Tropical Storm Fay

For those who'd like to learn more about the hurricane models, NHC has a detailed writeup at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

It's way more technical than Jeff Masters' summary on Wunderground, but there is some interesting stuff that will help you compare the various model plots.

i'm showing my ignorance here...but hey, we're all family right? Why is it called "Invest" 94?

Because it's an area NHC is "Invest"igating for possible development.

And the numbers are always Ninety-something, don't ask me why. So there can be multiple 92s in a given hurricane season, but only one 92 at at time.

Tallahassee NWS:

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODELS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE GUIDANCE TAKES FAY
ON YET ANOTHER LEG ACROSS LAND...THIS TIME NORTH FL. A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKES THE
CENTER OF FAY INTO APALACHEE BAY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 15 UTC NHC TRACK...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
IT IS POSSIBLE FAY COULD STRENGTHEN BACK INTO A TROPICAL STORM
(ASSUMING IT WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTH FL) FRIDAY IF IT
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OUT OVER THE GULF...BUT WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO STRENGTHEN MUCH. WE STILL THINK THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH WE DO NEED THE
RAIN. THE FOLLOWING ARE A FEW FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

TALLAHASSEE FL.......6 TO 8 INCHES
DOTHAN AL............3 TO 5 INCHES
ALBANY GA............2 TO 4 INCHES
VALDOSTA GA..........3 TO 5 INCHES
CROSS CITY FL........8 TO 11 INCHES
PANAMA CITY FL.......6 TO 8 INCHES

OF COURSE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
THE STRUCTURE OF CHANGES. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF FAY MAINTAINS A HEALTHY WIND CORE.

Other areas, like the Pacific Ocean, use different Invest #s, so I'm guessing that the regions of the world are assigned unique numbers.

Looks like I need to dig out the umbrellas, raincoats, boots, buckets- what else do we need for a lot of rain?

Looks like I need to dig out the umbrellas, raincoats, boots, buckets- what else do we need for a lot of rain?

I would agree with this, and you should always have a couple of tarps ready in case you spring a leak from a falling tree branch. As of this morning's guesstimate, it looks like you are getting a visitor on Sat. night.

Jdarg, umbrellas are useless, and dangerous, with 40mph wind.

Tarps -- I have a few, but they always manage to get holes in them. Small diameter cord is also needed to help hold said tarps in place, and duct tape is always good to have on hand.

BeachSi02, any more southern projection path from your guys, yet? I see NOAA has brought their projection path more to the south, right over SoWal. If that storm gets over water in the big bend, the entire Panhandle could be in for a real doozie.

Jdarg, swimsuits are a must for mucho rain, as are warm towels. Please remember that if you go out during or AFTER the storm, take close inspection of your surroundings. Most people get injured after the storms, because they don't take notice of potential safety hazards, such as downed power lines, dangling limbs, those hard green pine cones, etc. Always take FULL notice of your surroundings before venturing out. Bike helmets, for venturing into a yard with those big green pinecones, are a must!

Jdarg, swimsuits are a must for mucho rain, as are warm towels. Please remember that if you go out during or AFTER the storm, take close inspection of your surroundings. Most people get injured after the storms, because they don't take notice of potential safety hazards, such as downed power lines, dangling limbs, those hard green pine cones, etc. Always take FULL notice of your surroundings before venturing out. Bike helmets, for venturing into a yard with those big green pinecones, are a must!

There must be a story about big green pinecones?

I am more concerned that our yard will look and sound like that movie filmed at Eden- 'Frogs". Last November, when we had 15 inches in the rain gauge, and last February, when we had 11 or 12 inches, the whole neighborhood was Frogtown. The ground was literally moving. The noise was deafening!

Jdarg, swimsuits are a must for mucho rain, as are warm towels. Please remember that if you go out during or AFTER the storm, take close inspection of your surroundings. Most people get injured after the storms, because they don't take notice of potential safety hazards, such as downed power lines, dangling limbs, those hard green pine cones, etc. Always take FULL notice of your surroundings before venturing out. Bike helmets, for venturing into a yard with those big green pinecones, are a must!

Jdarg all this sounds like alot of trouble and that helmet won't do anything for your reputation, not to mention style. Pack up and come home, bring everyone with you I have room.

BeachSi02, any more southern projection path from your guys, yet? I see NOAA has brought their projection path more to the south, right over SoWal. If that storm gets over water in the big bend, the entire Panhandle could be in for a real doozie.

As of early this morning, it was Sowal too but no offshore strengthening. It had 20-25mph sustained winds starting Sat afternoon/evening. A new update will be up in a few hours. I'll make sure and post.

I have to go BACK to Publix because the kids went through all of the milk and bread that I bought for the original storm track!!!!

I do have out all of my gear from Alaska....Xtra Tuff Boots (the kind seen on deadliest catch). Awesome impermeable raincoat from the Elfin Cove Lodge, waterproof Alaska Pale Ale ball cap.... I think I need a case of Alaska Pale Ale and I'll be set.

My Alaska Ale hat isn't waterproof, but should help protect my noggin in case my squirrels rebel like Sj's and start flinging the nuts! :rofl:

Florida squirrels sound scary. Our squirrels are non-commando up here. It seems like you all have Al Qaida squirrels.

I don't trust any of them, calm or aggressive, as they are a rat with a fluffy tail.

Just heard it was going to be directed straight to Destin

OH SAY ITS NOT SO



Arrrgggggggggg:angry:

Don't worry baby. It's a tropical storm, not a hurricane. We'll have a bit of rain and light winds but I haven't seen any predictions that it was gonna even become a Cat 1. We might have fewer beach days for visitors. On the east end our elevations are so high, I'd be surprised if we had any significant flooding. I'm thankful that it's not a bad one

Also, a lot of the area is relatively sandy and drains pretty well in most places outside the usual suspects. (*cough* Driftwood *cough*) When we got 30 inches of rain in 48 hours a couple years back from a springtime stalled front, there really wasn't much in terms of long term damage or lasting effects.

what else do we need for a lot of rain?

MELBOURNE, Fla. -- Homeowners in a Tropical Storm Fay-flooded community were being warned of an alligator swimming in their streets and near homes as record-breaking rain continued to fall Thursday.
http://www.local6.com/weather/17244086/detail.html

Something to shoot the gators? ;-)

The SoWallers with fancy cameras need to record the "day before the storm"- it is absolutely beautiful at the beach today. Crystal clear, flat water, beautiful blues and greens, and perfect and refreshing swimming. I have to say the Gulf today is prettier than it has been all season!

Ahhh- what an awesome way to start a day.

What are your plans for this upcoming rainy weekend???? Especially with energetic kids! and 6 dogs......................I need ideas!!!

IMO tropical storms are God's way of telling me to finally clean the $%(#(@ house!

What are your plans for this upcoming rainy weekend???? Especially with energetic kids! and 6 dogs......................I need ideas!!!

Crud- I forgot about the dogs. I guess they will need dog raincoats- they won't want to go outside! I'm geting out a big stack of beach towels for that wet dog situation that is coming up!

Hot off the press, they are still saying direct hit of sowal with 25-30mph sustained winds pretty much all day on Saturday, starting early am. Looks like everyone else's guesstimate, windy and rainy.

I can handle wind and rain, but after SJ's post I'm more worried about these guys......