We can all relax-I just heard Dawn Brownon the radio and she feels confident it will continue pretty much on its current route into Texico.
From your mouth to God's ear!
Tropical Deppression 4
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From your mouth to God's ear!
...that is so sad.
So, where is this monster going now. I am afraid to look. A well meaning friend called me to keep my eyes on it because of my daddy in Houston. I know y'all will send sarafunn back if it is time. ;-)
I don't think Dean will make landfall in Mexico after passing Yucatan. Dean appears to be going to the northern edge of the forecast models making Dean a Texas storm. Of course the certainty of this is quite small at this point. When it gets close to Yucatan everybody will have a better idea of Dean's final destination or close proximity that is.
Tropicwatch
I'm certainly hoping that Hurr. Dean doesn't follow the CLP5 track, since currently, it is aiming at P'cola.
I'm certainly hoping that Hurr. Dean doesn't follow the CLP5 track, since currently, it is aiming at P'cola.
Watch the GFDL which is put out by MIT, that one has had the best track record. I don't know why the 1800 run has not come out yet.
My understanding, from reading Dr Jeff Masters' blogs, is that some of the models take much longer to run. I've read a bit about some of the various models' methods of calculation, but I have not seen the CPL5 before. Do you know how it is calculated?
I just found this little scientific description of why some models are late:
"Numerous objective forecast aids (guidance models) are available to help the NHC Hurricane Specialists in the preparation of their official track and intensity forecasts. Guidance models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether or not they are available to the Hurricane Specialist during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC (12Z) forecast cycle, which begins with the 12Z synoptic time and ends with the release of the official forecast at 15Z. The 12Z run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 16Z, or about an hour after the forecast is released - thus the 12Z GFS would be considered a late model since it could not be used to prepare the 12Z official forecast.
Multi-layer dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique can be used to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (06Z) run of the GFS would be adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 12Z) would exactly match the observed 12Z position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model for the 12Z forecast cycle that is based on the most current available guidance. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, for historical reasons, as interpolated models."
I see that the CPL5 model has historically been way off in terms of forecast area in miles, on average, being the least accurate of the models, with only three exceptions in particular years around the mid-1990's.
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CLP5: CLIPER5 (Climatology and Persistence model)-Statistical baseline
Found the information at http://www.ofcm.gov/p36-isrtc/pdf/10_appendices.pdf has great info pertaining to various models and more.
Found the information at http://www.ofcm.gov/p36-isrtc/pdf/10_appendices.pdf has great info pertaining to various models and more.
Alright take it from a surfer, here is the best website radar picture in town. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
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Opps I forgot the best swell model on the net. Funny part is they are out of England.http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
I think you reposted the same link, rather than the swell link. :roll:
Opps! Let's try this again http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/