Correction: Panhandle real estate sell off just starting
- Thread starter GaltsGulch
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redfisher said:
6 months to 2 years? That's a sucker's bet. They'll probably raise, lower, and raise them again during that time!
How about a shorter-term outlook? Two more rate hikes have pretty much been forecasted...now there's chatter that they may go for three...what do you think about that?
With the ECB and BOJ joining the rate hike party, the rules of the game have changed since a month ago--interesting times are ahead.
I spy some JOE investors. For those who are contemplating, just consider their inventory and the capital outlay associated with amenities and infrastructure. The latter includes the new airport, which isn't a freebie to JOE. You will also want to consider their buildout period. A good example is Seaside (although it is not a publicly traded company, of course), where they are scrambling to reduce their maintenance costs, homeowners association dues, and support the level of amenities that are available to almost anyone living in the area. I mean, I think Seaside is a great destination, especially for families. But we stopped looking there as soon as we realized that their marketing angle would translate into some very tall costs for owners to absorb as the project reached buildout. Oh, yes...there was also a road through it.
SHELLY said:
I definitely agree that people who are just starting out or who don't have a financial cushion will make their decisions based on different criteria (and comfort with risk) than people who have been investing a while and have created more of a cushion. People should make wise choices based on a lot of different perspectives (positive and negative; short-term and long-term), as well as their current (and desired future) situation. They also have to be willing to change their plans if things don't turn out as planned (work more years before retiring, live a simpler life, etc.).
Much as we hope our planning (and risk-taking or lack of risk-taking) will pay off, anything could happen to change our best laid plans. And frankly, changes in real estate markets is just one of many unknowns in our lives and it's by far not the most important thing. A very wise woman once told me when I was just a teenager that if you (and the people you love) have good health then that's worth more than anything money could buy.
paula, i love your down to earth reasoning. you are a calming person in a port of storm !!! to address the short term forecast of interest rates, 2 rate hikes are baked into the bond mkt and probably a third. watch the fed funds futures market. the new fed chairman is a very smart and saavy person. he is not about to destroy the entire economy by going crazy raising rates. japan's rates have been about zero for 5 years, so there starting to raise rates is by no means surprising. the biggest fallout from japan raising rates and continuing the same, is that investors were borrowing money in japan for nothing and investing the proceeds in u.s. treasuries(arbitrage). it will take many many rate hikes by the boj to alter that strategy. i am more concerned about the hurricane season being as devastating as sj's post foretells. but i will stick to my prediction that late this year the bottom is hit in sowal real estate. a derivation of an old wall street adage: sell in anticipation, buy on the news. by this fall all the bad news will have been acted upon !! speculators, adjustable rates holders, people that bought at the top and can't hang on, people effected by buildouts, will all be flushed. i also think st. joe will alter there ridiculous extension policy and buy those lots back from people that are past build out, for the ORIGINAL release price. they will then come up with a new scheme to market those lots WITH PLANS for a relative bargain, with the catch being the new buyers must start building within 60 days. real estate agents out there be prepared for blast email !!
Thanks, Goofer. I never forget that my grandmother always lived in old apartments with old furniture -- and her apartment was my favorite place on earth because she was always so happy to see us, she cooked delicious and wonderful smelling food, and she never wanted for more than she had. She was basically a very happy and fun-loving person though she had very little in terms of material things. She had endured great losses in her life -- more than real estate bubbles, yet was still so happy with what she had -- and for her grandchildren 
. So, I think that, through the way she lived, she taught me that happiness and feelings of abundance are in one's minds and hearts, not in their real estate or other investments. In fact, our cottages at the beach have some of her old furniture (painted beach white, of course) and they are some of our most precious possessions (but if a hurricane came and took them away, we'd have to just "let it go" as the Buddhists would say).
Gosh, this real estate thread makes me too sentimental... I better go back to the lounge >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And thanks for your perspectives on the market, Goofer.
. So, I think that, through the way she lived, she taught me that happiness and feelings of abundance are in one's minds and hearts, not in their real estate or other investments. In fact, our cottages at the beach have some of her old furniture (painted beach white, of course) and they are some of our most precious possessions (but if a hurricane came and took them away, we'd have to just "let it go" as the Buddhists would say).Gosh, this real estate thread makes me too sentimental... I better go back to the lounge >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And thanks for your perspectives on the market, Goofer.
