homeboy, I have seen this video a couple weeks ago. I thought it was hilarious too.
Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.
You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.
Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.
But that mega casino on Joe land is going to change all of that.
I don't agree with your characterization of Fairholm (Berkowitz) as some possessed activist hedge fund, hell bent on creating short term shareholder value (ala Wall Street 1). Berkowitz and Fairholm think South Walton is valuable. David Einhorn, has relied on a junior analyst, who tells him that South Walton is worthless, because it is not Miami. Berkowitz lives in South Florida, and can see the charm and value in Pandhandle Florida. He is long only. He is patient. He has the best track record of any fund manager in the last 20 years. He does hard work before making investments, and has a deep value bent. Einhorn does hard work too... but is prone to being more alarmist, short term oriented, and more mistake prone. Afterall, Einhorn runs a hedge fund, whereas Berkowitz runs a long only investment fund. Einhorn might like JOE one minute, and hate it the next, depending on a technical indicator or a 'hot tip'.
Einhorn is prone to vanity from my experience as well, so since Berko's work agrees with my own work on JOE, I'm inclined to side with Berkowitz, b/c I also feel that New York centric hedge fund managers don't have a good feel or understanding about South Walton, and can't even understand why anyone would want to have a 2nd home in SoWal -
But JOE is out of the good stuff to sell in SoWal.
Plus JOE owns thousands of lots NOT in SoWal-Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Port St Joe.
Going back to 1992, JOE loses to the S&P 500
St. Joe Company (The) Common St Stock Chart | JOE Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance
... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?
The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.
homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.
We are now quickly approaching where I got on this train. Decisions, decisions.