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raising taxes? 
"...(Hint: Rhymes with "Tinting Messes.")..."
But that would be inflationary.
As would the Fed cutting the discount rate.
But that would be inflationary.
As would the Fed cutting the discount rate.
Joe,
Thanks for the numbers. I am shopping for a gulf front condo as I will be part time and want minimum upkeep. And I do realize it is a different market than single family. The single family beachfront lots have come off the bubble but I don't see any signs of a fire sale. The condo market on the other hand is where the foreclosures seem to be popping up. I suspect because that is where it was easiest to speculate in the market.
Flyguy
Thanks for the numbers. I am shopping for a gulf front condo as I will be part time and want minimum upkeep. And I do realize it is a different market than single family. The single family beachfront lots have come off the bubble but I don't see any signs of a fire sale. The condo market on the other hand is where the foreclosures seem to be popping up. I suspect because that is where it was easiest to speculate in the market.
Flyguy
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TooFarTampa
SoWal Insider
I'm not a regular poster but I'm going to give you my position anyway. I have been an owner, investor, investulator, speculator, developer and land swinger in the Destin Area for the last 10 years. I have bought to flip, bought to develop, and bought for my own personal use. I currently have no holdings in the Destin area other than a home I just bought a month ago. I bought because it is my belief that regardless of if its a shortsale, a firesale, or just a extremely motivated seller. I believe that prices will not go too far below the cost to rebuild the exact home, putting a reasonable value on the lot.
Property is valued one of three ways:
1) Income method
2) Replacement cost method
3) Comparable sales or market value method
Throw # 3 out, forget about what it sold for 18 months ago or last month even, comp sale price can and ARE manipulated on every sale so that number is worthless. The quicker we all forget about those unjustifiable prices which were mostly based on the comp sale method with no concern for income or replacement cost, the better off and more healthy the entire market will be.
There will be more foreclosures in the next 24 months than ever before but trust me, there will be investors buying these as well and they will be buying based on replacement cost valuation method and the income valuation method.
Property is valued one of three ways:
1) Income method
2) Replacement cost method
3) Comparable sales or market value method
Throw # 3 out, forget about what it sold for 18 months ago or last month even, comp sale price can and ARE manipulated on every sale so that number is worthless. The quicker we all forget about those unjustifiable prices which were mostly based on the comp sale method with no concern for income or replacement cost, the better off and more healthy the entire market will be.
There will be more foreclosures in the next 24 months than ever before but trust me, there will be investors buying these as well and they will be buying based on replacement cost valuation method and the income valuation method.
printing messes? :funn:
And, just how much do you think a 40 X 80 piece of sand 1/2 mile from the beach is worth. Many of the sales occurring now value this land at $100k to $900k depending on the location in SoWal. If raw land prices continue to fall, then the cost valuation method will certainly follow suit for existing homes.
flyguy, some condo numbers for you follow.
These sales numbers are for condos, listed as Gulf Front, which sold in the area of SoWal, between Bay County and Sandestin. The sales data is from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors (ECAR), and doesn't include any units sold outside of ECAR. Also, the sales reflect new condos as well as resales.
2005
qty sold - 101
avg sold price - $1,563,680
2006
qty sold - 19
avg sold price - $1,076,499
2007
qty sold - 38
avg sold price - $1,109,986
prices and qty have increased in 2007 over 2006. You can see the dramatic drop in prices from 2004, for Gulf Front condos.
As I stated, the Gulf front units have been difficult to sell, especially after the storms of 2004, and the great number of storms predicted in 2005 and 2006. Add to that, the other reasons I mentioned in a previous post, and you will see that the Gulf Front units are not recovering as well as the other condos in the same area.
Below are sales for ALL CONDOS in that same stretch of SoWal, according to ECAR.
You will see that although the qty of sales is down in 2007, compared to 2006, but in that same time period, average prices of units sold have increased by 26%. Compare that to the Gulf Front Units increasing in price in that period, only 3%. (an increase of 3% isn't bad, considering we have been in a "bubble bursting" period, but the non-Gulf Front units have outperformed in that period.) That should be good news to you, since you are looking to buy a Gulf Front unit.
