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homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.

.

I have watched with great amusement over the past few months as you went from a buy and hold for 50 years guy (with no supporting data for your position) to a day trader touting the daily increase in price for JOE.

How many times have you bought and sold over the past few months? Or, as per your first post, did you really buy and are you holding for 50 years?

Looks like JOE's number may be up--management realizes the company doesn't have any significant long term value so they are looking for the greater fool.

So, if JOE sells, will you sell along with the rest of the shareholders (that is if you even own any shares) or will you really stick along for the ride for 50 years.

I still contend that whoever owns these assets for the next 50 years will never, ever realize anywhere near the current value placed on the company.

Would still love to see your support for the current or higher valuation.
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
If you start back at the beginning of the thread, you will note that it was Shelly who was giving the weekly announcements of stock price, because he said it was a game and fun to do. robertdavies is just doing the same. They have a wager and want to make it fun.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,846
3,471
56
Right here!
forget the stock then what about South Walton? Is it beautiful?
To me its the most beautiful beach in the North America. It dawned on me while in Park City a few short weeks ago, and I came upon listings for shacks that were "walk to lift, walk to town" for a two and three milliion apiece, and it hit me right there very hard that not only was I right about JOE, but that at least on a relative basis, South Walton was incredibly undervalued, as opposed to mountain real estate out west. Beach real estate is more unique than its given credit for currently, and the BP spill and the 04-06 Hurricane spike has put the undervaluation to out-of- control levels. Afterall, they could put 50 more Park Cities up in Northeast Utah, on any given mountain ridge they choose, and same goes for Aspen or Vail and on and on, but there really isn't that much lineal beach frontage as pricing in South Walton would make one now believe, and South Walton has the unbelievably unique characteristic of no buildings over 48 feet (or thereabouts??), which is an exponentially limiting factor over the long term for units when you look at what can be very close to the beach.

I'm not saying mountain vs. beach. I'm saying that if I can buy a run down "walk to lifts" 3 br home in Park City, where I want to spend 14 days a year, for 2.7 Million, shouldn't a similarly run down 1750 sq. ft 3 bedroom in Seagrove or Seacreste that I can walk to the beach or Seaside be worth more a bit more than 270K, if not 2.7 M?? I say long JOE, and if in doubt, short MTN against it.


That's all for now folks, I'll check back in a few weeks.

Enjoyed it.

This area will get like that in time. South Walton is small. There's very little sought after, developable land here. The problem with Joe is they don't own any of this land anymore! They sold it all off which was made pretty clear in that presentation.
 

coondog

Beach Lover
Apr 27, 2009
153
29
They spent millions relocating thier key executives to Walton County, despite eight straight quarters of non-stop losses and burning cash. Their CEO waived paying the St. Joe Foundation fee when he purchased his home in Watercolor, because he is apparently special. A month before they sue BP for $1B, their CEO tells the press the oil spill really hasn't affected JOE because they are not really a residential company anymore, rather more of a commercial company. They donate land to build an airport in a swamp that his continually fogged in (I have been returned to Atlanta twice already and my Mom spent the night in Orlando due to fog), based on the premise that build it and they will come. Who is coming to the airport? There is no distribution need to be locatd next to the airport, nor is their freight capacity. Hotels? Why would you stay there when you can drive ten minutes and be on the beach. Management simply has no clue, and now they are losing control of the Board of Directors to outside investors due to their inept management.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
I think South Walton is gorgeous and a wonderful area - but they don't sell stock in it.

Would love to invest in some local businesses, but none of the ones I love are publicly traded (at least to my knowledge).

Rarely have I seen you so wrong. There probably are very few pockets in America more represented by one publicly traded company that acts as a proxy for the value of said area as JOE for South Walton. Sure, Joe's holdings go beyond south walton in the Pandhandle, but South Walton's entire economy is tied to real estate essentially and tourism, as is JOE's. Very few areas in America have such a proxy. If you want to buy Atlanta, buying Coke won't do justice to your train of thought, nor AT&T nor UPS... all global businesses, and the same is true of most cities. If you want to be "long" memphis, buying FedEx is related, but doesn't really get you there, as their fortunes are tied to global logistics...

Scooterbug, your statements above are surprisingly ill-considered.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
If you start back at the beginning of the thread, you will note that it was Shelly who was giving the weekly announcements of stock price, because he said it was a game and fun to do. robertdavies is just doing the same. They have a wager and want to make it fun.

Thanks.
Well, he (shellly) was giving updates, until it was obvious that Intel was going nowhere, and JOE was going up 50%.
 

