convince me that buying JOE now--and at this price point--is a good investment. Can you do that without using the words and phrases, "$2,000 an Acre," "Baby Boomers," "Airport," "Disney," "Jungle Jim's Wild Animal Farm," and "Erik Estrada?"


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View attachment 6072

pure emotion - see attached and see for yourself,

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ponch

The short answer
NO

Considering that JOE is currently about 60% off of its highs, and real estate sales are off, but not nearly that much, I think JOE is looking pretty attractive.

NO pain no gain. OUCH !! own 1000. bidding 32 for 500.

I guess you just picked up another 500 of JOE--what's next?


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shelley thanks for monitoring my JOE position. Bidding 30.50 for 1000. i own 1500 now.

i picked up more today around noon hour too...

was kind of nice to see it close up today, but on the other hand I'd like to see it re-test its lows, so i can add more at 30....

cheers,