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robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
That is absolutely the WORST piece of investment advice EVER. 50 Years? Do you understand JOES business model. They don't sell widgets or services. They have a limited inventory of land. In 50 years, JOE will be out of business. If successful, all land will be sold and remaining cash will be paid out to shareholders (with a terrible return after considering ongoing operating costs, corporate income taxes and personal taxes on the dividend to shareholders upon dissolution) or they will have gone bankrupt long before due to inability to cover operating costs.

At least CROX, INTEL, etc make products and do not have a finite supply of inventory from which to produce revenues and profits.

50 years-you lost that bet the minute you made it.

So you think CROX or INTEL have more longevity and lasting ability to innovate, than a company that is a Land Trust? Thanks for your opinions though, appreciate that you think its a slam dunk that Intel will not be usurped or surpassed, yet Real Estate in Florida to hold for the next 50 years is a guaranteed loser now??? Dude where were you in 2005?
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Sure.

balance sheet looks reasonably healthy, BUT a good chunk of the cash was generated from tax refunds over the past couple of years. Outside these refunds, they are BLEEDING cash. At current burn rate, they will be out of cash in a couple of years with little capacity to borrow due to negative ebitda.

Pull out your excel spreadsheets and do a DCF analysis like I did. Assume they sell all 577,000 acres at 20k acres per year for the next 29 years (only sold about 1k this year). Assume a 10k per acre sales price (way too high, given that the bulk sales have been going in the range of 2-4k recently), 50% ebitda margin (again way too high historically), 39% tax rate, and a 10% discount rate. With these aggressive assumptions, the business isn't even worth $10 per share.

Was that enough detail, or do you need more?

Dude, you don't use DCF's on unpredictable, cyclical businesses. second, a 10% discount rate is laughable. Third, Einhorn had a price target of $20 when the stock was much higher, and recently updated that to low teens, so he could cover his short more profitability. Fourth, Einhorn's next 13-F report will show he coverd a bunch, if not all of his bet over the last 4 weeks. Will your 13-F show something different? Did you get short recently?
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,772
Wow, JOE is up 8% in one week.
INTC up 1.6% in same week.

Am I reading that right? Surely it must be a flaw.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
Wow, JOE is up 8% in one week.
INTC up 1.6% in same week.

Am I reading that right? Surely it must be a flaw.

SJ..."you are starting to sound like people who looked at their home value every day. I thought it was supposed to be about time in the market, not timing the market."

:roll:

It's really not "up"...it's just less negative--not unusual for a stock that's getting jerked around by 2 huge hedge funds.

(And INTC did pay out their quarterly dividend on Wednesday too...)

.
 
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Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,772
Nice quote, but you said it was a game and you wanted to regularly monitor it, didn't you? JOE beat INTC for the week by more than 3 times, right?
 
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SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
Nice quote, but you said it was a game and you wanted to regularly monitor it, didn't you? JOE beat INTC for the week by more than 3 times, right?

Week-over-week if JOE "beat" anything, it was its own previous week's performance...it's still in 3rd place anyway you look at it.

If it makes you feel any better, I will actually write the statement "JOE beat INTC this week!!" when it happens--trust me on this. It very well might happen before the game is over.

.
 

Matt J

SWGB
May 9, 2007
22,419
2,604
SJ..."you are starting to sound like people who looked at their home value every day. I thought it was supposed to be about time in the market, not timing the market."

:roll:

It's really not "up"...it's just less negative--not unusual for a stock that's getting jerked around by 2 huge hedge funds.

(And INTC did pay out their quarterly dividend on Wednesday too...)

.

That's only true if you bought higher than the current price.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
That's only true if you bought higher than the current price.

It was "bought" higher than the current price--all were "bought" at the market close price on Nov 4, $2000 worth per stock:

INTC: $20.97 (Current share price: $21.69)
SPY: $122.26 (Current share price: $122.89)
JOE: $20.17 (Current share price: $18.63)


.
 
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incredible1

Beach Lover
May 7, 2007
233
30
I think it was Warren Buffett who suggested
If you use a product or service, and like it, and you can own a piece of it via direct ownership or on the market, buy it.

he also has the buy and hold philosophy.

a personal fav right now is logmein -- fighting it out with Citrix (gotomypc)

Logme in is suprior, faster and more mobile oriented.
LogMeIn Taunts Cisco and Citrix With Free Web Meeting App - NYTimes.com

How about that netflix since Jan last year, $50 to almost $200
wow.
 
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