Jesus

Beach Lover
Thanks.
Well, he (shellly) was giving updates, until it was obvious that Intel was going nowhere, and JOE was going up 50%.

This is for the last 5 years, and it hasn't been much bettter for JOE over the last 1 or 2 years. Also, are you ignoring the fact that INTEL offers a dividend upwards of 3%? My opinion is that with JOE, it ain't so.:dunno:
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
This is for the last 5 years, and it hasn't been much bettter for JOE over the last 1 or 2 years. Also, are you ignoring the fact that INTEL offers a dividend upwards of 3%? My opinion is that with JOE, it ain't so.:dunno:

Thanks Jesus for showing us your faith in Intel. If you read above much further, you'll see that I'm suggesting JOE as a holding for 50 years - back at the beginning of November, 2010 about 12 or so weeks ago. So to me, your point about what the stocks have done in the rear view mirror going back a few years is interesting, but not of limited use in telling me where they're going in the future.

I am ignoring the dividend for the last 12 weeks or so that INTC spins out, because it's added about 0.19 percent so far, to the total return for INTC... dividends add up, and so they're something to consider over the long term, but dividend policies change, especially with technology companies, that could be surpassed in 'technology' next year, decade you name it.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
They spent millions relocating thier key executives to Walton County, despite eight straight quarters of non-stop losses and burning cash. Their CEO waived paying the St. Joe Foundation fee when he purchased his home in Watercolor, because he is apparently special. A month before they sue BP for $1B, their CEO tells the press the oil spill really hasn't affected JOE because they are not really a residential company anymore, rather more of a commercial company. They donate land to build an airport in a swamp that his continually fogged in (I have been returned to Atlanta twice already and my Mom spent the night in Orlando due to fog), based on the premise that build it and they will come. Who is coming to the airport? There is no distribution need to be locatd next to the airport, nor is their freight capacity. Hotels? Why would you stay there when you can drive ten minutes and be on the beach. Management simply has no clue, and now they are losing control of the Board of Directors to outside investors due to their inept management.

Coondog, you're letting minor issues get in the way of seeing the forest here (with JOE, the 'forest' is literal too:) Executive compensation is being slashed going forward, because it has been excessive - agreed. Bruce Berkowitz agrees and is forcing change right now on your point; your concerns on that are legitimate, but they are already 'baked in" to the stock price, whats not yet baked in is an efficient, do no harm management team.

What you're buying when you buy JOE is a piece of Northwest Florida at timberland price, in an era where we're printing money, devaluing paper assets in favor of hard assets. So the value is there if you agree with me that a chunk of JOE's land (2 percent, 5 percent, 15%) is worth much more than $2200 per acre. For me, about 90 % of JOE's land is worth about $4000 an acre, because I use a higher price for timberland. To me about 8% of the land is worth $23,000 an acre. And about 2% of the acreage is worth about $950,000 per acre on average in a recovered economy.

JOE's NAV using the above assumptions is somewhere around $100 a share, but you have to back out the time used to surface the net asset value. Since long term interest rates are very low right now, I'm backing out less than others might, but I get a present value of 52-56, but that will probably prove conservative

cheers
 

scooterbug44

SoWal Expert
May 8, 2007
16,732
3,330
Sowal
Rarely have I seen you so wrong. There probably are very few pockets in America more represented by one publicly traded company that acts as a proxy for the value of said area as JOE for South Walton. Sure, Joe's holdings go beyond south walton in the Pandhandle, but South Walton's entire economy is tied to real estate essentially and tourism, as is JOE's. Very few areas in America have such a proxy. If you want to buy Atlanta, buying Coke won't do justice to your train of thought, nor AT&T nor UPS... all global businesses, and the same is true of most cities. If you want to be "long" memphis, buying FedEx is related, but doesn't really get you there, as their fortunes are tied to global logistics...

Scooterbug, your statements above are surprisingly ill-considered.

I have spent years getting a firsthand look at how JOE does business and how it interacts with the community. They are the antithesis of companies I choose to invest in on EVERY point.

1) Horrible environmental record
2) Do not pay a dividend
3) Lots of lobbying politicians to get the rules changed in their favor
4) Do not treat their employees well
5) More interested in the short term spreadsheet than long term planning
6) Leadership from outside instead of promoting from within the company
7) High turnover rate
8) Business model based on constant expansion and sales of a finite commodity

My point was that Sowal and Joe are 2 very different beasts - and I would invest in Sowal.

I would also invest in some of the great people working for Joe/Noble House/etc. but that isn't an option either.
 
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