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wrobert

Beach Fanatic
Nov 21, 2007
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DeFuniak Springs
www.defuniaksprings.com
Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.

You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.

Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.


But that mega casino on Joe land is going to change all of that.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
But that mega casino on Joe land is going to change all of that.

Its an asset play. You don't do a discounted cash flow on an asset play, that is cyclical. You buy cyclical companies when people, like you, think they're expensive, based on an earnings or revenue multiple, and sell them counterlogically, when they appear cheap on those same metrics. Thats hard to get because it doesn't make sense to many at first, but it's cyclical company 101... I can assure you that once this lesson is learned it will never be forgotten. Mining companies were expensive as hell, on an earnings multiple basis, back a decade ago. That would have been the time to buy. When they now start talking about Freeport McMoran, or Teck Cominco (TCK) or Newmont, Barrick or Goldcorp as "cheap" on an earnings multiple basis soon, it will be time to run, it may be already.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
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JOE tacked on another 10 % or so this week alone... but we'll await the official results, they might be coming out soon.
 

beachFool

Beach Fanatic
May 6, 2007
938
442
I don't agree with your characterization of Fairholm (Berkowitz) as some possessed activist hedge fund, hell bent on creating short term shareholder value (ala Wall Street 1). Berkowitz and Fairholm think South Walton is valuable. David Einhorn, has relied on a junior analyst, who tells him that South Walton is worthless, because it is not Miami. Berkowitz lives in South Florida, and can see the charm and value in Pandhandle Florida. He is long only. He is patient. He has the best track record of any fund manager in the last 20 years. He does hard work before making investments, and has a deep value bent. Einhorn does hard work too... but is prone to being more alarmist, short term oriented, and more mistake prone. Afterall, Einhorn runs a hedge fund, whereas Berkowitz runs a long only investment fund. Einhorn might like JOE one minute, and hate it the next, depending on a technical indicator or a 'hot tip'.

Einhorn is prone to vanity from my experience as well, so since Berko's work agrees with my own work on JOE, I'm inclined to side with Berkowitz, b/c I also feel that New York centric hedge fund managers don't have a good feel or understanding about South Walton, and can't even understand why anyone would want to have a 2nd home in SoWal -

But JOE is out of the good stuff to sell in SoWal.

Plus JOE owns thousands of lots NOT in SoWal-Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Port St Joe.

Going back to 1992, JOE loses to the S&P 500

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
 
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robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
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But JOE is out of the good stuff to sell in SoWal.

Plus JOE owns thousands of lots NOT in SoWal-Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Port St Joe.

Going back to 1992, JOE loses to the S&P 500

St. Joe Company (The) Common St Stock Chart | JOE Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance

interesting historical observations buzz. what do you think on a go forward basis though? Are they really out of the good stuff? Bears on JOE are valuing their land at around 3 or 4K per acre. If there are any remaining acres around Watercolor, or Watersound, where there are about 6 lots per acre, I'd like to buy an acre for 100K, if I could - that would represent 5 or 6 lots at 17-20K a pop. It also represents acreage at THAT low price, that is about 3300% higher than the bearish analyst from New York City puts on the "redneck riviera". I think it is has been a serious mistake for Einhorn, but I'm guessing he's changed his mind already, although I sincerely hope he lets his ego get in the way, and doubles down. Anything you like here Buzz?
Did I mention I also like Regions FInancial at this point.
 
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robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?

The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.
 

wrobert

Beach Fanatic
Nov 21, 2007
4,134
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DeFuniak Springs
www.defuniaksprings.com
homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.


We are now quickly approaching where I got on this train. Decisions, decisions.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
We are now quickly approaching where I got on this train. Decisions, decisions.

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.
 

beachFool

Beach Fanatic
May 6, 2007
938
442
St. Joe Shares Popped: What You Need to Know (BLK, JOE)

"Now what: With seriously high-caliber investors on both sides of the scuffle, it's tough to decide whom to support. Thankfully, I'm more than happy to watch this one play out from the sidelines. Now that Fairholme no longer has the standstill agreement blocking it, it seems very possible that the fund could look for ways to take St. Joe private so that it can tend to its business without the pressure of the public markets."

I could see JOE being taken private - over 40% is owned by Fairholme and Blackrock.
 
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