Are we headed for an epic bear market?

[Capricious]

Jan 2009:


S&P 500 < 1,000
Dow < 9,000
Nasdaq < 1900

But how much "<"?
And is that a "bottom?"


PCB condo prices?
LOL





Capricious

"Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There'll be sun! "

(Annie)

 

[ASH]

Did you read what the CIA has on our Financial Balance and Rank?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

So, if I read this right, we would need to drain the accounts of three+ entire countries just to get us back in the good. yikes. :shock:

 

[AAbsolute]

So, if I read this right, we would need to drain the accounts of three+ entire countries just to get us back in the good. yikes. :shock:

The CIA has probably been wrong once or twice before about small matters like this, but it sure sounds about right to me. The perennial boom and masses of immigrants who come, take, and go. The perennial deficits. It just seems like it all fits.

 

[ClintClint]

I'm not too proud to say I'm takin a real spankin' in the stock market! I'm going to really cut back on the whiskey, weed, and hookers. Heck, one more day like today in the market and a hot bath and razor blades might be in order. Or, maybe a parttime job---any goddess on the board need a pool boy?

 

[traderx]

What's the chance the our government can peacefully merge or acquire another country? Maybe we can work our way out of this.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html

I have advocated the invasion of Cuba for weeks. We could corner the market on cigars and sell them to the rest of the world and easily erase our trade deficit. We can also build hundreds of world-class resorts and let the Europeans know they can go topless so they will show up.

Seriously, the largest component of the current account is our trade deficit. I don't see how we can turn that around soon. How much are factory workers paid in the third world? Fifty cents an hour? In Detroit, autoworkers get twenty bucks an hour. Most lower and midrange furniture manufacturers are now offshore in Asia.

So, anyway, if we cannot turn the current account around, we cannot turn the dollar around in a meaningful way. And with the magic of exchange rate economics, that gives us an advantage with our exports since our goods are now cheaper. The only question remaining is will the rest of the world buy our Malibus, tires and industrial equipment?

 

[goofer]

I'm not too proud to say I'm takin a real spankin' in the stock market! I'm going to really cut back on the whiskey, weed, and hookers. Heck, one more day like today in the market and a hot bath and razor blades might be in order. Or, maybe a parttime job---any goddess on the board need a pool boy?

Hang in there, Clint. Worst Worst Worst case is :

SPX 945 closed 1106

DJII 8400 closed 10365

Who knows , we may be there by Thursday !!!!!!

 

[dunefrog]

Do you guys see how much of this crisis is driven by psychology versus fundamentals? People are panicking. Nothing good ever comes of that.

The underlying assets (stocks and homes) are not worthless. The value of the homes will never drop to anywhere close to zero. The problem is that there is fear about the immediate future and everyone wants to hoard what they have rather than take a chance on buying anything. So the market value of the asset drops because the seller are desperate to sell but no one is keen on buying. This will eventually pass.

Remember right after 9-11 when everyone expected a terrorist attack on a regular basis. People were buying handguns and stocking up on canned goods. We were afraid and had no idea what to expect in the near future. We are in the same situation here.

I'm not saying there is no crisis. Far from it. I think we will probably experience a serious recession. If your personal balance sheet is debt heavy, you will have a hard time. If your company depends on leveraging debt on a daily basis to pay the bills, that company will have a hard time.

But if we figure out ways to stay productive, we can avoid the worst of it. Adapt to the new environment, learn from our mistakes, and on the other side of this we will all be better for it.

 

[goofer]

Do you guys see how much of this crisis is driven by psychology versus fundamentals? People are panicking. Nothing good ever comes of that.

The underlying assets (stocks and homes) are not worthless. The value of the homes will never drop to anywhere close to zero. The problem is that there is fear about the immediate future and everyone wants to hoard what they have rather than take a chance on buying anything. So the market value of the asset drops because the seller are desperate to sell but no one is keen on buying. This will eventually pass.

Remember right after 9-11 when everyone expected a terrorist attack on a regular basis. People were buying handguns and stocking up on canned goods. We were afraid and had no idea what to expect in the near future. We are in the same situation here.

I'm not saying there is no crisis. Far from it. I think we will probably experience a serious recession. If your personal balance sheet is debt heavy, you will have a hard time. If your company depends on leveraging debt on a daily basis to pay the bills, that company will have a hard time.

But if we figure out ways to stay productive, we can avoid the worst of it. Adapt to the new environment, learn from our mistakes, and on the other side of this we will all be better for it.

If you lived through the crash of 1987, which I did, this panic is mild in comparison. I remember Oct. 20, 1987, the day after the crash. They could not open many stocks. The specialists were quoting stocks down 50% Only after some "financial engineering" by the Fed, did the market stabalize. Things will return to normalcy and orderliness......it will take time and patience.

 

[30ashopper]

If you lived through the crash of 1987, which I did, this panic is mild in comparison. I remember Oct. 20, 1987, the day after the crash. They could not open many stocks. The specialists were quoting stocks down 50% Only after some "financial engineering" by the Fed, did the market stabalize. Things will return to normalcy and orderliness......it will take time and patience.

Huuuuge buying opportunity over the long run...

 

[TheSheep]

I'm not too proud to say I'm takin a real spankin' in the stock market! I'm going to really cut back on the whiskey, weed, and hookers. Heck, one more day like today in the market and a hot bath and razor blades might be in order. Or, maybe a parttime job---any goddess on the board need a pool boy?

Not one with 8 lots in Georgia.