Cork On the Ocean
directionally challenged
goofer44 said:
Hi Goofer,
Paula is a sweetie, isn't she? Just wanted to share that I was speaking to a client yesterday about the best move to make with his watercolor lot. He said that JOE is not taking back people's lots or at least discouraging it. Makes sense. Also that apparently they haven't been enforcing the build out penalties. He really wasn't too concerned about them pushing the issue if he didn't meet the date. Does anybody know more about this? Is JOE letting up or giving all these people with buildouts a break because they don't want to have to buy it back?
Could you clarify where you stand on baby boomers and condo sales???
I'm not sure everyone knows yet. ;-)
Brokeback Record! Sorry...sometimes I just cannot resist!!!
Boy guys, I understand! I can only take this in small doses. Thank God I have a life. After a couple of days of this, I feel like offing myself to put me out of my misery.
Incomprehensible to me. I need a little therapy.
:funn: :clap_1: :rofl: :funn: OK. Feel much better. Can hang on for another day.
Gee, Cork... I also have a bad girl side, but people have to know me longer to see it...and it doesn't involve real estate (or anything I could get arrested for!) 
Shelly, there's a woman who has written several books about small homes. The ideas are great, though some of the homes are over 2000 square feet, which doesn't seem small at all to me. I'd see a small home as 1500 square feet or under.
I read something years ago that said the problem with very large homes is that it encourages family members not to interact with each other as much as small homes do (unless you make the effort of course). We have a regular size old (1912) two-story house (not big/not small) and, aside from liking the old look of the house, the thing I like best next is that wherever the kids are, I can hear them. One of my daughters will go to her room (right upstairs from my favorite chair) and I can hear her dancing (and she doesn't know I can hear her). I think that's so cute and imagine that she's dancing in front of the mirror. When I'm downstairs, I can hear the kids when they sing in the shower, too. Yech, when the boyfriends start coming around, we'll hear those kissing sounds, too...
I also have a bad girl side, but people have to know me longer to see it...and it doesn't involve real estate (or anything I could get arrested for!) Shelly, there's a woman who has written several books about small homes. The ideas are great, though some of the homes are over 2000 square feet, which doesn't seem small at all to me. I'd see a small home as 1500 square feet or under.
I read something years ago that said the problem with very large homes is that it encourages family members not to interact with each other as much as small homes do (unless you make the effort of course). We have a regular size old (1912) two-story house (not big/not small) and, aside from liking the old look of the house, the thing I like best next is that wherever the kids are, I can hear them. One of my daughters will go to her room (right upstairs from my favorite chair) and I can hear her dancing (and she doesn't know I can hear her). I think that's so cute and imagine that she's dancing in front of the mirror. When I'm downstairs, I can hear the kids when they sing in the shower, too. Yech, when the boyfriends start coming around, we'll hear those kissing sounds, too...
Paula said:Gee, Cork...
Shelly, there's a woman who has written several books about small homes. The ideas are great, though some of the homes are over 2000 square feet, which doesn't seem small at all to me. I'd see a small home as 1500 square feet or under.
I read something years ago that said the problem with very large homes is that it encourages family members not to interact with each other as much as small homes do (unless you make the effort of course). We have a regular size old (1912) two-story house (not big/not small) and, aside from liking the old look of the house, the thing I like best next is that wherever the kids are, I can hear them. One of my daughters will go to her room (right upstairs from my favorite chair) and I can hear her dancing (and she doesn't know I can hear her). I think that's so cute and imagine that she's dancing in front of the mirror. When I'm downstairs, I can hear the kids when they sing in the shower, too. Yech, when the boyfriends start coming around, we'll hear those kissing sounds, too...
Paula...I am living proof of this theory! We lived in a 5100 sq. ft. home for 7 years. It was built in 1926 and had much charm, but after essentially redoing the entire house I realized that it wasn't paint and wallpaper it needed to feel homey. It was just too big and I felt like I was losing my family in it! We moved into a 3700 sq. ft. one story, 6 yrs ago and I love it. Our place in WC has 1600ish sq. ft. and like Goldilocks...it's just right!
We toured a new home in our neighborhood with over 7,000 sq. ft. Who really needs all that space?