All condos, including Gulf front, located in the same area of SoWal (not including Sandestin):
2005
qty of sales - 358
Avg sales price - $929,362
2006
qty of sales - 151
Avg sales price - $635,055
2007
qty of sales - 136
Avg sales price - $804,636
Remember that part you mentioned about wanting to buy on the upswing? Looking at the annual averages for sale prices of Gulf Front Condos, we are currently 29% off the record highs of 2005, and for 2007, we are up 3% over 2006. Those sales numbers reflect a slight upswing in the Gulf Front Condo Market. I've shown examples of other more substantial upswings in the market for other properties. My question to you as a buyer is, how much of an upswing are you waiting to see, before you are ready to jump in? I hear many people who sound similar to you, in that they are waiting to see upswings, but I think they are really waiting to hear the bottom bell ring, telling them it's okay to buy now. I haven't hidden my thought that you will see more foreclosures in the next year, but that hasn't changed the fact that the average prices of properties selling has increased between 2006 to 2007. None of the buyers who say they are waiting to see the upswing, have identified a buy-in point, and I think they are buying more on gut instinct and emotions, so I'm curious to learn your perspective. Thanks for sharing.
These sales numbers are for condos, listed as Gulf Front, which sold in the area of SoWal, between Bay County and Sandestin. The sales data is from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors (ECAR), and doesn't include any units sold outside of ECAR. Also, the sales reflect new condos as well as resales.
2005
qty sold - 101
avg sold price - $1,563,680
2006
qty sold - 19
avg sold price - $1,076,499
2007
qty sold - 38
avg sold price - $1,109,986
prices and qty have increased in 2007 over 2006. You can see the dramatic drop in prices from 2004, for Gulf Front condos.
As I stated, the Gulf front units have been difficult to sell, especially after the storms of 2004, and the great number of storms predicted in 2005 and 2006. Add to that, the other reasons I mentioned in a previous post, and you will see that the Gulf Front units are not recovering as well as the other condos in the same area.
Below are sales for ALL CONDOS in that same stretch of SoWal, according to ECAR.
You will see that although the qty of sales is down in 2007, compared to 2006, but in that same time period, average prices of units sold have increased by 26%. Compare that to the Gulf Front Units increasing in price in that period, only 3%. (an increase of 3% isn't bad, considering we have been in a "bubble bursting" period, but the non-Gulf Front units have outperformed in that period.) That should be good news to you, since you are looking to buy a Gulf Front unit.
All condos, including Gulf front, located in the same area of SoWal (not including Sandestin):
2005
qty of sales - 358
Avg sales price - $929,362
2006
qty of sales - 151
Avg sales price - $635,055
2007
qty of sales - 136
Avg sales price - $804,636
Remember that part you mentioned about wanting to buy on the upswing? Looking at the annual averages for sale prices of Gulf Front Condos, we are currently 29% off the record highs of 2005, and for 2007, we are up 3% over 2006. Those sales numbers reflect a slight upswing in the Gulf Front Condo Market. I've shown examples of other more substantial upswings in the market for other properties. My question to you as a buyer is, how much of an upswing are you waiting to see, before you are ready to jump in? I hear many people who sound similar to you, in that they are waiting to see upswings, but I think they are really waiting to hear the bottom bell ring, telling them it's okay to buy now. I haven't hidden my thought that you will see more foreclosures in the next year, but that hasn't changed the fact that the average prices of properties selling has increased between 2006 to 2007. None of the buyers who say they are waiting to see the upswing, have identified a buy-in point, and I think they are buying more on gut instinct and emotions, so I'm curious to learn your perspective. Thanks for sharing.
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Raw land prices have CRASHED and construction costs are falling too. It is cheaper to build than to buy a resale in many cases today which will put further pressure on prices. Foreclosure prices today could very easily be average prices in the next year or so.