St Joe stock appears to rebounding, why?

[AAbsolute]

Great points. Thanks for clarifying.

So that I understand, Watersound West is a 62 acre development with 199 units planned. If the 62 acres were sold at 100,000 JOE would have generated a sale price of 6.2mm. Allocating that cost out to the 199 units you have a homesite in Watersound West at a cost basis to the developer of $31K? The developer would want to mark that land up to cover his risk and carrying costs. So maybe 100% markup? This results in prices at Watersound West of less than 75K and a quick look on the website shows homesites listed around 300K on average.

I'm thinking the cost basis assumption was way too low.

Even factor in an additional 50% reduction in land prices and you're still at a higher level.

Unless I missed something, I think there is some good value in JOE if you have the right time horizon - which is long!

IMO, Watersound West Beach contains JOE's most valuable entitled property. Most everything else in their holdings portfolio is worth 1/30th per acre on average.

 

[dunefrog]

IMO, Watersound West Beach contains JOE's most valuable entitled property. Most everything else in their holdings portfolio is worth 1/30th per acre on average.

Why would WWB be more valuable than Watersound Beach or WaterColor? Granted WC is lower elevation, but it is also next to Seaside, which I think increases its value. WB appears to be identical topographically to WWB. But WB has much more beachfront, a beachclub, and dune lake buffers on both sides. Doesn't WWB have other developments right next door and much less beach/view. Am I mistaken? I've never actually seen WWB. Thanks.

 

[Miss Kitty]

SHELLY, I thought shorting was now illegal?

Excellent question! Are shorters like flippers?

 

[yorkshireman]

Excellent question! Are shorters like flippers?

Kinda. In that they are speculators. Otherwise not really.

They borrow a stock and sell it. Then they buy it back and return it to its owner.

If the stock has gone down in the interim they make profit from the difference in price bought and sold. If it has gone up vice versa.

 

[AAbsolute]

Why would WWB be more valuable than Watersound Beach or WaterColor? Granted WC is lower elevation, but it is also next to Seaside, which I think increases its value. WB appears to be identical topographically to WWB. But WB has much more beachfront, a beachclub, and dune lake buffers on both sides. Doesn't WWB have other developments right next door and much less beach/view. Am I mistaken? I've never actually seen WWB. Thanks.

IMO, JOE doesn't show much in their portfolio for Watersound Beach or Watercolor. Most of their holdings in those neighborhoods have been sold. West Beach is South of 30A and is probably only 12% to 15% sold out.

 

[fisher]

Great points. Thanks for clarifying.

So that I understand, Watersound West is a 62 acre development with 199 units planned. If the 62 acres were sold at 100,000 JOE would have generated a sale price of 6.2mm. Allocating that cost out to the 199 units you have a homesite in Watersound West at a cost basis to the developer of $31K? The developer would want to mark that land up to cover his risk and carrying costs. So maybe 100% markup? This results in prices at Watersound West of less than 75K and a quick look on the website shows homesites listed around 300K on average.

I'm thinking the cost basis assumption was way too low.

Even factor in an additional 50% reduction in land prices and you're still at a higher level.

Unless I missed something, I think there is some good value in JOE if you have the right time horizon - which is long!

You continue to miss the big picture.

You are still focusing on 62 acres out of the 10's of thousands of entitled land. Even if the WSWB land is worth more than $100k per acre, the other 10's of thousands of acres are worth a small fraction of the WSWB property. The WSWB property at $200k an acre (way too high when considering green space, roads, etc) is only worth $12.4 million to Joe (assuming none of it was sold already). This amount is totally immaterial to the overall valuation of Joe. The total remaining holdings in WSWB, WSB and WC are a dot on the Joe landscape. It's the other giant tracts of land in Deland, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, etc that make the difference in valuation and it is a huge, huge stretch to think this land is worth $100k per acre on average.

 

[wrobert]

I think I will go buy some Ford and GM and be done with it all.

 

[YoungFT]

You continue to miss the big picture.

It happens to the best of us.

I have no personal interest in pumping the stock I just think it's a great time to buy the stock. I do think that JOE stock is the best indicator out there for anyone who actually owns land in SoWal of what the value of your asset is (I'm still dreaming of the day when I can say I own a piece of paradise)

As for JOE's stock price, I don't know of a single place in the US that has as good a barometer of the value of land than JOE is for Nwest Florida. It's holdings are a great cross-section of rural, resort and forestry and it trades much more liquid than the underlying land.

This is just my humble opinion but JOE stock falling from a peak trading range of $70-80 per share to a more recent trading range of $30-40 per share is as good a reflection as you'll find anywhere of where prices are likely to bottom for land in Nwest Florida.

In other words, land will have fallen about 50% from the peak when prices have bottomed. JOE stock got to the bottom quicker and will also reflect the slow climb back faster than the land itself.

My $.02

 

[SHELLY]

SHELLY, I thought shorting was now illegal?

Shorting stocks is not illegal.

The SEC produced a list of companies which traders are temporarily banned from shorting...JOE wasn't on the list.


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[SHELLY]

Excellent question! Are shorters like flippers?

No, shorters aren't like flippers--"Day-traders" are like flippers...only without the insurance payments, HOA fees, maintenance costs, 6% commission to sell and granite countertops.

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