Real Estate Supply

[Pirate]

JOE's warning on earnings was 3 days ago, check my last post replying to someone that stated what a great "bargain" the stock was, and then insulted another poster asking what they did for a living because they didn't like the stock. If I had a house ready to go in Watercolor and had spent the money to get it ready post haste I wouldn't be too happy.

 

[Miss Kitty]

And what happens with those folks who purchased extensions? Are they receiving a refund? Then there's the lot owners that sold at lower prices to avoid the build-out, but otherwise wouldn't have sold.

I guess it's another new rule in the RE game.

 

[SHELLY]

JOE's warning on earnings was 3 days ago, check my last post replying to someone that stated what a great "bargain" the stock was, and then insulted another poster asking what they did for a living because they didn't like the stock.

(1) That was me that they were asking what I did for a living. (Basically eating, drinking and breathing in and out appears to do the trick)

(2) and although it was true that JOE warned they were going to lower their earnings outlook for 2006 (during their amusing CC in May), I expect them to warn that they're going to miss their upcoming quarterly earnings--that is, of course, if they don't sell off a bunch of those "Beach Club Memberships" at 20-g's a pop before the special offer time runs out.

 

[Mango]

Excellent strategy! As a "quite conservative" investor, I'm betting you don't hold a fistful of pre-construction condo contracts? I'd be interested in hearing your personal thoughts (not the rah-rah real estate slant) on current preconstruction sale investments and the condo market glut along the panhandle. Do you envision y-o-y double-digit appreciation in these completed units (and resale condos) over the next couple of years--or ever again?

Also, if you envision SoWal built out (and up) with affluent communities (of ever-increasing property appreciation) populated with folks who don't have to work for a living, where are the folks who will be required to service this booming population (i.e., non-affluent people who DO have to work for a living) supposed to live?

I've been watching these posts, and one thing I do not understand is why people are so concerned with affordable housing directly in Walton County.
I live in New York about an hour or so North of Manhattan. Many people in our area obviously have to commute to work about 45 minutes on an average. Our area has grown so much in the past 10 years and the real estate prices have soared here as well.
If SOWal grows to where there are mainly retirees, and second home owners, the economics of that growth alwasy showing areas further North growing and worker bees commuting. There is a lot of land North of us like in Bonifay where the new animal park will be, and in Defuniak Springs, Bruce etc.
People should be concentrating on investing in more medical facilities, attracting nurses, and quality physicians. These are the professions with highest growth in retiring communities. Frankly, after having been a native New Yorker for so and having access to some of the best physicians and hospitals in the world, if I lived in Sowal full time and something serious happened to me, I would be on a plane to a more metropolitan area like NY or DC faster than Roger Rabbitt .
Las vegas being a good example of retirees dominating the area and the phenomenal growth in medical professionals coming to the area.

I can guarantee you that if "affordable" housing goes in in SoWal, it will not be something people who want to maintain the integrity of SoWal and the feel will appreciate. Here in New York, affordable hosuing means aprtment complexes.
If I were a worker bee who was looking to locate to the area for employment, I would certainly be looking at buying some place more affordable North of SoWal. Still a great lifestyle being 45 mins to an hour from the beach for weekend family time. I have to drive at least 2 hours to get to a beach in New York or Jersey.

In my opinion, SoWal should be looking outside of the box to help bring people to our area, like perhaps buying land North of us to build more affordable housing, offering bridge discounts for commuters etc.

Show me any place in the country in a coastal community besides possibly Hawaii (where if your not Hawaiian you can not "own" the land) that there is "affordable housing" within 1 mile or so from beautiful beaches and coastal homes worth millions of dollars.
If you find one, tell me how the area residents feel about it.

 

[Smiling JOe]

I've been watching these posts, and one thing I do not understand is why people are so concerned with affordable housing directly in Walton County.

If affordable housing is built in the neighboring counties, Bay or Okaloosa, the people living there will not need come to Walton Co to work. The state of Alabama is to our north, and affordable housing in Alabama will not help get employees to the job sites in Walton Co. Even if we eventually get affordable housing as close as Freeport, in the next 8 yrs, Freeport will be needing all of those people so SoWal will remain without a labor pool.

 

[beachmouse]

There's a huge difference between a relatively pleasant and cheap 45 minute commute in the city when you're using public transportation, and when you're having to drive private vehicles for the trip in. Looking at the DC Metro fares, I'll use $6/day as a transportation cost for between a commute between the Hill and an inside the beltway burb. So about $130/month.

The 45 minute commute here is a 40 mile trip from the north part of the county. So figure a vehicle getting 20 mpg, and a cost of gas of $3/gal, and you've talking $12/day on fuel costs alone, or probably $240 on fuel costs alone. Add in insurance and maitenance and you're up to $300/month to get to work, and that's not even including a car payment if you've still got a note on it. Average cost per month probably works out to $400/month just to get to work and back.

