Be cautious on reading too much into the model shift west. Euro had been trending far west and is now trending more to the east. GFS just the opposite. Even in the NHC discussions they aren't showing great confidence with the modeling. A much better picture will materialize by Monday morning once he passes the Keys. Regardless expect a lot of rain and significant beach erosion. Probably will lose the remaining turtle nests....bummer
Hurricane Isaac
- Thread starter Kurt
- Start date
-
Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.
We are here! Just want to let you know that we really appreciate the "local" perspective and updates. Hate having to endure the drama on the weather channel. In the past we've always kept track of storms from our home in Southern Illinois...it's quite a bit different being here and needing updated and accurate information. Because we are staying in Leeward II condominium, beach level...before we left home I made a "plan B" reservation in Enterprise, Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday night. I have the option to cancel by Monday, late afternoon. Still holding out hope that we won't have to leave. We don't fly out of Panama City until Labor DAy! Keep posting....and thanks again!!! 
Hi All,
I had to re-register today but have been around sowal.com for quite sometime, though haven't posted in forever. My husband and I got married in Seaside in 2005 and our latest trip to the area (Seacrest beach) was in May.
Anyway, I live in Virginia and we have a local, private meteorologist here who has gained quite a following as of a couple of years ago as he predicted our snowfall far earlier and far more accurately than ANY other meteorologist (TV or internet). (Predicting snow in central VA is extremely tricky) He, Dave Tolleris, makes a living doing long range forecasts for agriculture.
That said, he has been predicting Isaac make a landfall around Mobile, AL for several days now. If you are interested I will add his information below. He tends to update his facebook account much more frequently and he is / can be very brash and direct. While he isn't always right, he is usually better than most.
I sincerely wish everyone there the best. These storms break my heart. Our 2005 wedding was actually supposed to be a 2004 wedding but hurricane Ivan had other plans.
Be safe!
Sue
http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk
http://www.wxrisk.com/
I had to re-register today but have been around sowal.com for quite sometime, though haven't posted in forever. My husband and I got married in Seaside in 2005 and our latest trip to the area (Seacrest beach) was in May.
Anyway, I live in Virginia and we have a local, private meteorologist here who has gained quite a following as of a couple of years ago as he predicted our snowfall far earlier and far more accurately than ANY other meteorologist (TV or internet). (Predicting snow in central VA is extremely tricky) He, Dave Tolleris, makes a living doing long range forecasts for agriculture.
That said, he has been predicting Isaac make a landfall around Mobile, AL for several days now. If you are interested I will add his information below. He tends to update his facebook account much more frequently and he is / can be very brash and direct. While he isn't always right, he is usually better than most.
I sincerely wish everyone there the best. These storms break my heart. Our 2005 wedding was actually supposed to be a 2004 wedding but hurricane Ivan had other plans.
Be safe!
Sue
http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk
http://www.wxrisk.com/
We are here! Just want to let you know that we really appreciate the "local" perspective and updates. Hate having to endure the drama on the weather channel. In the past we've always kept track of storms from our home in Southern Illinois...it's quite a bit different being here and needing updated and accurate information. Because we are staying in Leeward II condominium, beach level...before we left home I made a "plan B" reservation in Enterprise, Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday night. I have the option to cancel by Monday, late afternoon. Still holding out hope that we won't have to leave. We don't fly out of Panama City until Labor DAy! Keep posting....and thanks again!!!
You're welcome!
Let's remind everyone about one of the top commandments for weathering (pun intended) a tropical event:
Do not watch the weather channel more than once an hour (preferably less) and only one segment at a time. Otherwise Jim Cantore will eat your brain and you will become convinced you're gonna die.
Even if you are in Albuquerque - no lie!
We are here! Just want to let you know that we really appreciate the "local" perspective and updates. Hate having to endure the drama on the weather channel. In the past we've always kept track of storms from our home in Southern Illinois...it's quite a bit different being here and needing updated and accurate information. Because we are staying in Leeward II condominium, beach level...before we left home I made a "plan B" reservation in Enterprise, Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday night. I have the option to cancel by Monday, late afternoon. Still holding out hope that we won't have to leave. We don't fly out of Panama City until Labor DAy! Keep posting....and thanks again!!!
Beachma,
We'll be keeping our fingers crossed for you! We are coming to Leeward on the 8th. And this trip is our "research/home searching" trip as well as vacation trip, as my husband and I are planning to ditch the California rat race and move to SoWal next year. Guess we may end up getting some first-hand insight into what the area faces after a heavy storm (praying it's just that - a heavy storm - and that the models continue to take the projected landfall further west).
In any event, hope everyone in our "future hometown" stays safe and sound - we're thinking good thoughts for all of you and looking forward to meeting you soon!
Tropical Storm Isaac #3 update
For Immediate Release
August 26, 2012
The Walton County Emergency Operations Center has now moved into Level 2 activation status. As of the morning meeting, the following information was provided:
-Our area is currently under a Hurricane Watch.
-According to the track of the storm at this time, it is taking a western track.
-If the track stays on course, we will deal with 45-60 mph hour winds, with gusts of 75 mph in land. Coastal areas will have winds of approximately 80 mph.
-Rainfall and storm surge will be of much significance. Storm surge is expected to be between 2-4 ft. (with tide will be between 3-5 ft.). Rainfall totals could range between 10-12 inches. Coastal and river flooding can be expected.
-Tornadoes will be possible.
-Again, if the track stays on course, we can expect Tropical Storm force winds to arrive between 5-7 p.m. on Monday. Storm surge is expected to arrive Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday.
More information will be forthcoming, as another meeting is scheduled to take place at 10:15 a.m.
For Immediate Release
August 26, 2012
The Walton County Emergency Operations Center has now moved into Level 2 activation status. As of the morning meeting, the following information was provided:
-Our area is currently under a Hurricane Watch.
-According to the track of the storm at this time, it is taking a western track.
-If the track stays on course, we will deal with 45-60 mph hour winds, with gusts of 75 mph in land. Coastal areas will have winds of approximately 80 mph.
-Rainfall and storm surge will be of much significance. Storm surge is expected to be between 2-4 ft. (with tide will be between 3-5 ft.). Rainfall totals could range between 10-12 inches. Coastal and river flooding can be expected.
-Tornadoes will be possible.
-Again, if the track stays on course, we can expect Tropical Storm force winds to arrive between 5-7 p.m. on Monday. Storm surge is expected to arrive Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday.
More information will be forthcoming, as another meeting is scheduled to take place at 10:15 a.m.
Last edited:
Thanks for all the informative updates! It is great to have locals here posting for all of us following the hurricane. This is our first one on the coast. We have lived in the Seagrove area for the past year and love it!!!
Less confidence than usual in the track. From Masters new post this morning:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2206
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions.
And:
The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2206
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions.
And:
The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.