Time to buy JOE

[robertsondavies]

St. Joe Shares Popped: What You Need to Know (BLK, JOE)

"Now what: With seriously high-caliber investors on both sides of the scuffle, it's tough to decide whom to support. Thankfully, I'm more than happy to watch this one play out from the sidelines. Now that Fairholme no longer has the standstill agreement blocking it, it seems very possible that the fund could look for ways to take St. Joe private so that it can tend to its business without the pressure of the public markets."

I could see JOE being taken private - over 40% is owned by Fairholme and Blackrock.

me too. but i'm not a great prognosticator. Shelly is on the other side of this one ;-)

 

[beachFool]

me too. but i'm not a great prognosticator. Shelly is on the other side of this one ;-)

My crystal ball is in the shop for repairs.

 

[homeboy]

interesting historical observations buzz. what do you think on a go forward basis though? Are they really out of the good stuff? Bears on JOE are valuing their land at around 3 or 4K per acre. If there are any remaining acres around Watercolor, or Watersound, where there are about 6 lots per acre, I'd like to buy an acre for 100K, if I could - that would represent 5 or 6 lots at 17-20K a pop. It also represents acreage at THAT low price, that is about 3300% higher than the bearish analyst from New York City puts on the "redneck riviera". I think it is has been a serious mistake for Einhorn, but I'm guessing he's changed his mind already, although I sincerely hope he lets his ego get in the way, and doubles down. Anything you like here Buzz?
Did I mention I also like Regions FInancial at this point.

Still haven't gotten your valuation methodology. Sounds to me like you bought in way too high and are hoping upon all hope that the stock makes an unlikely, short term return to where you bought in so you can dump and run.

In terms of your analysis above, you completely forgot to take into consideration the huge amount of infrastructure cost to develop the land. If you bought some of that acreage at $100k per acre you would likely lose money after putting in the necessary infrastructure to develop the land BEFORE you could actually sell lots.

Remember, most of JOEs land is swamp or near swamp land. There are hundreds of thousands of similar swamp land along the coast of Ms, La, Al, and other areas of Fl south of Walton County. It will be a long, long, long time, if ever, before any of this land will have any appreciable value. The limited number of near ocean acreage has some value but the rest of it is only worth the value of the timber. The can't give away already developed lots in very near ocean locations such as The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Cypress Breeze, etc. What makes you think the swamp land much farther from the beach will sell for more than the lots in these near ocean developments.

Regarding the short term run up--the greater fool and short term trading theories are at work here. The Company is not worth any more than $1 billion, if that. And, I am talking about REAL underlying value--in other words, the how much investors will ULTIMATELY get in cash from there investments, not what traders buy and sell at day to day based on the latest way in which the wind blows.

Please post your valuation methodology that supports your ultimate valuation of the company. Until that time, your words are not credible. They are the words of a day trader hoping for a quick fix.

Good luck if you are truly buying and holding for 50 years which is the advice you gave everyone (which I seriously doubt).

 

[homeboy]

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

The stock has been up and down between 15 and 30 per share for the past 2.5 years. Why does the current short term up tick bode very well for SoWal in 2011? The bulk of JOES holdings aren't even in Walton County.

The forecast for 2011 by many indicates a record number of foreclosures. Prices continue to decline in SoWal and will likely continue for quite some time, albeit at a much slower pace. Land prices are still inflated in the major 30A developments like Watersound, Watercolor, Rosemary, and especially Alys. Until the land prices stop falling, overall property values will continue to decline. Way, way too much inventory in the market for prices to stabilize over the relative short term.

 

[homeboy]

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.

I don't short. And, I would not touch JOE, period. A history of very poor management, losing money hand over fist.

I would like to know when you believe JOE will actually turn a profit again?? And, how will they begin turning a profit.

Buyout? Yep, there is always a greater fool.

 

[robertsondavies]

I don't short. and I never slice

And, I would not touch JOE, period. A history of very poor management, losing money hand over fist.

poor mgmt, losing money, sounds like an attractive short to you no?
.

do you work for Einhorn?

 

[robertsondavies]

The stock has been up and down between 15 and 30 per share for the past 2.5 years. Why does the current short term up tick bode very well for SoWal in 2011? The bulk of JOES holdings aren't even in Walton County.

The forecast for 2011 by many indicates a record number of foreclosures. Prices continue to decline in SoWal and will likely continue for quite some time, albeit at a much slower pace. wanna bet, that many will be wrong? Land prices are still inflated in the major 30A developments like Watersound, Watercolor, Rosemary, and especially Alys. Until the land prices stop falling, overall property values will continue to decline. Way, way too much inventory in the market for prices to stabilize over the relative short term...

.....

 

[homeboy]

do you work for Einhorn?

Still beating around the bush because you dont have answers to any of the questions?

 

[ASH]

Check the other thread I just posted about Joe.

 

[wrobert]

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

I have never been one to get in and out of a stock. More buy and hold for a few years, so I am thinking I am just going to put this behind me and hold on for the long haul. I gave up on gambling and starting buying stocks instead several years back and still feel that I am pretty much money ahead so far. Maybe my luck will hold. Now everyone switch to Sprint and go buy a new Ford for me.