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robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
JOE won't be around in 5 years much less 50.


.

... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?

The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.
 

homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?

The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.

Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.

You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.

Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.

You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.

Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.


Homeboy, most of my valuation work, decidedly non discounted cash flow oriented, was done, after wathing the following video, which I imaged as Alys Beach Circa 2060... I particulary like the accordian ditty, and I think it is a better method for picking stocks than yours, which seems to be: buy cyclical companies when they appear cheap, and short them when their revenue mutliples appear expense -

watch the video, smoke a bowl, think about what I just typed with regard to cyclical companies. cheers.

When you watch the video, imagine you're pausing at the Calizza pool (which is featured mid way in the video) and just imagine how you might be wrong in the future.


YouTube - Edward Maya & Vika Jigulina - Stereo Love (OFFICIAL VIDEO)
 
Last edited:

homeboy

Beach Lover
Jan 2, 2010
67
7
Homeboy, most of my valuation work, decidedly non discounted cash flow oriented, was done, after wathing the following video, which I imaged as Alys Beach Circa 2060... I particulary like the accordian ditty, and I think it is a better method for picking stocks than yours, which seems to be: buy cyclical companies when they appear cheap, and short them when their revenue mutliples appear expense -

watch the video, smoke a bowl, think about what I just typed with regard to cyclical companies. cheers.

When you watch the video, imagine you're pausing at the Calizza pool (which is featured mid way in the video) and just imagine how you might be wrong in the future.


YouTube - Edward Maya & Vika Jigulina - Stereo Love (OFFICIAL VIDEO)


In other words---you don't have a reasonable answer to the questions.

Back to the post that started this thread--recommending a stock buy without any basis for the recommendation.

Nuff said.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
Happy New Years My Friends and Foes!

My first order of business for Smiling Joe:

JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL

Thanks to RD for posting the updates in my absence...here is the latest results of the fantasy portfolio:
_____________________________________________________
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 30):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

JOE/$2,166.58/+8.33%

SPY/$2057.09/+2.85%

INTC/$2005.72/+0.29%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
______________________________________________________

With that out of the way...what a couple of weeks it's been for me!!

First, I've personally survived "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Sequel!" both coming and going through Europe--Oy Vey! We were better off than most, thanks to the hospitality of friends and acquaintances abroad who put us up when we got stuck.

Once we thought we were in the clear--it was "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Three-quel!!" here in the states...more snow & ice in the Northeast!

Then, come to find out I missed the "Mother of All Squeeze Plays" and JOE selling their soul to the devil by bringing Berkowitz and Fernandez on to the board of directors!

But, what I find most disturbing, is that our area has now become Fairholmes' Biyatch, :shock: and anyone who knows anything about this type of (in Fairholmes case) "non-Hedge Fund," they're all for wringing out every single, bloody dollar they can get to gain profit for themselves and their shareholders...good news for JOE stockholders(?) but discomforting as to the future direction of this area.

On well--for Auld Lang Syne, ya'll....on with the game and 2011!

Shel.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Happy New Years My Friends and Foes!

My first order of business for Smiling Joe:

JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL

Thanks to RD for posting the updates in my absence...here is the latest results of the fantasy portfolio:
_____________________________________________________
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 30):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

JOE/$2,166.58/+8.33%

SPY/$2057.09/+2.85%

INTC/$2005.72/+0.29%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
______________________________________________________

With that out of the way...what a couple of weeks it's been for me!!

First, I've personally survived "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Sequel!" both coming and going through Europe--Oy Vey! We were better off than most, thanks to the hospitality of friends and acquaintances abroad who put us up when we got stuck.

Once we thought we were in the clear--it was "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Three-quel!!" here in the states...more snow & ice in the Northeast!

Then, come to find out I missed the "Mother of All Squeeze Plays" and JOE selling their soul to the devil by bringing Berkowitz and Fernandez on to the board of directors!

But, what I find most disturbing, is that our area has now become Fairholmes' Biyatch, :shock: and anyone who knows anything about this type of (in Fairholmes case) "non-Hedge Fund," they're all for wringing out every single, bloody dollar they can get to gain profit for themselves and their shareholders...good news for JOE stockholders(?) but discomforting as to the future direction of this area.

On well--for Auld Lang Syne, ya'll....on with the game and 2011!

Shel.

I don't agree with your characterization of Fairholm (Berkowitz) as some possessed activist hedge fund, hell bent on creating short term shareholder value (ala Wall Street 1). Berkowitz and Fairholm think South Walton is valuable. David Einhorn, has relied on a junior analyst, who tells him that South Walton is worthless, because it is not Miami. Berkowitz lives in South Florida, and can see the charm and value in Pandhandle Florida. He is long only. He is patient. He has the best track record of any fund manager in the last 20 years. He does hard work before making investments, and has a deep value bent. Einhorn does hard work too... but is prone to being more alarmist, short term oriented, and more mistake prone. Afterall, Einhorn runs a hedge fund, whereas Berkowitz runs a long only investment fund. Einhorn might like JOE one minute, and hate it the next, depending on a technical indicator or a 'hot tip'.

Einhorn is prone to vanity from my experience as well, so since Berko's work agrees with my own work on JOE, I'm inclined to side with Berkowitz, b/c I also feel that New York centric hedge fund managers don't have a good feel or understanding about South Walton, and can't even understand why anyone would want to have a 2nd home in SoWal -
 

Bernarde

Beach Crab
Jan 6, 2011
1
0
as the money market and the real estate are suffering allot due to recession do you really think this is the time to have that big investment . as per my opinion no . and i would love to know about yours ? plz share
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
That is absolutely the WORST piece of investment advice EVER. 50 Years? Do you understand JOES business model. They don't sell widgets or services. They have a limited inventory of land. In 50 years, JOE will be out of business. If successful, all land will be sold and remaining cash will be paid out to shareholders (with a terrible return after considering ongoing operating costs, corporate income taxes and personal taxes on the dividend to shareholders upon dissolution) or they will have gone bankrupt long before due to inability to cover operating costs.

At least CROX, INTEL, etc make products and do not have a finite supply of inventory from which to produce revenues and profits.

50 years-you lost that bet the minute you made it.

I actually would seriously doubt that Intel will be making chips for Personal Computers in 50 years, but I'm pretty sure people will still be taking vacations. Intel could become irrelevant actually within a few years, as others move into its turf a commoditizin PC chip business, and Intel misses the move to Tablets and Handsets. The PC is becoming less relevant, as storage and software is now in the "cloud", and a PC is increasingly becoming a shell with a screen and a keyboard, and a pipe to the "cloud." I won't be so irreverant however to say "you've lost that bet" the minute you made it, b/c Intel has strong cash flows, and is trading at what appears to be a cheap multiple vs. many other companies. That low multiple could be a buying opportunity, or it could simply mean that the market is correctly anticipating that earnings viability into the future are in question.

Thanks for playing, I'm sure I'll hear from you again if the S&P or Intel every start outperforming JOE, but that's probably unlikely. JOE was undervalued, and then someone of influence cried fire in the crowded theater back in November. The panic is over. Now the only people panicing, are those lemmings that followed Einhorn's junior analyst over the cliff,into determining that North Florida is useless, b/c he had no New Yorker friends who went there, or had heard of it.
 
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