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robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Einhorn = Vanity ---, not even his own work, for the most part on the JOE short idea here. one of his junior guys, who has been trained by the last decade that the glass is always half empty.

He has no idea what 30A is about... Berkowitz has done the work, and he can understand that somewhere outside of South Florida is desirable (perhaps because he is a full time south Florida resident??) ... he understands that it is the playground, retirement destination of choice of the confederacy plus texas, plus the lower midwest. Einhorn dismisses South Walton as a typical Yankee would b/c there are no Nathan hot dogs stands, no gang violence, no obnoxious people from Long Island hanging out comparing engagement ring sizes, and most of all very few obnoxious yankees. The yanks that appreciate South Walton, are wisely keeping it a secret so far, outside of Berko.

Vanity...

Einhorn smart, and vain. Look out, I think Ackman, Paulson and Buffet are about to join Berkowitz is figuring out that Einhorn's work on JOE was very very shoddy, and surprisingly negative for a company with such a balance sheet. Einhorn has forgotten the number one rule of shorting, you should have a catalyst, b/c time works against you, and this is especially the case with JOE.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
:popcorn:

I was just settling down to a nice pumpkin spice latte, and was wondering if my updated brokerage statement, about my hypothetical $2000 investments would be forthcoming.

Thanks

B. Berkowitz
 

homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
Dude, you don't use DCF's on unpredictable, cyclical businesses. second, a 10% discount rate is laughable. Third, Einhorn had a price target of $20 when the stock was much higher, and recently updated that to low teens, so he could cover his short more profitability. Fourth, Einhorn's next 13-F report will show he coverd a bunch, if not all of his bet over the last 4 weeks. Will your 13-F show something different? Did you get short recently?


Yo, dude, please enlighten us on how you would value the company. And, dude, you are probably right, a 10% discount rate is laughably LOW for the risk associated with this company. The company has little true long term value due to the fact that most of its holdings are inland swampy land.

Did not short, don't like betting for a company to fail.

Looking forward to hearing your analysis of how to value the company.
 

homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
So you think CROX or INTEL have more longevity and lasting ability to innovate, than a company that is a Land Trust? Thanks for your opinions though, appreciate that you think its a slam dunk that Intel will not be usurped or surpassed, yet Real Estate in Florida to hold for the next 50 years is a guaranteed loser now??? Dude where were you in 2005?

Crox, no. Intel, yes. But, at least both actually make things. Joe has land, lots of worthless land and some with value. Net, net--company won't be making any money in the short or long term. They were a one hit, real estate bubble wonder.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Crox, no. Intel, yes. But, at least both actually make things. Joe has land, lots of worthless land and some with value. Net, net--company won't be making any money in the short or long term. They were a one hit, real estate bubble wonder.

So you're shorting hard assets? Shorting them now? After the 80% off sale? Good luck with that sir?
 

homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
Dude. When did I say I was shorting anything??

Again, what method would you use to value JOE? Also, what is it you believe JOE will be doing in 50 years?
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Dude. When did I say I was shorting anything??

Again, what method would you use to value JOE? Also, what is it you believe JOE will be doing in 50 years?

well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.

P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE
 
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robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%

SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%

JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back. :wave:

Since SHELLY is delayed getting back, here is an unoffical tally based on the open of markets today. Interesting turnaround. God speed Shelly. RESULTS UNOFFICIAL

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,028.61/ +1.42%
SPY/$2,044.65/ +2.23
JOE/$2,117/ +5.88%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
 
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homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.

P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE

So, pre 2006, when JOE had lots more acreage, real estate values were sky high, revenues approaching $1 BILLION and net income exceeding $100 MILLION, you said short. At the time, the company was valued at roughly 5-6 times revenue and 25-30 times EBITDA.


Now, with less acreage, much lower real estate values, revenues of less than $100 million and annual losses of $50 to $70 million, you are saying buy and hold for 50 years?? At a current valuation of roughly $2 billion, the company is trading at 20 TIMES REVENUE.

Or, to put it another way. What did you think the enterprise value of JOE was when the company had almonst $1 BILLION in revenue and you said short? And, now, with less than $100 million in revenue and continuing losses, what is your current thought on the enterprise value of JOE and you say buy? (Really looking forward to this answer).

Why the change of heart? Why did you feel JOE was so overvalued pre 2006 when real estate was raging and JOE had lots more raw land?? Now, with fewer assets, lower real estate asset values and a HUGE valuation premium, you say buy and hold??

The company now has about 10% of the revenue it had in 2005 and JOE is BLEEDING cash (excluding tax refunds) versus generating tons of FCF in 2005, yet the stock price is still trading at about 33% of the average price in the 2005-2006 period.

HMM???
 
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homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.

P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE


They won't be able to cover operating costs for many, many years. How in the world will they ever pay a dividend or have $ to reinvest in other assets. JOE didn't pay a dividend even during the real esate bubble days.

JOE won't be around in 5 years much less 50.


Still would like to get a brief glimpse into the valuation methodology you used to determine JOE is a great buy at current prices and why given the long time (ie:never) it will take to generate a profit that there is any room for growth (ie: to even keep pace with inflation) in the current stock price.
 
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