Calling The Bottom

[fisher]

...at this point--mostly sellers.


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[Bob]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/06/in-escondido-bu.html here's the story

 

[Beachcoma]

Came in late on this thread, but congrats. to you FlyGuy for taking the plunge.

I have been watching the condo. market for a couple of years, and see that in general, prices are getting more realistic but still have some way to go IMO - particularly with our tanking economy, tighter credit, and other financial "shoes" still to be dropped. Lower selling prices are only a small part of the equation.

I think I have come to the conclusion that owning a home in SoWal would make more sense than a condo. Just looking at condos. from $300m to $700m I see condo. fees or assessments of anywhere from $500 to $1,000 a month. Yikes! $6,000 to $12,000 a year and we haven't even touched insurance or R.E. taxes!

From my relatively uneducated point of view as it relates to real estate, it would seem to me that one of the biggest deterrents to sales of condo's. are these monthly fees. I think a lot of would be buyers (including me) could probably enjoy 2-3 months of beachside vacations in May and September on $6-$12,000 a year and not have to worry about the other problems that go with ownership. Don't mean to rain on anyone's parade - just wanted to offer my 2c from this side of the fence.

 

[SHELLY]

I think a lot of would be buyers (including me) could probably enjoy 2-3 months of beachside vacations in May and September on $6-$12,000 a year and not have to worry about the other problems that go with ownership. Don't mean to rain on anyone's parade - just wanted to offer my 2c from this side of the fence.

For most people, and until prices come down to earth, this makes absolute sense--both common and financial.

What some people still don't seem to realize is that a huge number of people who bought homes and condos during the bubble, had absolutely no intention of holding on to them this long...they intended to sell them in a year or two, at twice the price they paid, to waves of rich baby boomers. Good luck with that.

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[Gypsea]

Wow!!! :shock:

 

[30ashopper]

For most people, and until prices come down to earth, this makes absolute sense--both common and financial.

What some people still don't seem to realize is that a huge number of people who bought homes and condos during the bubble, had absolutely no intention of holding on to them this long...they intended to sell them in a year or two, at twice the price they paid, to waves of rich baby boomers. Good luck with that.

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This market has been moving slowly downward, but I sense the pace may pick up this year. Nothing I see at this point indicates we are any where near a bottom on price, including the condo market now that I'm paying a bit more attention to it. I'm seeing some low ball REO's finally hit the market in areas where private listings are 150% higher than the REOs. Sales for March and April were way off, foreclosure filings are still increasing, and a very large number of ARM resets still loom on the horizon. I've recently re-adjusted my purchase plans pushing them back by at least a year, well into 2010.

 

[Joe Mammy]

$6,000 to $12,000 a year and we haven't even touched insurance or R.E. taxes!

Actually, almost all of the condo association fees include exterior insurance which is the biggest nut. Many also include water, sewage, trash pickup and basic cable.

You're going to have to pay for insurance one way or another unless you pay cash for a single family home and choose to roll the dice and not buy insurance.

 

[Joe Mammy]

This market has been moving slowly downward, but I sense the pace may pick up this year. Nothing I see at this point indicates we are any where near a bottom on price, including the condo market now that I'm paying a bit more attention to it. I'm seeing some low ball REO's finally hit the market in areas where private listings are 150% higher than the REOs. Sales for March and April were way off, foreclosure filings are still increasing, and a very large number of ARM resets still loom on the horizon. I've recently re-adjusted my purchase plans pushing them back by at least a year, well into 2010.

REOs and short sales are dictating market value. I'm all over them. If the short sales do not close before foreclosure they will just be relisted as REOs post foreclosure- at or 10-20% below market value.

I keep beating the same drum- it's up to the realtors to sell the short sales and REOs before we'll ever see the market appreciate. What is encourageing is the for the second straight month the short sale ratio to active listings has decreased.

 

[Gypsea]

REOs and short sales are dictating market value. I'm all over them. If the short sales do not close before foreclosure they will just be relisted as REOs post foreclosure- at or 10-20% below market value.

I keep beating the same drum- it's up to the realtors to sell the short sales and REOs before we'll ever see the market appreciate. What is encourageing is the for the second straight month the short sale ratio to active listings has decreased.

What's the ratio?

 

[SHELLY]

What is encourageing is the for the second straight month the short sale ratio to active listings has decreased.

Is that because the short sales are being sold off; or are they dropping into REO; or are the number of non-short-sale active listing increasing?

Can you post the numbers you've used to calculate the ratio starting in Jan 2008? Thanx

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