I LOVE living here, my family and I invested in property in 2005 at the peak of the market - many people may find that really stupid - but all we knew and what we still know is that we loved living here and saw the potential. We invested certainly hoping we would not lose our shirts, but we were/still are committed to this area, believe that like many other businesses, RE has its cycles, have absolutely no idea when things will start to turn around but believe with absolute certainty that this little paradise we live in will continue to grow and prosper in the long run.
Excellent Chickpea. We do not live there but we are property owners and we feel the same way. We went in as investors but consider ourselves end users. As a native Floridian I have a strong belief that SoWal is very, very special (yes, even after all the development) and that there is a great deal of inherent value in the homes and land within walking distance to the beach. When you take a step back, consider the lack of developable land vs. conservation land, the elevations along almost all of 30-A, and of course the very special beaches and beautiful water, it is hard not to be impressed. Add in the height restrictions and the fact that most of the housing is newer and better suited to withstand storms -- all this makes SoWal extremely unique.
Because of this inherent value, my main concern with the prices in SoWal is not the large inventory, or the major pieces of property either going back to the bank or rumored to be. My concern, and maybe I am not seeing is correctly but I can't help but thinking this way, is more the national perspective -- ie, what is the going rate for homes in Hilton Head? Naples? Cape Cod? Catalina Island? If prices are declining in all these places because coastal real estate prices jumped too far way too fast, then it is hard to say where the bottom will be.
I keep going back to Shawn Tully's excellent 2002 piece in Fortune that declared the housing runup had to be over because any more growth was unsustainable. I also remember back in the mid 90s when 350K was the going rate for a very expensive executive home. My guess is we will level out nationally somewhere around 2001-2002 prices for desirable coastal areas. In SoWal, I don't think they will drop that far because the infrastructure and construction quality is much better than it was in 2001-2002. In other words prices at the time were cheap to begin with, and I don't see how they could get that cheap again.
Of course, it is just my opinion, and I don't have property for sale.