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robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Shelly,

Please keep the portfolio updates coming over the coming months, as the bet unfolds.

You're off to a great start, taking the S&P against JOE. ON a sidenote, I'm not sure who is betting against INTC, but that's fun to watch it go up too, as it should.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
Shelly,

Please keep the portfolio updates coming over the coming months, as the bet unfolds.

You're off to a great start, taking the S&P against JOE. ON a sidenote, I'm not sure who is betting against INTC, but that's fun to watch it go up too, as it should.

Welcome back, Matey! How was the cruise?

.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Welcome back, Matey! How was the cruise?

.

splendid, Roatan has some good snorkeling...

reminded me why Florida is valuable though.... on the way to the beach, everyone in Roatan we saw walking, carried a Mashedi (sic)... since South Walton is now priced like 3rd world Caribbean, there may be some value here afterall.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
reminded me why Florida is valuable though.... on the way to the beach, everyone in Roatan we saw walking, carried a Mashedi (sic)... since South Walton is now priced like 3rd world Caribbean, there may be some value here afterall.

...the value takes a bit of a hit when you factor out the opportunity to swim just about year-round and the 24-7 AYCE food fests available on the cruise ships.

Then there's this:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DzcOCyHDqc"]YouTube - Indiana Jones : Sword vs. Gun[/ame]

.
 
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homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
Most of JOE's holdings are worthless swampland (think of Rivercamps that is a total bust), not prime beachfront like Watersound or Watercolor. Not worth $5 bucks a share.[/QUOTE

homeboy, sounds like you've done a deep dive analysis on this on a per share/per acre basis. could you please share any details of that analysis... your thoughts on JOE's balance sheet, and on some comparable price per acre sales of acreages bth near the beach, near swamp or pine forest??

Sure.

balance sheet looks reasonably healthy, BUT a good chunk of the cash was generated from tax refunds over the past couple of years. Outside these refunds, they are BLEEDING cash. At current burn rate, they will be out of cash in a couple of years with little capacity to borrow due to negative ebitda.

Pull out your excel spreadsheets and do a DCF analysis like I did. Assume they sell all 577,000 acres at 20k acres per year for the next 29 years (only sold about 1k this year). Assume a 10k per acre sales price (way too high, given that the bulk sales have been going in the range of 2-4k recently), 50% ebitda margin (again way too high historically), 39% tax rate, and a 10% discount rate. With these aggressive assumptions, the business isn't even worth $10 per share.

Was that enough detail, or do you need more?
 

homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
back in 2006 I suggested to folks to short JOE, if they couldn't sell there home in South Walton, as a proxy for doing the same. I think the pendulum has swung ridiculously far to the negative side, and that the Short Joe trade is cooked, done. I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.

good luck to all.

That is absolutely the WORST piece of investment advice EVER. 50 Years? Do you understand JOES business model. They don't sell widgets or services. They have a limited inventory of land. In 50 years, JOE will be out of business. If successful, all land will be sold and remaining cash will be paid out to shareholders (with a terrible return after considering ongoing operating costs, corporate income taxes and personal taxes on the dividend to shareholders upon dissolution) or they will have gone bankrupt long before due to inability to cover operating costs.

At least CROX, INTEL, etc make products and do not have a finite supply of inventory from which to produce revenues and profits.

50 years-you lost that bet the minute you made it.
 
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Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,772
in 50 years, I bet CROX is out of business due to changing trend or lead found in the shoes.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
in 50 years, I bet CROX is out of business due to changing trend or lead found in the shoes.

The buzz on the Street sez CROX has their R&D teams working on Jetson cars and cryogenic cylinders--I wouldn't count them out yet.

Purchase now and lock away for 50 years.

.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Nov 26):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,035.28/+1.76%

SPY/$1,943.40/-2.83%

JOE/$1,710.46/-14.48%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

WARNING: Kids, don't try this at home!!!


Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 3):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,068.66/+3.43%

SPY/$2,010.31/+0.52%

JOE/$1,847.29/-7.64%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
 
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