Tropical Storm Fay

[TreeFrog]

8PM EDT model runs are now posted up at www.wunderground.com/tropical. Note that SJ's post #105 appears to have updated to the current runs.

The tracks are still widely spread, but all of them have shifted eastward. The 11 PM EDT forecast from the NHC is still straight up the west coast of the peninsula. They continue to expect the turn northward to happen more aggressively than NOGAPS predicts.

Although we all wish for something more definitive, it looks like we've got to wait to late tomorrow for the models to begin to converge. At that time, Fay should be clear of Cuba and the Hurricane Hunters will have made a pass through, which in turn will reflect in the 8 PM EDT model runs. If we're lucky, they'll get something in time for the 2 PM runs, which typically show up online around 4 PM our time.

 

[TooFarTampa]

Yeah, and

my generator functionality test may have moved the storm west for now...sorry

Revenge for Charley? :angry:

 

[Bobby J]

This one is starting to get me thinking. I have to admit, pretty excited about getting some surf but I am not liking the path this one seems to be taking.

Still early but a lot of warm water ahead for this storm!

 

[TooFarTampa]

This one is starting to get me thinking. I have to admit, pretty excited about getting some surf but I am not liking the path this one seems to be taking.

Still early but a lot of warm water ahead for this storm!

No yapping about the surf! It's bad karma!

 

[surfdog]

where faye travels across cuba is the bottom line to the effect of the week ahead of us. let us all remember,..storms are like funerals,..they tend to bring out the best and worst in people,...be a good neighbor and shine on....

 

[30A Skunkape]

Looks like they are predicting a strike south of Tampa now.

 

[30ashopper]

I'm beginning to wonder if this little guy will even make it back to hurricane status. That last big jog to the north seems to have caught all the models by surprise. Any more of that and it'll be making landfall over the keys as a tropical storm.

 

[BeachSiO2]

From what I am reading, it is still south of Tampa and at most will be a minimal cat 1 at landfall.

 

[NotDeadYet]

Early on, Dr Masters of Weather Underground nicknamed Fay "The Joker." Seems he was right - this one is a real forecasting nightmare. :shock:
I see they have found 60mph winds this morning. Landfall sooner rather than later would be the best case. I hope you are right, BeachSiO2.

 

[BeachSiO2]

Early on, Dr Masters of Weather Underground nicknamed Fay "The Joker." Seems he was right - this one is a real forecasting nightmare. :shock:
I see they have found 60mph winds this morning. Landfall sooner rather than later would be the best case. I hope you are right, BeachSiO2.

My peeps have been saying the same thing since late Friday/early Saturday and they are usually pretty good. I'll make sure and post if they change anything.