Lots of the people who aren't living closer to SoWal because they can't afford it are making $1500-$2000 in take home pay every month. So they're paying 25% of their after tax income just to get to work and back, and that's before those pesky little things like rent and groceries.

As for Okaloosa and affordable housing. There is effectively no room to build much of anything else in the south part of the county. Privately held land south of I-10 is effectively 95%+ built out, and redevelopment costs are pretty high. It will take an actual act of Congress to get Eglin Reservation land into private hands, so that last 5% gets developed, it's pretty much it. So the affordable housing initiatives get pushed up to Crestview, with the same transportation problems you get with SoWal and employees.

 

[Franny]

Those who purchased an extension can either get a refund or have the 2 years added to the end of their extension.

Hi Joe..Is this statement your opinion or actual?? We paid the fine!!

 

[SHELLY]

I've been watching these posts, and one thing I do not understand is why people are so concerned with affordable housing directly in Walton County.

Some folks are concerned because they are discovering it difficult to find reliable, reasonably priced service workers to clean their rental units....

SJ said it best--as "affordable housing communities" are carved out up north and the population of those communities grow, folks who lived in the areas and used to commute down south will stay put in the "affordable community." Why pay for the commute in time, gas and maintenance to a "seasonal job" that pays $12.50ph when you can stay put and work at Wal-mart year-round at $9ph?

A couple months ago there was a young, newly-minted physician who was offered a job in the area but couldn't find "affordable housing" for his family on a 6-figure salary (I'm suspecting he was smart enough to know not to get into one of those killer option ARM). Most of the "affluent" oldsters who own down here don't settle in SoWal year-round like they do in Naples, Sarasota, Ft Lauderdale and the like--that's where the $$$ is so that's where the doctors go.

SoWal is still a seasonal resort town that requires relatively cheap, abundant and seasonal labor. The problem is that it is flanked on all sides by resort areas requiring the same--and all of which are continuously adding more vacation condos, retail and restaurants which require more and more low-cost labor. Without affordable housing within a reasonable commute,
service in SoWal will continue to decline and/or prices will continue to escalate in an effort to lure service workers to the area.

The real estate money grab has upset the economic (and ecologic) balance of the entire panhandle--interesting times are ahead.

 

[Joe Complete]

Hi Joe..Is this statement your opinion or actual?? We paid the fine!!

It is a fact which I obtained from the official St. Joe posting on the Watercolor TownTalk. In that posting they also provide the contact information for requesting the refund.

 

[SHELLY]

Hi Joe..Is this statement your opinion or actual?? We paid the fine!!

Two Year Extension granted to WaterSound Beach Home Site Owners
TWO YEAR EXTENSION GRANTED TO WATERSOUND BEACH HOME SITE OWNERS

The St. Joe Company (?JOE?) announced today the granting of a one-time, two-year extension of the Commencement of Construction requirements for existing home site owners in WaterSound Beach. ?St. Joe?s original purpose for the Commencement of Construction Date requirement was to accelerate the creation of a community, which brings value to all owners, and that remains our objective,? said Rod Wilson, President of St. Joe Towns and Resorts, Northwest Florida. ?However, in this new climate, we believe that there must be some flexibility in our efforts to achieve this goal. Therefore, we believe it is in the best interest of the WaterSound Beach community and all of its property owners to grant this extension.?

A number of WaterSound Beach property owners have requested an extension of their Commencement of Construction Date to facilitate the construction of a home, or the sale of their home site to an end user, within the contractually specified timeframe. Among those requesting extensions, many cite the change in local real estate conditions, such as limited availability of architects, contractors and materials, as contributing factors that have impacted the timely construction of new homes in WaterSound Beach.

In determining the best course of action, JOE is striving to be fair to all parties while giving priority to the long-term interests of both individual property owners and the community as a whole. Wilson commented, ?Under conditions that exist today, we believe that extending existing Commencement of Construction Dates will help stimulate an environment that will facilitate ownership of properties by end users that, in turn, will lead to the orderly construction of homes and the completion of the WaterSound Beach community.?

How the Program Will Work
?This one-time, two-year extension of the Commencement of Construction Date will automatically apply to all home sites which have not yet commenced construction in all phases of the WaterSound Beach community, effective June 1, 2006.

?Current owners do not need to apply to receive the extension.

?Owners who had purchased extensions under the existing program will have two years added to the extended date unless they request a refund of any extension fees they have paid, in which case the additional two-year extension period runs from the owner?s original Commencement of Construction Date that applies to their home site. Owners electing a refund of their extension fees should contact Christian Franek at 850-231-6584. Effective June 1, 2006, the existing program for extensions at $2,500 per month is suspended.

?All non-refunded extension fees previously paid, less all expenses of administering the extension program, will be transferred to the HOA as originally planned.

?As the original seller of all affected home sites, St. Joe Home Building, L.P. will continue to reserve all rights under the original Agreement to Purchase a Home Site.